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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 10, 2023

[ Monday, January 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 11, 2023 ]

DAY 102 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/11/2023 07:00:18 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.503
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 30

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.73 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 92 in
SWE DAY: 10
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -182

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-11 07:00:18OBSERVATION2023102-18232.9799227.1099430.0449392.1192383333330.0500000000000681.06000000000018.739.7900000000001TT0.9799229.9799210338.78892606814 31.2089778251650.5034237360066716 31141210WETL
2023-01-11 03:00:21OBSERVATION2023102-18232.9799227.1099430.0449392.1192383333330.0500000000000681.06000000000018.739.7900000000001TT0.9799229.9799210338.78892606814 31.2089778251650.5034237360066716 31141210WETL
2023-01-10 11:00:01FORECAST2023102-18234.1525.3829.76590.9893913785350.00161.01168.739.7416TT2.1531.1510338.0442581721530.7584413100930.554778427049031631141210WETL
2023-01-10 07:00:19FORECAST2023102-18231.8825.6828.7891.2598537755090.00471.01478.739.7447TT-0.1228.8810338.222711134130.8661551616540.45508089392181162114128WETL
2023-01-10 03:00:16FORECAST2023102-18229.826.5628.1891.263926475480.00541.01548.739.7454TT-2.226.810338.2253973929330.8677777998080.36600996135286162114128WETL
2023-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2023102-18235.7225.2530.48588.9542787227230.03660.90668.739.6366TT3.7233.7210336.6975377460729.9506866179180.62211916985429163113127.5WETL
2023-01-09 19:00:01FORECAST2023102-18232.9626.8829.9289.1249908886250.04460.91468.739.6446TT0.9630.9610336.810772907130.0182570665360.50254652484292163113127.5WETL
2023-01-09 15:00:03FORECAST2023102-18232.312729.65589.1047409642520.0360.9068.739.636TT0.3130.3110336.797343487530.0102400489020.47394043673605162113126WETL
2023-01-09 11:00:06FORECAST2023102-18232.2427.0829.6690.3071955844150.0420.9128.739.642TT0.2430.2410337.5935957009130.4871308750080.47086516679528162113126WETL
2023-01-09 07:00:19FORECAST2023102-18232.9326.7129.8290.7232262507850.04741.05748.739.7874TT0.9329.9310337.8685208511430.6525222601960.501225401807811631141210WETL
2023-01-09 03:00:20FORECAST2023102-18233.1126.7229.91590.8917036558450.01231.05238.739.7823TT1.1130.1110337.9797729944930.7195573686850.509151431402811631141210WETL
2023-01-08 23:00:05FORECAST2023102-18232.2125.792987.3837027971030.01271.10278.739.8327TT0.2131.2110335.6534512837729.3306414298030.46954771487548162114128WETL
2023-01-08 19:00:06FORECAST2023102-18231.6626.2228.9488.0269900646580.05621.26628.739.9962TT-0.3429.6610336.0815990615629.5842515815060.4454681435938162114128WETL
2023-01-08 15:00:06FORECAST2023102-18231.1226.2628.6987.429210337990.04071.11078.739.8407TT-0.8830.1210335.6837623885929.348566268920.42202001687396162114128WETL
2023-01-08 11:00:06FORECAST2023102-18231.226.428.890.0018717044620.03881.11888.739.8488TT-0.830.210337.3916438881330.3658794473770.42547849650428162114128WETL
2023-01-08 07:00:24FORECAST2023102-18232.0826.629.3489.7007202391450.02741.09748.739.8274TT0.07999999999999829.0810337.1922983738530.2463920232270.46384279229502162114128WETL
2023-01-08 03:00:13FORECAST2023102-18235.5326.7931.1689.896995680310.04661.18668.739.9166TT3.5333.5310337.322239099530.32425587120.614121565556011631141210WETL
2023-01-07 23:00:07FORECAST2023102-18231.7426.4329.08584.7518000990470.07361.08368.429.5036TT-0.2635.7410333.8944515552728.2981558123930.44896028440495162114128WETL
2023-01-07 19:00:05FORECAST2023102-18232.9826.6229.884.2321421229160.12081.00088.429.4208TT0.9837.9810333.5457523003328.0952732122560.503427258912531631141210WETL
2023-01-07 15:00:06FORECAST2023102-18233.5526.0729.8183.9054233347770.08430.88438.429.3043TT1.5536.5510333.3262827191927.9678828601610.52850463387689163113127.5WETL
2023-01-07 11:00:08FORECAST2023102-18233.2427.6730.45584.45350624110.07440.83448.429.2544TT1.2438.2410333.6943476255728.1816576698160.51487371976626163113127.5WETL
