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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 8, 2023

[ Wednesday, June 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, June 9, 2023 ]

DAY 251 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/09/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.36°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.78°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.813
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 399

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 51 in
SWE DAY: 158
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 433.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -34

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-09 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023251-3461.3599848.7799655.0699750.607322857143000.30.3FF29.35998399.35998158433.82935587153 21.9549422774970.8129306324703916 4131124DRYL
2023-06-09 00:00:01FORECAST2023251-3361.03446.16653.648.36543840.015748040.015748040.30.31574804FF29.034399.034159433.518248068620.9673001222380.8046841289555164131124DRYL
2023-06-08 12:00:01FORECAST2023251-3360.13444.83452.48451.4720056000.30.3FF28.134398.134159434.8102279800422.3805544895260.78079861582399164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 08:00:01FORECAST2023251-3359.86444.94252.40351.46984080.019685050.019685050.30.31968505FF27.864397.864159434.8093312134622.3795670559110.7733189100571164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 04:00:08FORECAST2023251-3360.4446.25653.34851.82555730.003937010.003937010.30.30393701FF28.44398.44159434.9566203304922.5418692499520.78910186956771164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2023251-3461.14247.64254.39249.08537280.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF29.142394.142158433.1938717419721.263482689130.80744036229234164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 20:00:02FORECAST2023251-3462.52846.11254.3255.1248504000.30.3FF30.528395.528158435.7012277981224.0179650014680.84067683089989164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2023251-3461.89846.23854.06855.164604000.30.3FF29.898394.898158435.7176048534624.036189127570.82606280251711164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2023251-3461.82647.67854.75252.021708000.30.3FF29.826394.826158434.417728430122.5991522184140.82434010793806164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2023251-3462.94248.23655.58951.8049328000.30.3FF30.942395.942158434.3276888326922.5003167331570.84983043229533165121124DRYL
2023-06-07 04:00:12FORECAST2023251-3462.5147.80455.15751.624361286957000.30.3FF30.51395.51158434.2526489161322.4180156374640.84027075115695164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-07 00:00:04FORECAST2023251-3462.29447.42654.8648.2370864000.30.3FF30.294389.294158432.8386055024220.8788732108760.83534516350562164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2023251-3462.25847.01254.63553.82166080.03937010.03937010.30.3393701FF30.258390.258158435.1634438165623.4212192656550.83451478820789164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2023251-3463.28447.73255.50853.62368000.30.3FF31.284391.284158435.0815877042523.3306758329440.85712316393002165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 12:00:04FORECAST2023251-3464.41848.50656.46250.5555680.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF32.418393.418158433.8077861638321.9313990323350.87957630671852165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 08:00:05FORECAST2023251-3463.30248.95656.12950.6104752000.30.3FF31.302392.302158433.8306695718521.9563763433660.85750026451458165121124DRYL
2023-06-06 04:00:15FORECAST2023251-3462.61848.75855.68851.2192735000.30.3FF30.618389.618158434.0841817411622.2334764266240.8426971067823164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-06 00:00:06FORECAST2023251-3464.20250.10857.15549.6659536000.30.3FF32.202398.202158433.4365807873821.5270411099290.87550264154576165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 20:00:04FORECAST2023251-3464.63448.66856.65154.12624880.015748040.015748040.30.31574804FF32.634399.634158435.2892968364923.5605767805490.88355545631149165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2023251-3463.17649.156.13854.28477120.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF31.176395.176158435.3547583515623.6331334479460.85484644401882165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2023251-3464.11248.86656.48951.9068368000.30.3FF32.112396.112158434.3700217827122.5467738314880.87377724885472165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 08:00:04FORECAST2023251-3464.79648.84856.82251.750184000.30.3FF32.796396.796158434.3049405661322.4753605864060.8864781684076165121124DRYL
2023-06-05 04:00:14FORECAST2023251-3466.249.96458.08251.191348685714000.30.3FF34.2400.2158434.0725620322722.2207598778950.90964381844678165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:05FORECAST2023251-3465.91249.74857.8351.012932000.30.3FF33.912398.912158433.9983021538322.1395258758890.90520254160683165121124DRYL
2023-06-04 20:00:06FORECAST2023251-3465.82250.01857.9254.5603704000.30.3FF33.822400.822158435.4685037747123.7593228634820.90378229111117165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-04 16:00:07FORECAST2023251-3465.350.32457.81254.3064984000.30.3FF33.3401.3158435.3637285025923.6430796253440.89523654101213165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:05FORECAST2023251-3464.5849.51457.04752.9815424000.30.3FF32.58398.58158434.8158093827823.0372122410040.88256949641413165121124DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:05FORECAST2023251-3466.81249.67658.24452.5997504000.30.3FF34.812403.812158434.6575815064722.8628802967080.91856698778794165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:15FORECAST2023251-3467.15450.68458.91952.001434872727000.30.3FF35.154402.154158434.4093098992322.5899074368310.92325596100417165131124.5DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023251-3463.4146.83255.12151.5811136000.30.3FF31.41390.41158434.2346714104422.398307915080.85974876481229165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:04FORECAST2023251-3464.20247.91256.05755.031136000.30.3FF32.202