MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 18, 2023

[ Tuesday, January 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 19, 2023 ]

DAY 110 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/19/2023 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.289
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.99 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 95 in
SWE DAY: 18
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.40 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 33.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -174

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-19 07:00:12OBSERVATION2023110-17428.5999821.1299824.8649895.0276970833330.559999999999950.989999999999955.676.6599999999999TT-3.400027.5999818348.39739864208 33.1074024627810.2885063581675216 2113126WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:12OBSERVATION2023110-17428.5999821.1299824.8649895.0276970833330.559999999999950.989999999999955.676.6599999999999TT-3.400027.5999818348.39739864208 33.1074024627810.2885063581675216 2113126WETL
2023-01-18 11:00:02FORECAST2023110-17425.68218.37422.02893.8540329676740.728346851.158346855.676.82834685TT-6.3184.68218347.6524949600632.6285887232760.18585097184702161114126WETL
2023-01-18 07:00:23FORECAST2023110-17425.62817.92421.77693.380709656590.696850771.126850775.676.79685077TT-6.3724.62818347.3514561724132.4359254776290.18419295629208161114126WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:10FORECAST2023110-17425.93419.72422.82993.3928445453490.716535821.146535825.676.81653582TT-6.0664.93418347.3591786153132.440861769820.19370984486412161114126WETL
2023-01-17 23:00:04FORECAST2023110-17426.97819.83223.40593.0241453428380.751968911.071968915.676.74196891TT-5.0224.97818347.1244382451232.2909541953650.2283637115202161114126WETL
2023-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2023110-17426.81619.79623.30693.086391200690.771653961.091653965.676.76165396TT-5.1844.81618347.1640838504832.3162517201350.22276898885958161114126WETL
2023-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2023110-17427.21219.99423.60392.7128186145050.681102731.001102735.676.67110273TT-4.7885.21218346.9260540539632.164492322150.23658238977852161114126WETL
2023-01-17 11:00:05FORECAST2023110-17427.89621.21824.55793.6665136860790.618110570.938110575.676.60811057TT-4.1045.89618347.5332739396832.5522301598390.26151157481936162113126WETL
2023-01-17 07:00:22FORECAST2023110-17427.98621.25424.6293.7317250006070.645669640.965669645.676.63566964TT-4.0145.98618347.5747404334332.5787799874640.26488917435525162113126WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:24FORECAST2023110-17427.98620.26424.12593.4893280980530.625984590.915984595.676.58598459TT-4.0145.98618347.4205706864832.4801157209220.26488917435525162113126WETL
2023-01-16 23:00:04FORECAST2023110-17428.00420.51624.2690.0177451533630.665354690.965354695.676.63535469TT-3.9963.00418345.2021214254231.0743165928740.26556734168704162113126WETL
2023-01-16 19:00:05FORECAST2023110-17428.00420.85824.43190.0950271297550.653543660.973543665.676.64354366TT-3.9963.00418345.2517201956131.1054630976180.26556734168704162113126WETL
2023-01-16 15:00:07FORECAST2023110-17427.5919.95823.77490.1802380988970.685039740.985039745.676.65503974TT-4.411.5918345.3063964265831.1398130468210.25019517763913162113126WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:08FORECAST2023110-17427.4120.42623.91890.0104015356730.66929170.93929175.676.6092917TT-4.591.4118345.1974078612731.0713572906660.24366166490551161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:21FORECAST2023110-17426.8720.24623.55890.9495961613440.740157881.050157885.676.72015788TT-5.130.8718345.7995251516931.4503271653310.22462518042925161114126WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:22FORECAST2023110-17426.85220.35423.60391.483907257670.818898081.158898085.676.82889808TT-5.1481.85218346.1414312962131.666370598740.22400547881076161114126WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:06FORECAST2023110-17426.49220.60623.54987.7004641579040.720472831.000472835.866.86047283TT-5.508-0.50818343.7103827657330.1435601044450.21181672348726161114126WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:05FORECAST2023110-17426.43818.28422.36187.5894771942450.720472830.980472835.866.84047283TT-5.562-1.56218343.6387148604830.0991353783320.21002241482076161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:06FORECAST2023110-17425.50218.39221.94787.756724017150.665354690.985354695.866.84535469TT-6.498-2.49818343.7467038776230.1660846239930.18036011406153161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2023110-17425.86218.3222.09191.7310857103810.625984591.145984595.867.00598459TT-6.138-3.13818346.2994440935931.7664239876070.19144408392394161114126WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:17FORECAST2023110-17425.48417.97821.73190.9992856223070.606299541.076299545.826.89629954TT-6.516-3.51618345.8313410551131.470404981820.17981666974129161114126WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:17FORECAST2023110-17426.2418.39222.31692.3466472921250.846457151.386457155.827.20645715TT-5.76-0.7618346.6925208364332.0158919404990.20351998815482161114126WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:04FORECAST2023110-17426.85218.44622.64996.7202043563080.956693431