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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 16, 2023

[ Sunday, January 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 17, 2023 ]

DAY 108 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/17/2023 07:00:19 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.232
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 13

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 90 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 30.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -176

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-17 07:00:19OBSERVATION2023108-17627.6600223.4800625.5700489.9522479166670.0199999999999821.045.936.97TT-4.3399812.6600216343.23193729614 30.874484316580.2315660878464816 1114126WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:21OBSERVATION2023108-17627.6600223.4800625.5700489.9522479166670.0199999999999821.045.936.97TT-4.3399812.6600216343.23193729614 30.874484316580.2315660878464816 1114126WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2023108-17625.19619.65222.42486.0531699066710.011811031.031811035.936.96181103TT-6.80410.19616340.6972612975129.3180793131720.14651851118425161114126WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:18FORECAST2023108-17625.10619.47222.28986.6064666279310.031496081.051496085.936.98149608TT-6.89410.10616341.0584733764229.5378692926480.14386959788032161114126WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:20FORECAST2023108-17625.80820.13822.97386.6113809735240.035433091.055433095.936.98543309TT-6.19210.80816341.061679364829.5398230469340.16539280958861161114126WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2023108-17626.65420.46223.55883.1261652349570.031496081.241496085.937.17149608TT-5.3468.65416338.777938056528.1613108568430.19395307088948161114126WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:01FORECAST2023108-17626.36621.0223.69383.2067711357560.051181131.261181135.937.19118113TT-5.6348.36616338.8309850146628.1930322238180.18391050963431161114126WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2023108-17626.49221.81224.15283.2285983201480.051181131.261181135.937.19118113TT-5.5088.49216338.8453476743128.2016233342360.18826373467654161114126WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2023108-17626.3322.08224.20687.3345786001130.220472561.430472565.937.36047256TT-5.678.3316341.533038261829.8276439746110.18267831091084161114126WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:16FORECAST2023108-17626.36622.17224.26986.8730009486390.228346581.398346585.937.32834658TT-5.6348.36616341.2322955190829.6438735323350.18391050963431161114126WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:15FORECAST2023108-17625.77222.38824.0887.3528947019890.338582861.508582865.937.43858286TT-6.2289.77216341.5449649185829.8349413565270.16424093223105161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2023108-17626.02421.90223.96389.8497192739970.374015951.514015955.937.44401595TT-5.9769.02416343.1656073017630.8333334805540.17241322338251161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:05FORECAST2023108-17625.95222.56824.2689.9093401459430.429134091.559134095.937.48913409TT-6.0486.95216343.2041805969630.8572614128020.17005230773627161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:06FORECAST2023108-17625.95222.87424.41389.8055713001550.421260071.521260075.937.45126007TT-6.0486.95216343.1370408415830.8156179870220.17005230773627161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:08FORECAST2023108-17625.62822.15423.89191.020903330180.448819141.518819145.937.44881914TT-6.3727.62816343.9222670677831.3041154238730.1596854497198161115127.5WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:22FORECAST2023108-17625.73622.04623.89190.1468331251020.405512031.395512035.937.32551203TT-6.2647.73616343.3577749768530.9526160430440.16309425663377161114126WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:14FORECAST2023108-17625.721.61423.65789.4221215880710.263779671.213779675.937.14377967TT-6.39.716342.8887904582730.6618431115460.16195278384164161114126WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:07FORECAST2023108-17625.98820.89423.44194.5143679079530.224409571.324409576.397.71440957TT-6.0126.98816346.1659438476632.7176553740210.17123017022084161114126WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:08FORECAST2023108-17626.36621.03823.70294.2808075913890.188976481.248976486.397.63897648TT-5.6346.36616346.0165600235232.6227207190120.18391050963431161114126WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:05FORECAST2023108-17626.8720.87623.87393.6606365103740.086614221.136614226.397.52661422TT-5.136.8716345.6194718559732.370939724410.20169946586909161114126WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:06FORECAST2023108-17627.21221.00224.10794.7906390325610.062992161.152992166.397.54299216TT-4.7886.21216346.3425308833432.8300298265860.21433604539828161114126WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:20FORECAST2023108-17626.79820.71423.75694.4451661776560.090551231.160551236.427.58055123TT-5.2025.79816346.1216920607132.6895207243650.1990970219139161114126WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:12FORECAST2023108-17626.65420.44423.54993.8885861123