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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 17, 2023

[ Monday, January 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 18, 2023 ]

DAY 109 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/18/2023 07:00:20 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.64°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.268
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 9

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.41 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.13 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.49 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 91 in
SWE DAY: 17
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -175

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-18 07:00:20OBSERVATION2023109-17528.3124.6399826.4749990.585448750.409999999999971.135.366.49TT-3.699.3117344.60554843001 31.2162482462720.2675439903484616 2114128WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:08OBSERVATION2023109-17528.3124.6399826.4749990.585448750.409999999999971.135.366.49TT-3.699.3117344.60554843001 31.2162482462720.2675439903484616 2114128WETL
2023-01-17 11:00:02FORECAST2023109-17527.03220.15623.59491.2119673084950.303149771.023149775.366.38314977TT-4.9688.03217345.0083098100831.4688866755560.22157722469158161114126WETL
2023-01-17 07:00:21FORECAST2023109-17527.37420.26423.81991.1678416768580.299212761.019212765.366.37921276TT-4.6268.37417344.979964347531.4510787713210.23341736399969161114126WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:23FORECAST2023109-17527.46419.81423.63991.0506316162420.267716680.987716685.366.34771668TT-4.5368.46417344.9046554151331.403786722930.23659043804406161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 23:00:01FORECAST2023109-17526.70821.14623.92787.2292065191170.287401730.997401735.366.35740173TT-5.2924.70817342.4370198271429.8705095222930.21068327842485161114126WETL
2023-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2023109-17526.74421.07423.90987.3709582038330.31496081.02496085.366.3849608TT-5.2564.74417342.5289825324629.9270854164450.21187800232121161114126WETL
2023-01-16 15:00:04FORECAST2023109-17526.25820.67823.46887.2749573436780.287401730.997401735.366.35740173TT-5.7424.25817342.4667047129629.8887670454530.19608498697252161114126WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:07FORECAST2023109-17526.4219.07622.74887.1782761621910.255905650.965905655.366.32590565TT-5.584.4217342.4039702047529.8501878735410.20126839782631161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:20FORECAST2023109-17526.29422.22624.2687.7940376949060.27559071.00559075.366.3655907TT-5.7064.29417342.8032624223430.0960825430440.19722981889324161114126WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:21FORECAST2023109-17526.27622.08224.17987.9169384450790.295275751.035275755.366.39527575TT-5.7245.27617342.8828830084630.1452133193250.196656899371161114126WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:05FORECAST2023109-17526.0621.32623.69384.2885418581140.248031631.168031635.366.52803163TT-5.943.0617340.5217492442828.7020817147740.18986060160467161114126WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:05FORECAST2023109-17526.31221.5623.93684.23375799570.212598541.152598545.366.51259854TT-5.6882.31217340.4859323086728.6804096230290.19780374487303161114126WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:06FORECAST2023109-17526.25822.3724.31484.5138048943260.267716681.207716685.366.56771668TT-5.7422.25817340.6689707503328.7912309275450.19608498697252161114126WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2023109-17524.94422.123.52288.7431411998060.295275751.405275755.366.76527575TT-7.0560.94417343.4174893070830.4759467440610.15708835844639161114126WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:16FORECAST2023109-17524.78221.07422.92888.0967742919850.240157611.320157615.366.68015761TT-7.2180.78217342.9993439045430.2171357822570.15265960345433161114126WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:16FORECAST2023109-17524.85420.1222.48788.3646217371770.204724521.394724525.366.75472452TT-7.1462.85417343.172702130630.3243260142950.15461763838161114126WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:04FORECAST2023109-17525.50220.0322.76691.8929177864550.413386051.553386055.416.96338605TT-6.4982.50217345.4453368190231.7439799360250.17298148890714161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:06FORECAST2023109-17526.11420.04823.08192.2665335278120.492126251.682126255.417.09212625TT-5.8861.11417345.6847986101631.8951380610190.19154602098999161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:08FORECAST2023109-17525.9720.2123.0991.828109860970.413386051.563386055.416.97338605TT-6.030.9717345.4037762984231.7177759163250.18707186356917161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:08FORECAST2023109-17525.98819.07622.53293.1513473904620.437008111.587008115.416.99700811TT-6.0121.98817346.2509974331832.2537469461920.18762757926973161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:23FORECAST2023109-17525.75418.87822.31691.8951473091990.350393891.480393895.316.79039389TT-6.2461.75417345.4467664626531.7448814915710.1804827332615161114126WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:14FORECAST2023109-17526.45618.62622.54191.8846744413630.507874291.487874295.276.75787429TT-5.5444.45617345.4400508435831