390.202158435.6626142866623.9750085769250.87550264154576165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:06FORECAST2023251-3463.64447.78655.71555.2420072000.30.3FF31.644389.644158435.7494874476124.0716763229770.86453771291472165121124DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2023251-3462.00645.01453.5155.043436000.30.3FF30.006381.006158435.6676828278923.9806462170050.82862667556228164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023251-3459.8144.25852.03455.6681776000.30.3FF27.81372.81158435.924916004124.2671456443810.77180590049414164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:15FORECAST2023251-3461.71846.3154.01454.712377547826000.30.3FF29.718383.718158435.5312061703823.8289477858540.8217359214919164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:07FORECAST2023251-3462.56447.8455.20255.2468096000.30.3FF30.564388.564158435.7514653630624.0738782398340.84148696582819164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2023251-3460.85446.52653.6958.3951768000.30.3FF28.854380.854158437.0429724296425.5212016442260.80003759096682164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:06FORECAST2023251-3461.30447.31854.31157.5771776000.30.3FF29.304385.304158436.7084094497825.1444376503030.8115299649735164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2023251-3463.78849.47856.63355.0660096000.30.3FF31.788397.788158435.6769844665123.9909930091320.86742858316432165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:06FORECAST2023251-3464.02250.07257.04754.9369088000.30.3FF32.022396.022158435.6237802161723.9318238848470.87203531022328165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:10FORECAST2023251-3463.10450.28856.69654.5403222909090.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF31.104393.104158435.4602321954523.7501414088140.85331517700232165121124DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:06FORECAST2023251-3464.29246.45455.37363.0986392000.30.3FF32.292396.292158438.9532646264827.6973536703290.87721152608825165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:05FORECAST2023251-3462.27646.0454.15866.553424000.30.3FF30.276376.276158440.3419447588929.3062641545230.8349303130364164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:05FORECAST2023251-3460.1745.69852.93466.7436312000.30.3FF28.17376.17158440.4180468123329.3950996902660.7817850971335164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:08FORECAST2023251-3466.41647.3956.90365.1826136000.30.3FF34.416384.416158439.7923937440228.6668176656360.91287232661558165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023251-3466.39846.86856.63364.7918672000.30.3FF34.398386.398158439.6353947024528.4847981099810.91260660864225165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:23FORECAST2023251-3465.08447.76856.42665.559609516667000.30.3FF33.084383.084158439.9437203213528.8425385135770.89154460263838165121124DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:08FORECAST2023251-3462.04245.93253.98757.140912000.30.3FF30.042406.042158436.5296916894324.9437046982130.82947591727788164131124DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:04FORECAST2023251-3462.22246.7654.49157.2022152000.30.3FF30.222406.222158436.5548167246324.9719025728790.83368171573151164131124DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:06FORECAST2023251-3462.83444.00653.4258.0139168000.30.3FF30.834398.834158436.8871229696425.3455332029520.84747694037924164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:06FORECAST2023251-3464.90446.95855.93158.5757808000.30.3FF32.904388.904158437.1167461205125.6044547047640.88839744370322165121124DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:06FORECAST2023251-3464.8546.86855.85958.7867504000.30.3FF32.85388.85158437.2028808023125.7017366278860.88744071868379165121124DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:14FORECAST2023251-3465.91246.88656.39957.698279454545000.30.3FF33.912394.912158436.7579841502325.2001842235040.90520254160683165121124DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:08FORECAST2023251-3463.73445.4154.57257.65820080.055118140.145118140.30.44511814FF31.734393.734158436.7415790930625.1817336650570.86634951292365165122128DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:08FORECAST2023251-3463.33846.454.86960.29321520.070866180.100866180.30.40086618FF31.338386.338158437.8166006443526.3973705207820.85825245032834165122128DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:07FORECAST2023251-3462.0648.21855.13959.78743920.031496080.031496080.30.33149608FF30.06389.06158437.6108139814326.1636299341770.82989952834771164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023251-3472.33848.41660.37757.06215280.031496080.031496080.30.33149608FF40.338410.338158436.4974065934224.9074817118380.97195365612363165131119DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:05FORECAST2023251-3472.33847.82260.0856.85374160.031496080.031496080.30.33149608FF40.338412.338158436.4119431800124.811651848710.97195365612363165131119DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:16FORECAST2023251-3476.96449.0162.98755.9691610909090.031496080.031496080.30.33149608FF44.964414.964158436.04869832124.4052798398090.99041704246669165131119DRYL
2023-05-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023251-3458.96450.01854.49154.646492000.30.3FF26.964418.964158435.5040315940123.798767578470.74737594338774164131124DRYL
2023-05-29 20:00:08FORECAST2023251-3461.93450.91856.42656.937264000.30.3FF29.934434.934158436.4461987362724.8500524392440.82692011715922164131124DRYL
2023-05-29 16:00:05FORECAST2023251-3446.3133.18839.74960.357057600.130.30.43FF14.31394.31158437.8425576150826.4268884697050.30556280743558162122125DRYL
2023-05-29 12:00:07FORECAST2023251-3447.76841.66644.71758.4986752000.30.3FF15.768396.768158437.0852539220525.5689083038950.35453187105275162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-29 08:00:06FORECAST2023251-3455.86850.2753.06957.10208400.090.30.39FF23.868411.868158436.5137760613424.9258463078120.6475914712733163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 04:00:15FORECAST2023251-3458.8257.5658.1956.88269441904800.20.30.5FF26.82420.82158436.4238186009424.8249627106710.74308480783987164132128DRYL