.736693435.797.52669343TT-5.148-0.14818349.4677002146133.8005873806860.22400547881076161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:07FORECAST2023110-17427.24818.66222.95596.9948964056250.933071371.853071375.787.63307137TT-4.752-1.75218349.6409753979533.9133901878860.23786106690094161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:09FORECAST2023110-17426.90618.53622.72197.1474208980921.035433631.865433635.757.61543363TT-5.094-2.09418349.7371353475733.9760606913030.2258674913181161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:10FORECAST2023110-17426.27617.88822.08297.9536331328980.921260341.811260345.727.53126034TT-5.724-1.72418350.2447981013634.3077504599270.20469325144152161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:24FORECAST2023110-17426.43818.7722.60496.7475775620230.925197351.685197355.647.32519735TT-5.562-1.56218349.4849726008133.8118244934580.21002241482076161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:15FORECAST2023110-17426.9618.8622.9196.8593231168130.952756421.722756425.67.32275642TT-5.040.9618349.5554711540433.8577063277590.22773820957779161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:08FORECAST2023110-17427.39219.99423.693105.044078209111.295276292.085276296.218.29527629TT-4.608-1.60818354.6650780416937.2554661958520.24301341072976161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:09FORECAST2023110-17427.4119.97623.693104.797041463721.303150312.063150316.178.23315031TT-4.59-2.5918354.5124067208637.1518513865310.24366166490551161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:07FORECAST2023110-17428.88619.7624.323104.963865206921.448819682.158819686.168.31881968TT-3.1140.88618354.6155160605137.2218152280580.299836743757071621151210WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:06FORECAST2023110-17427.78820.06623.927106.63359110141.448819682.208819686.28.40881968TT-4.212-2.21218355.6451259185937.923716934410.25748780330141621151210WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:21FORECAST2023110-17427.7720.04823.909106.241525055621.440945662.210945666.218.42094566TT-4.23-2.2318355.4037567822737.7586371310430.256820310921871621151210WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:13FORECAST2023110-17427.28419.41823.351104.553746624811.362205461.962205466.088.04220546TT-4.716-3.71618354.3619542771237.0498699809630.23914351846091161115127.5WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:04FORECAST2023110-17426.70820.15623.432103.912847447571.149606921.329606924.696.01960692TF-5.292-3.29218353.9651797471536.7815297248170.21908290443273161114126WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:09FORECAST2023110-17427.03219.90423.468104.445692759891.196851041.446851044.686.12685104TT-4.968-1.96818354.2951044270237.0045976233160.23024598829575161114126WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2023110-17425.720.98423.342103.213535180591.165354961.455354964.465.91535496TF-6.3-3.318353.53150470836.4892363986260.18640568957323161114126WETL
2023-01-12 13:53:01FORECAST2023110-17425.95221.00223.477103.198134320421.165354961.455354964.375.82535496TF-6.048-3.04818353.5219452690636.4828051930930.19427882400343161114126WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:40FORECAST2023110-17425.95221.00223.477109.742493057251.165354961.455354964.375.82535496TF-6.048-3.04818357.5505851775739.2384926114650.19427882400343161114126WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:26FORECAST2023110-17425.95221.00223.477NAN1.165354961.455354964.375.82535496TF-6.048-3.04818NANNAN0.194278824003431611145230WETL
2023-01-12 13:49:22FORECAST2023110-17425.95221.00223.477NAN1.165354961.455354964.375.82535496TF-6.048-3.04818NANNAN0.194278824003431611145230WETL
2023-01-12 13:48:26FORECAST2023110-17425.95221.00223.477NAN1.165354961.455354964.375.82535496TF-6.048-3.04818NANNAN0.194278824003431611145230WETL
2023-01-12 11:00:11FORECAST2023110-17431.7922.6327.21100.292478775041.67932.66934.497.1593TT-0.2125.7918351.7116739919335.2740355987690.424255336507431621151210WETL
2023-01-12 07:00:26FORECAST2023110-17431.8722.6327.25100.287141776721.67932.66934.797.4593TT-0.1322.8718351.7083366463435.2718238213060.427861117411561621151210WETL
2023-01-12 03:00:14FORECAST2023110-17434.0221.2227.62101.605970209611.78722.71725.027.7372TT2.0230.0218352.5316556859635.8193209055710.526049058168651631151212.5WETL
2023-01-11 23:00:10FORECAST2023110-17431.722.8527.27599.6903914560711.33311.67315.467.1331TT-0.324.718351.3348897092435.024712687290.420206411556141621151210WETL
2023-01-11 19:00:06FORECAST2023110-17434.0421.7227.8898.3763410739721.19031.54035.186.7203TT2.0440.0418350.5105573899134.4819461438170.526964280575851631151212.5WETL
2023-01-11 15:00:09FORECAST2023110-17434.0522.1828.11597.2970184530661.06791.38795.336.7179TT2.0529.0518349.8314138113634.0375535250650.52742183870971631141210WETL
2023-01-11 11:00:10FORECAST2023110-17428.922.2125.555103.024314999411.17271.92275.697.6127TT-3.120.918353.4140282741136.4102381741210.300396470426031621151210WETL
2023-01-11 07:00:26FORECAST2023110-17428.9525.1227.03599.8645715314070.89891.64895.827.4689TT-3.0523.9518351.4439502752135.0967995115390.302399333055921621151210WETL
2023-01-11 03:00:30FORECAST2023110-17429.0127.9628.48596.0017893468530.49241.12246.27.3224TT-2.9923.0118349.0139535156833.5059640445250.30481063310055162114128WETL