.740646610770.20243130202591161114126WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:07FORECAST2023109-17526.3319.8523.0997.5643843493710.574803461.664803465.737.39480346TT-5.671.3317349.0560095401734.0554346742350.19837867663442161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:08FORECAST2023109-17526.38420.17423.27997.327777755070.570866451.630866455.697.32086645TT-5.6160.38417348.906414144833.9582859332030.20010949970286161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:06FORECAST2023109-17526.70820.2123.45997.0004543917070.622047581.452047585.817.26204758TT-5.2921.70817348.6993144635833.8239919490440.21068327842485161114126WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:06FORECAST2023109-17526.00621.23623.62198.4828184536420.700787781.640787785.717.35078778TT-5.9940.006000000000000217349.6358418452634.4331231373330.18818431144047161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:21FORECAST2023109-17525.95221.25423.60398.1091974426630.681102731.641102735.737.37110273TT-6.048-0.04800000000000217349.400127984434.2793661429130.18651716484137161115127.5WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:12FORECAST2023109-17525.64621.6523.64897.0019978491480.578740471.378740475.697.06874047TT-6.354-1.35417348.7002914235333.8246249186620.17724332431734161114126WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2023109-17526.25819.70622.98296.9205383822130.149606380.939606384.325.25960638TF-5.7420.25817348.648724913433.7912221248790.19608498697252161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:08FORECAST2023109-17526.20419.8523.02797.1825277853180.15748040.92748044.395.3174804TF-5.7961.20417348.8145347676133.8986782169770.19437529903653161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2023109-17526.09620.67823.38795.7997514256190.27559070.85559074.285.1355907TF-5.9041.09617347.9381457070633.3323878702270.19098320108767161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:53:00FORECAST2023109-17526.09620.6623.37895.7981158832540.27559070.85559074.195.0455907TF-5.9041.09617347.9371072939733.3317193246310.19098320108767161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:40FORECAST2023109-17526.09620.6623.37897.9054864555220.27559070.85559074.195.0455907TF-5.9041.09617349.2715144415334.1955975264550.19098320108767161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:25FORECAST2023109-17526.09620.6623.37897.9908361855670.27559070.85559074.195.0455907TF-5.9041.09617349.3254083498134.2306888650620.19098320108767161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:49:22FORECAST2023109-17526.09620.6623.37897.9908361855670.27559070.85559074.195.0455907TF-5.9041.09617349.3254083498134.2306888650620.19098320108767161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:48:25FORECAST2023109-17526.09620.6623.37897.9908361855670.27559070.85559074.195.0455907TF-5.9041.09617349.3254083498134.2306888650620.19098320108767161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 11:00:11FORECAST2023109-17533.9726.0730.0292.7335443805940.80381.54384.335.8738TF1.9723.9717345.9838008159232.084304147930.511557676780321631151212.5WETL
2023-01-12 07:00:25FORECAST2023109-17532.725.9329.31592.5174893342310.80381.59384.586.1738TT0.720.717345.8455163496531.996758870170.453549946209931621151210WETL
2023-01-12 03:00:14FORECAST2023109-17534.5627.430.9892.7041328327820.80771.41774.926.3377TT2.5625.5617345.9649806297932.0723835197950.538497563772681631141210WETL
2023-01-11 23:00:09FORECAST2023109-17533.2825.0429.1693.8194025259850.15950.96955.226.1895TF1.2823.2817346.6776484848732.5250898499640.47999350540184162113126WETL
2023-01-11 19:00:06FORECAST2023109-17533.826.4930.14593.3923534491260.14360.88365.045.9236TF1.835.817346.4049985851132.3515780644050.5037800912126163113127.5WETL
2023-01-11 15:00:08FORECAST2023109-17533.8226.5530.18593.5987688823480.14360.88365.166.0436TF1.8224.8217346.5368216471632.4354198785760.50469523305233163113127.5WETL
2023-01-11 11:00:10FORECAST2023109-17529.8824.6327.25595.3669933564690.621.385.456.83TT-2.1221.8817347.6632351992333.1555974415330.32991006363878162114128WETL
2023-01-11 07:00:25FORECAST2023109-17533.9724.6329.395.1010472406150.621.455.516.96TT1.9724.9717347.4941423753633.0470568498760.511557676780321631141210WETL
2023-01-11 03:00:29FORECAST2023109-17533.3925.229.29596.0017893468530.58361.38365.847.2236TT1.3924.3917348.0663873034833.4149959926290.48502219784671162114128WETL
2023-01-10 23:00:08FORECAST2023109-17532.0124.5228.26593.192718737480.41071.05075.486.5307TT0.00999999999999827.0117346.2774401316732.2705360833250.42236686483699162114128WETL
2023-01-10 19:00:08FORECAST2023109-17532.0124.3828.19592.9757609046430.37251.05255.766.8125TT0.00999999999999832.0117346.138739545532.1825126878170.42236686483699162114128WETL
2023-01-10 15:00:07FORECAST2023109-17531.8727.9829.925101.954151794670.29740.99745.966.9574TT-0.1331.8717351.8152112027935.8690214466430.41609232484776162114128WETL
2023-01-10 11:00:05FORECAST2023109-17532.6126.429.505104.737398744440.64871.14875.776.9187TT0.6131.6117353.5487598018237.0297774309650.44946205655794162114128WETL
2023-01-10 07:00:26FORECAST2023109-17532.5828.0130.295103.135146562330.46550.96555.476.4355TT0.5828.5817352.5522922430936.3605323313770.44810059584466162113126WETL
2023-01-10 03:00:21FORECAST2023109-17529.8729.3429.605103.805963918010.27060.88065.346.2206TF-2.1319.8717352.9699783906936.6403888409660.32949480586274162113126WETL