670.015748041.025748046.357.37574804TT-5.3464.65416345.7654979827132.4634337320350.19395307088948161114126WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2023108-17626.9621.05624.00896.0290435992140.031496081.021496084.986.00149608TF-5.045.9616347.1325736663933.3348090513180.20498095534235161114126WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:07FORECAST2023108-17626.70820.5723.63996.2576202975010.090551231.030551235.026.05055123TF-5.2926.70816347.2781231698833.4281657177150.19587250948169161114126WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2023108-17626.54621.18223.86494.1806776229440.011811030.851811034.95.75181103TF-5.4546.54616345.9524903309632.5820399647150.19014866114779161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:53:00FORECAST2023108-17626.54621.223.87394.1742691869590.011811030.851811034.815.66181103TF-5.4546.54616345.9483892402932.579436733110.19014866114779161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:40FORECAST2023108-17626.54621.223.87395.5126478738820.011811030.851811034.815.66181103TF-5.4546.54616346.8034399836733.1241148446110.19014866114779161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:25FORECAST2023108-17626.54621.223.87395.5609765413280.011811030.851811034.815.66181103TF-5.4546.54616346.8342614037533.1438207177320.19014866114779161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:49:22FORECAST2023108-17626.54621.223.87395.5609765413280.011811030.851811034.815.66181103TF-5.4546.54616346.8342614037533.1438207177320.19014866114779161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:48:25FORECAST2023108-17626.54621.223.87395.5609765413280.011811030.851811034.815.66181103TF-5.4546.54616346.8342614037533.1438207177320.19014866114779161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 11:00:10FORECAST2023108-17631.6825.4828.5891.6955613394940.1921.1324.835.962TF-0.3221.6816344.3571185775231.5760192892170.41469703912002162114128WETL
2023-01-12 07:00:25FORECAST2023108-17631.6825.4828.5891.4828374374170.1921.0925.176.262TT-0.3219.6816344.2200875977131.4902303163950.41469703912002162114128WETL
2023-01-12 03:00:13FORECAST2023108-17632.1325.9629.04591.3376914218630.11951.00955.416.4195TT0.1323.1316344.1265459593231.4317242649040.43743611310927162114128WETL
2023-01-11 23:00:08FORECAST2023108-17632.0525.3528.793.6292975005610.17691.12695.796.9169TT0.04999999999999722.0516345.5993892529432.3582280323750.43337621934508162114128WETL
2023-01-11 19:00:06FORECAST2023108-17632.2526.0429.14593.3011127915340.21051.02055.656.6705TT0.2534.2516345.3889865159932.2251767878820.44353819212937162114128WETL
2023-01-11 15:00:08FORECAST2023108-17632.2426.0929.16593.5076623332640.1851.0155.786.795TT0.2423.2416345.5214280978132.3089010274770.44302915334366162114128WETL
2023-01-11 11:00:10FORECAST2023108-17630.8225.2628.0493.4561789955160.12861.22865.877.0986TT-1.1823.8216345.4884229800632.2880278989030.37208545452335162114128WETL
2023-01-11 07:00:25FORECAST2023108-17630.8225.2628.0494.3280165267190.12861.34865.887.2286TT-1.1822.8216346.0467617312632.6419046596040.37208545452335162114128WETL
2023-01-11 03:00:29FORECAST2023108-17633.9624.7229.3494.2136653824950.04641.34646.187.5264TT1.9622.9616345.9735998536132.5954409677850.531252098204291631141210WETL
2023-01-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023108-17635.7126.4531.0891.5751669799720.29021.22025.797.0102TT3.7126.7116344.2795728839631.5274593746420.619434728057471631141210WETL
2023-01-10 19:00:07FORECAST2023108-17635.7526.6431.19591.3372107350150.29021.14026.197.3302TT3.7531.7516344.126236115831.4315305475560.621397289900671631141210WETL
2023-01-10 15:00:06FORECAST2023108-17635.2927.6131.4599.6366220937570.33841.21846.337.5484TT3.2932.2916349.4199223513234.8150207553490.59865118975781631141210WETL
2023-01-10 11:00:05FORECAST2023108-17632.8527.2230.03599.7891475766240.18530.85536.37.1553TT0.8530.8516349.5161685478434.8779205236370.47422099042987162113126WETL
2023-01-10 07:00:26FORECAST2023108-17632.9527.1530.0599.943262236190.18530.80536.056.8553TT0.9527.9516349.6133796775434.9415016863930.47935468970043162113126WETL
2023-01-10 03:00:21FORECAST2023108-17631.5625.3728.465101.443622776340.30381.03385.816.8438TT-0.4421.5616350.557778419935.561851035340.40867798250533162114128WETL
2023-01-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023108-17630.9325.5228.225102.202397807750.41981.51985.677.1898TT-1.0730.9316351.0340191847535.8765184727740.377461116493111621151210WETL
2023-01-09 19:00:06FORECAST2023108-17631.7625.7528.755100.741057410060.38751.25755.516.7675TT-0.2434.7616350.115998195835.2710558744250.41872099050252162114128WETL
2023-01-09 15:00:11FORECAST2023108-17631.7726.629.18599.9411662949040.33461.29465.456.7446TT-0.2326.7716349.6120578728134.940636814570.4192245919777162114128WETL
2023-01-09 11:00:11FORECAST2023108-17632.3926.5129.45102.304302653020.53461.42465.597.0146TT0.3929.3916351.0979092883135.9188267726740.45067414119405162114128WETL
2023-01-09 07:00:24FORECAST2023108-17632.4331.2231.825103.81111165620.51631.47635.857.3263TT0.4323.4316352.0406883659236.5457352074790.45271601900542162114128WETL
2023-01-09 03:00:25FORECAST2023108-17632.3531.732.025102.754913839970.30521.26525.897.1552TT0.3524.3516351.3802256234936.1060448090110.44863356792898162114128WETL