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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 19, 2023

[ Wednesday, January 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, January 20, 2023 ]

DAY 111 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/20/2023 07:00:17 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.41°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.203
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.18 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 99 in
SWE DAY: 19
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 34.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -173

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-20 07:00:17OBSERVATION2023111-17326.4099215.5899420.9999398.813778750.180000000000061.15000000000015.696.8400000000001TT-5.59008-3.5900819351.72253113442 34.7550323729060.2028239793842316 1114126WETL
2023-01-20 03:00:13OBSERVATION2023111-17326.4099215.5899420.9999398.813778750.180000000000061.15000000000015.696.8400000000001TT-5.59008-3.5900819351.72253113442 34.7550323729060.2028239793842316 1114126WETL
2023-01-19 11:00:02FORECAST2023111-17322.92815.60219.2659500.975.696.66TT-9.072-7.07219349.3262227008733.1859911565830.11479392783156161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 07:00:14FORECAST2023111-17322.40614.82818.61795.02769708333300.975.696.66TT-9.594-7.59419349.3437093980733.1973281946480.10439405822962161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:14FORECAST2023111-17322.42415.54818.98695.02769708333300.975.696.66TT-9.576-7.57619349.3437093980733.1973281946480.10474094964287161113124.5WETL
2023-01-18 23:00:02FORECAST2023111-17322.40614.3618.3839101.145.696.83TT-9.594-10.59419346.7878399747431.5576934377010.10439405822962161114126WETL
2023-01-18 19:00:02FORECAST2023111-17322.26214.30618.2849101.145.696.83TT-9.738-10.73819346.7878399747431.5576934377010.10164876621036161114126WETL
2023-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2023111-17322.5514.77418.6629101.145.696.83TT-9.45-10.4519346.7878399747431.5576934377010.10719250563016161114126WETL
2023-01-18 11:00:05FORECAST2023111-17323.07216.32219.69793.85403296767401.145.696.83TT-8.928-9.92819348.6016309786532.7176689664550.11778795574505161114126WETL
2023-01-18 07:00:25FORECAST2023111-17322.94616.4319.68893.3807096565901.115.696.8TT-9.054-10.05419348.3017339676432.5246630925190.1151652014122161114126WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:10FORECAST2023111-17323.55817.47420.51693.39284454534901.135.696.82TT-8.442-9.44219348.3094271209532.5296081807860.12829796150713161114126WETL
2023-01-17 23:00:07FORECAST2023111-17323.6317.38420.50793.02414534283801.055.696.74TT-8.37-9.3719348.0755770714832.379433071790.1299085570819161114126WETL
2023-01-17 19:00:06FORECAST2023111-17323.66617.83420.7593.0863912006901.075.696.76TT-8.334-9.33419348.1150723094232.4047758038510.13071906657365161114126WETL
2023-01-17 15:00:05FORECAST2023111-17323.91817.56420.74192.71281861450500.985.696.67TT-8.082-9.08219347.8779453097232.2527448434870.13649019552818161113124.5WETL
2023-01-17 11:00:06FORECAST2023111-17324.11617.43820.77793.66651368607900.925.696.61TT-7.884-7.88419348.4828621384632.6411747758560.14114483556207161113124.5WETL
2023-01-17 07:00:23FORECAST2023111-17324.18817.29420.74193.73172500060700.955.696.64TT-7.812-7.81219348.5241713585532.6677717858440.14286373576671161113124.5WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:26FORECAST2023111-17324.1716.8820.52593.48932809805300.95.696.59TT-7.83-7.8319348.3705863449432.5689320465130.14243269381848161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 23:00:06FORECAST2023111-17324.09816.44820.27390.01774515336300.965.686.64TT-7.902-10.90219346.1605511941331.1605922795410.14071730457591161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 19:00:07FORECAST2023111-17324.11616.55620.33690.09502712975500.965.686.64TT-7.884-10.88419346.2099618466531.1917959051650.14114483556207161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 15:00:08FORECAST2023111-17323.68417.20420.44490.18023809889700.985.686.66TT-8.316-12.31619346.264430702231.2262088059030.1311256256084161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:09FORECAST2023111-17324.33217.3320.83190.01040153567300.935.686.61TT-7.668-12.66819346.1558555075431.1576275481580.14634370709302161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:23FORECAST2023111-17324.6217.63621.12890.94959616134401.025.76.72TT-7.38-12.3819346.7556890940431.5372898897520.15347264215877161114126WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:22FORECAST2023111-17324.85417.38421.11991.4839072576701.125.716.83TT-7.146-11.14619347.0962984606531.7537255778550.15943106876243161114126WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:07FORECAST2023111-17323.82817.34820.58887.70046415790400.975.896.86TT-8.172-15.17219344.6744703846230.2281110361110.13440944949771161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:06FORECAST2023111-17324.31417.04220.67887.58947719424500.935.916.84TT-7.686-15.68619344.6030743006330.1836031175220.14590563317493161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:07FORECAST2023111-17324.20618.03221.11987