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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 15, 2023

[ Saturday, January 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, January 16, 2023 ]

DAY 107 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/16/2023 07:00:16 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.410
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 17

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.70 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 86 in
SWE DAY: 15
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.99 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -177

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-16 07:00:16OBSERVATION2023107-17731.0299826.1528.5899986.4708363636360.700000000000051.535.887.41TT-0.9700217.0299815339.99178452597 29.3993739647260.4096426044784716 21151210WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:18OBSERVATION2023107-17731.0299826.1528.5899986.4708363636360.700000000000051.535.887.41TT-0.9700217.0299815339.99178452597 29.3993739647260.4096426044784716 21151210WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:01FORECAST2023107-17728.32824.58426.45686.4162120346630.885827251.715827255.887.59582725TT-3.67214.32815339.955998362929.3777096369840.295730408265351621151210WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:15FORECAST2023107-17728.424.87226.63685.9125159373390.846457151.676457155.887.55645715TT-3.614.415339.6257766842429.1781049521160.29857415839861621151210WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:14FORECAST2023107-17729.96624.7127.33885.9165611312640.846457151.676457155.887.55645715TT-2.03415.96615339.6284303846829.179706801060.363226955234411621151210WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:01FORECAST2023107-17729.53424.45826.99688.1661188138080.771653961.651653965.887.53165396TT-2.46614.53415341.0999541842430.0734590879920.344898373742781621151210WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2023107-17728.38224.49426.43888.0404390095870.759842931.639842935.887.51984293TT-3.61813.38215341.0179636662730.0233712313340.297862056664181621151210WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2023107-17728.424.60226.50187.9536981116930.728346851.608346855.887.48834685TT-3.613.415340.9613606977129.9888125865580.29857415839861621151210WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:06FORECAST2023107-17729.33624.8927.11388.9962110988340.696850771.576850775.887.45685077TT-2.66414.33615341.6408298349930.4047394119760.336614781909211621151210WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:21FORECAST2023107-17729.44424.8927.16788.3677427164840.724409841.504409845.887.38440984TT-2.55614.44415341.23143416430.1538515809810.341123596893941621151210WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:13FORECAST2023107-17729.51624.99827.25788.2249590150640.720472831.460472835.887.34047283TT-2.48415.51615341.1383311389730.0969152832030.34414216829908162114128WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:05FORECAST2023107-17729.7524.8927.3293.3885091298660.86614222.06614225.887.9461422TT-2.2512.7515344.4838804760732.1708360169310.354020403596621621151210WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:07FORECAST2023107-17729.26425.12427.19493.3371955041160.874016222.034016225.887.91401622TT-2.73612.26415344.4508489257232.1500762277380.333621844253421621151210WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:04FORECAST2023107-17729.44423.48626.46593.256010134490.744094892.024094895.887.90409489TT-2.55612.44415344.398579574632.1172374271130.341123596893941621151210WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:05FORECAST2023107-17728.72424.5326.62794.479874305350.877953232.057953235.887.93795323TT-3.27610.72415345.1853943054832.6130726660250.311521964232251621151210WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:19FORECAST2023107-17728.56224.24226.40293.9862285601810.870079212.070079215.887.95007921TT-3.43810.56215344.8683267836532.4128733842550.305017577154031621151210WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:11FORECAST2023107-17728.424.18826.29493.8040914380310.775590971.935590975.887.81559097TT-3.610.415344.7512400915732.3390768489240.29857415839861621151210WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2023107-17728.45424.42226.43895.8410796838870.759842931.769842934.666.42984293TT-3.54611.45415346.0576366248833.1665375269830.3007150902311621151210WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:07FORECAST2023107-17728.7625.03426.89795.7740163617120.681102731.761102734.666.42110273TT-3.2411.7615346.0147339316433.1392207889620.312975497296691621151210WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2023107-17729.08424.18826.63694.1278420380580.566929441.536929444.666.19692944TT-2.91612.08415344.9593254625932.4702768966980.326185986159771621151210WETL