2023-01-07 07:00:16FORECAST2023102-18233.8126.9530.3885.2208302465070.08050.93058.469.3905TT1.8143.8110334.2087837461228.4815500265190.53991198417262163113127.5WETL
2023-01-07 03:00:28FORECAST2023102-18233.3226.7130.01585.6394493292140.09450.90458.69.5045TT1.3240.3210334.4890156201628.6454551043820.51839368131426163113127.5WETL
2023-01-06 23:00:06FORECAST2023102-18233.5827.8330.70584.8627082956980.05270.77278.649.4127TT1.5844.5810333.9688132440628.3414979781910.52982224012499163113127.5WETL
2023-01-06 19:00:08FORECAST2023102-18232.9628.3830.6785.0890632603910.0540.8148.649.454TT0.9639.9610334.1205146516828.4300016077910.50254652484292163113127.5WETL
2023-01-06 15:00:09FORECAST2023102-18238.3726.1132.2483.6169080340550.0590.9898.569.549TT6.3750.3710333.1323244021127.8554949327020.72694190590664164113129WETL
2023-01-06 11:00:08FORECAST2023102-18239.3629.9534.65584.0551337806430.08020.94028.539.4702TT7.3651.3610333.426871593728.026240297870.76204339277883164113129WETL
2023-01-06 07:00:26FORECAST2023102-18239.8829.3134.59582.7319067380720.11790.79798.589.3779TT7.8849.8810332.5364828263527.5113772841960.7794410249776164113129WETL
2023-01-06 03:00:26FORECAST2023102-18239.5429.5734.55583.0643788985850.12520.90528.619.5152TT7.5447.5410332.7604822255827.6405427780610.76814917706525164113129WETL
2023-01-05 23:00:08FORECAST2023102-18240.430.2535.32584.3307949633370.0230.8838.689.563TT8.452.410333.6119854171228.1337639395230.79608748602918164113129WETL
2023-01-05 19:00:07FORECAST2023102-18241.0228.7334.87583.1741264558630.02360.94368.759.6936TT9.0264.0210332.8343818976227.6832089688110.81492630877883164113129WETL
2023-01-05 15:00:06FORECAST2023102-18241.0228.7434.8883.3782887690930.02360.91368.759.6636TT9.0261.0210332.9718019441927.7626190544680.81492630877883164113129WETL
2023-01-05 11:00:07FORECAST2023102-18241.3729.5935.4884.7094517612150.27741.11748.659.7674TT9.3759.3710333.8660523296828.2816102545290.825068215900391641141212WETL
2023-01-05 07:00:26FORECAST2023102-18241.3729.5935.4885.5892766669380.27741.05748.799.8474TT9.3759.3710334.4554447639928.6257995946680.825068215900391641141212WETL
2023-01-05 03:00:21FORECAST2023102-18234.9329.3132.1286.1048869240520.34771.13778.849.9777TT2.9353.9310334.8002391104828.8279367307540.588561145980081631141210WETL
2023-01-04 23:00:10FORECAST2023102-18233.3928.7931.0987.1242395006840.21951.04958.899.9395TT1.3957.3910335.4805642013829.2284890233060.521472481203741631141210WETL
2023-01-04 19:00:04FORECAST2023102-18233.428.7931.09589.042476627720.21951.20958.9110.1195TT1.449.410336.7560464674629.9855923968220.521912209478211631141210WETL
2023-01-04 15:00:05FORECAST2023102-18239.9128.134.00588.63394948260.22591.19598.8210.0159TT7.9157.9110336.48492746729.8239880627660.780422033218621641141212WETL
2023-01-04 11:00:07FORECAST2023102-1823728.6732.83586.6954849488010.41291.42298.7810.2029TT56510335.1946241699629.0598604946460.674491309499131631141210WETL
2023-01-04 07:00:29FORECAST2023102-18240.5928.6734.6387.0145604399480.41291.43298.7310.1629TT8.5972.5910335.4074479475429.1853316514390.801978394015081641141212WETL
2023-01-04 03:00:21FORECAST2023102-18235.831.1333.46588.4616313175670.31251.01258.859.8625TT3.848.810336.3704841469329.7558817547170.625471212148091631141210WETL
2023-01-03 23:00:08FORECAST2023102-18239.6330.5935.1188.5253378340030.33081.02088.649.6608TT7.6365.6310336.4128000045629.7810567720860.771169090734821641141212WETL
2023-01-03 19:00:10FORECAST2023102-18239.2231.7535.48589.342894054380.18410.79418.659.4441TT7.2267.2210336.9552390338830.1045562220720.75723425509499164113129WETL
2023-01-03 15:00:07FORECAST2023102-18239.3231.8835.689.3333220007610.08030.66038.669.3203TT7.3267.3210336.9488946025530.100764099330.76067469800363164113129WETL
2023-01-03 11:00:11FORECAST2023102-18236.5331.0133.7788.8979421092230.19470.98478.749.7247TT4.5361.5310336.6601583058429.9283952635540.65559330536899163113127.5WETL
2023-01-03 07:00:19FORECAST2023102-18236.4831.8234.1588.0427762738070.14310.93318.79.6331TT4.4868.4810336.0920969759829.5904813014510.65355879242695163113127.5WETL
2023-01-03 03:00:26FORECAST2023102-18240.3637.4638.9187.9995320233690.05211.03218.789.8121TT8.3671.3610336.0633383128129.5734165017380.794834144417931641141212WETL