.7567240171500.945.916.85TT-7.794-15.79419344.710653738230.2506777058750.14329565601329161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2023111-17323.4517.67220.56191.73108571038100.936.087.01TT-8.55-17.5519347.2537119488131.8539600140240.12590807782768161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:17FORECAST2023111-17323.61217.67220.64290.99928562230700.856.056.9TT-8.388-18.38819346.7873843264531.5574042365350.12950460585434161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:17FORECAST2023111-17322.62217.1519.88692.34664729212501.056.167.21TT-9.378-16.37819347.6452978344432.1038777018830.1086117761484161114126WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:05FORECAST2023111-17321.68617.83419.7697.1564218878050.059055151.429055156.167.58905515TT-10.314-16.31419350.684016808234.0712042863280.091191327344106161114126WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:07FORECAST2023111-17322.0117.34819.67997.4414332663580.066929171.486929176.217.69692917TT-9.99-17.9919350.8629188393634.1885856917250.096971261729279161114126WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:10FORECAST2023111-17322.15417.18619.6797.6451595960450.074803191.524803196.177.69480319TT-9.846-17.84619350.9907187834434.2725447523390.099624453259829161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:10FORECAST2023111-17321.93816.66419.30198.8323239550550.122047311.482047316.177.65204731TT-10.062-18.06219351.7341270068734.7627011863910.095664219666531161114126WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:24FORECAST2023111-17321.77617.27619.52697.5378939167590.11811031.39811036.057.4481103TT-10.224-18.22419350.9234379932734.2283330678920.092770700849868161114126WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:15FORECAST2023111-17321.8317.00619.41897.6644229878780.11811031.57811035.867.4381103TT-10.17-15.1719351.0027995158734.2804858818480.093727951380849161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:08FORECAST2023111-17321.48817.83419.661106.274719472350.169291432.039291436.438.46929143TT-10.512-18.51219356.3438612782837.8703438930450.087786810172698161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:10FORECAST2023111-17321.75818.0519.904105.987265242680.161417412.031417416.368.39141741TT-10.242-19.24219356.1674285885937.7492117246230.092453224049284161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:08FORECAST2023111-17321.84818.2320.039106.365058998480.188976482.258976486.258.50897648TT-10.152-15.15219356.3992829698937.9084307601070.094048644454959161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:06FORECAST2023111-17323.91819.18421.551107.678482448020.141732362.291732366.268.55173236TT-8.082-16.08219357.2036100381938.4631426538670.13649019552818161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:21FORECAST2023111-17323.91819.16621.542107.274285040450.141732362.261732366.38.56173236TT-8.082-16.08219356.9563694473638.2922393230990.13649019552818161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:13FORECAST2023111-17323.84619.47221.659105.514437627940.133858342.073858346.18.17385834TT-8.154-18.15419355.8769376850437.5501549445910.13482385171756161115127.5WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:04FORECAST2023111-17324.13419.9422.037105.340659028830.185039471.485039474.726.20503947TT-7.866-16.86619355.7700856957237.477055289930.14157324394225161114126WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:10FORECAST2023111-17323.77419.56221.668105.876313304240.185039471.545039474.776.31503947TT-8.226-16.22619356.0992944169737.7024804631090.13317147858776161115127.5WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:04FORECAST2023111-17323.21619.18421.2104.938909336790.224409571.674409574.476.14440957TT-8.784-17.78419355.5228795161137.3081832206970.12083665276211161115127.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:53:01FORECAST2023111-17323.1819.20221.191104.923304050340.224409571.674409574.386.05440957TT-8.82-17.8219355.5132721201437.3016271445930.12006933803566161115127.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:41FORECAST2023111-17323.1819.20221.191NAN0.224409571.674409574.386.05440957TT-8.82-17.8219NANNAN0.120069338035661611155237.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:26FORECAST2023111-17323.1819.20221.191NAN0.224409571.674409574.386.05440957TT-8.82-17.8219NANNAN0.120069338035661611155237.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:49:22FORECAST2023111-17320.80420.80420.804NAN0.027559071.477559074.385.85755907TF-11.196-20.19619NANNAN0.0767519055318261611145230WETL
2023-01-12 13:48:26FORECAST2023111-17320.80420.80420.804NAN0.027559071.477559074.385.85755907TF-11.196-20.19619NANNAN0.0767519055318261611145230WETL
2023-01-12 11:00:11FORECAST2023111-17325.724.1924.945102.045475648040.23972.71974.687.3997TT-6.313.719353.7350103511636.0970573846480.18221518586435161115127.5WETL
2023-01-12 07:00:26FORECAST2023111-17325.6924.3225.005101.819873748190.212.694.987.67TT-6.3110.6919353.5950566789736.0030040290370.18193454241667161115127.5WETL
2023-01-12 03:00:14FORECAST2023111-17325.3325.1125.22102.498740491920.12482.72485.147.8648TT-6.6717.3319354.0159539669836.286189395660.1720114773229161115127.5WETL