2023-01-12 13:53:00FORECAST2023107-17729.17424.1726.67294.1214336020740.566929441.446929444.666.10692944TT-2.82612.17415344.9552082056232.4676787248150.32989551883952162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:40FORECAST2023107-17729.17424.1726.67295.4419573972890.566929441.446929444.666.10692944TT-2.82612.17415345.8021967822333.0040385331780.32989551883952162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:25FORECAST2023107-17729.17424.1726.67295.4896116984880.566929441.446929444.666.10692944TT-2.82612.17415345.8327093389433.0234311274110.32989551883952162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:49:21FORECAST2023107-17729.17424.1726.67295.4896116984880.566929441.446929444.666.10692944TT-2.82612.17415345.8327093389433.0234311274110.32989551883952162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:48:25FORECAST2023107-17729.17424.1726.67295.4896116984880.566929441.446929444.666.10692944TT-2.82612.17415345.8327093389433.0234311274110.32989551883952162114128WETL
2023-01-12 11:00:09FORECAST2023107-17732.5424.4428.4991.52518065950.54841.56844.666.2284TT0.5421.5415343.2816561692531.4189155979830.477592081564591621151210WETL
2023-01-12 07:00:23FORECAST2023107-17733.3426.1229.7391.2682177236710.59881.48885.046.5288TT1.3420.3415343.1154161319431.3155325038780.513987192856391631141210WETL
2023-01-12 03:00:13FORECAST2023107-17734.6226.9230.7791.1860016740120.4851.4655.296.755TT2.6222.6215343.0622042257731.2824707288210.571852767441361631141210WETL
2023-01-11 23:00:07FORECAST2023107-17733.0427.0430.0493.0504077703040.62751.49755.77.1975TT1.0422.0415344.2661589525432.034106472050.500336394606781631141210WETL
2023-01-11 19:00:05FORECAST2023107-17733.427.1230.2692.8587843449270.53491.27495.656.9249TT1.434.415344.1426793538131.9566708460010.516715898506581631141210WETL
2023-01-11 15:00:07FORECAST2023107-17732.127.1129.60593.0549359874430.56351.34355.737.0735TT0.123.115344.2690761488932.0359368434910.4576348515202162114128WETL
2023-01-11 11:00:10FORECAST2023107-17732.9426.2129.57592.9081138574890.63171.60175.837.4317TT0.9424.9415344.1744723833331.9766010670310.495785251364531621151210WETL
2023-01-11 07:00:24FORECAST2023107-17732.2525.4528.8593.7693698124110.69981.66985.897.5598TT0.2524.2515344.7289131764232.325012944670.464429006537361621151210WETL
2023-01-11 03:00:29FORECAST2023107-17732.2625.4928.87594.0270981108960.74521.77526.167.9352TT0.2621.2615344.8945922989732.4294376680120.464882341390651621151210WETL
2023-01-10 23:00:07FORECAST2023107-17734.0227.983191.2589257662050.35371.55375.637.1837TT2.0223.0215343.1094027442931.3117955147280.544843514874651631151212.5WETL
2023-01-10 19:00:07FORECAST2023107-17734.0728.4831.27591.0167196851450.38551.55555.947.4955TT2.0728.0715342.9526064650131.2144212479160.547103996069111631151212.5WETL
2023-01-10 15:00:06FORECAST2023107-17733.6127.8730.7497.6651582611210.35561.60566.067.6656TT1.6128.6115347.2217636094633.9114684946230.526259367687031631151212.5WETL
2023-01-10 11:00:05FORECAST2023107-17732.9227.2330.07598.5621926361980.31371.31376.127.4337TT0.9229.9215347.7922755838334.2791692634750.49487506958549162114128WETL
2023-01-10 07:00:25FORECAST2023107-17732.9227.2430.0898.6676136693760.31371.11376.027.1337TT0.9226.9215347.8592378195834.3224408885060.49487506958549162114128WETL
2023-01-10 03:00:20FORECAST2023107-17733.3728.1730.7799.103727551820.31011.20015.87.0001TT1.3722.3715348.13606193734.5015814331680.515351635545281631141210WETL
2023-01-09 23:00:07FORECAST2023107-17734.4728.8531.6698.669773465840.74931.52935.77.2293TT2.4732.4715347.8606095101934.3233275380590.565126870309911631151212.5WETL
2023-01-09 19:00:06FORECAST2023107-17735.6328.6232.12597.3663449988460.69471.29475.556.8447TT3.6334.6315347.0314301951733.7891819578260.616505834822611631141210WETL
2023-01-09 15:00:11FORECAST2023107-17735.6328.6232.12596.9310922521140.69471.38475.496.8747TT3.6326.6315346.7539310954333.6112372837940.616505834822611631141210WETL
2023-01-09 11:00:10FORECAST2023107-17735.1129.932.50598.4977509216140.55361.20365.746.9436TT3.1129.1115347.7513341119234.2527242900150.593669096430691631141210WETL
2023-01-09 07:00:24FORECAST2023107-17734.3929.1831.785100.405696029950.58791.35795.917.2679TT2.3923.3915348.960667027835.0376386600030.561531875975181631141210WETL
2023-01-09 03:00:24FORECAST2023107-17734.3929.1831.785100.666933228940.58791.35795.957.3079TT2.3924.3915349.1257940610635.1454229992460.561531875975181631141210WETL
2023-01-08 23:00:06FORECAST2023107-17733.9528.8831.41593.8847726485850.34611.06615.876.9361TT1.9529.9515344.803112621232.3717618369650.541676416736211631141210WETL
2023-01-08 19:00:10FORECAST2023107-17735.9528.8932.4295.1985032434850.23441.16446.197.3544TT3.9524.9515345.6462579592832.9050064094350.630366134836481631141210WETL
2023-01-08 15:00:10FORECAST2023107-17735.430.1932.79591.579566350150.17461.32466.127.4446TT3.432.415343.3168266299631.4408061034820.606449686092851631141210WETL
2023-01-08 11:00:08FORECAST2023107-17734.3129.6831.99596.6406243358380.11210.97216.157.1221TT2.3120.3115346.5685700419133.4926029840290.55793179778248163113127.5WETL
2023-01-08 07:00:27FORECAST2023107-17734.2430.3732.30596.2032110105480.10490.96496.267.2249TT2.2423.2415346.289178144333.3141308756850.55477778932654163113127.5WETL
2023-01-08 03:00:15FORECAST2023107-17733.8533.4933.6795.80752522960.0780.8786.227.098TT1.8524.8515346.0361716101833.1528692418970.53714744699103163113127.5WETL