MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 4, 2023

[ Saturday, June 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, June 5, 2023 ]

DAY 247 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/05/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.07°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.567
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 392

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 64 in
SWE DAY: 154
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 436.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 27.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -38

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-05 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023247-3855.0700635.8100645.4400663.588174285714000.30.3FF23.07006392.07006154436.71935907757 27.770186718970.5674685585207216 3121123DRYL
2023-06-05 00:00:02FORECAST2023247-3754.87836.44645.66263.3353672000.30.3FF22.878391.878155437.2275437755727.691967034980.56056345826864163121123DRYL
2023-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2023247-3754.71635.54645.13165.3396968000.30.3FF22.716391.716155438.0434481520828.6216260874830.55472465176767163121123DRYL
2023-06-04 08:00:01FORECAST2023247-3755.435.16845.28465.3219848000.30.3FF23.4392.4155438.0362562870228.613397675030.57928173303822163121123DRYL
2023-06-04 04:00:13FORECAST2023247-3755.45436.5946.02264.820199672727000.30.3FF23.454392.454155437.8323745750928.3803819431410.58120866422711163121123DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023247-3855.92235.85245.88763.426112000.30.3FF23.922388.922154436.6529973101627.695201912530.59782245003514163121123DRYL
2023-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2023247-3856.26435.85246.05867.2267336000.30.3FF24.264387.264154438.2021186542729.4588970937260.6098543133682163121123DRYL
2023-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2023247-3856.13836.30246.2267.190424000.30.3FF24.138387.138154438.1873896169529.4419964998160.605433083755163121123DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:02FORECAST2023247-3854.5935.09644.84365.7117672000.30.3FF22.59385.59154437.5864150077328.7545766328710.55017507005487163121123DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023247-3854.03235.1544.59165.7896016000.30.3FF22.032385.032154437.6181057707228.7907208316030.52995571774788163121123DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:14FORECAST2023247-3855.16634.84445.00565.949362347826000.30.3FF23.166386.166154437.6831337343328.8649235801770.57091030762988163121123DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:04FORECAST2023247-3856.55236.19446.37366.9774672000.30.3FF24.552387.552154438.1009760565429.3428937541150.61990594736636163121123DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:01FORECAST2023247-3855.59835.9645.77969.4171576000.30.3FF23.598386.598154439.0881589706530.480251931560.58633751164989163121123DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2023247-3855.6736.21245.94169.3330256000.30.3FF23.67386.67154439.0542180034330.440957336620.58889648118084163121123DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:03FORECAST2023247-3857.52436.64447.08467.5478528000.30.3FF25.524390.524154438.3323219693429.6084071618670.65320142211352163121123DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:05FORECAST2023247-3856.62436.7746.69767.6997824000.30.3FF24.624387.624154438.3938874453629.6791707855410.62240655062706163121123DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2023247-3856.6636.51846.58967.293749490909000.30.3FF24.66386.66154438.229300172129.4900927453580.62365493894481163121123DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023247-3857.52438.0347.77775.4305208000.30.3FF25.524391.524154441.4954109893433.3022287817360.65320142211352163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023247-3855.437.32846.36477.9288576000.30.3FF23.4382.4154442.4847769268934.4823331713030.57928173303822163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:04FORECAST2023247-3855.56237.25646.40977.8870376000.30.3FF23.562383.562154442.468267409934.4625425805620.58505664355604163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:05FORECAST2023247-3858.11838.19248.15576.5486992000.30.3FF26.118387.118154441.9389968728533.829855336370.67299977501213163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023247-3858.35238.69648.52476.5638528000.30.3FF26.352387.352154441.944999718833.8370119041660.68067122995853163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:20FORECAST2023247-3856.85839.43448.14677.066800716667000.30.3FF24.858387.858154442.1441031115634.0746314825480.6304976609347163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:05FORECAST2023247-3859.7239.09249.40669.9364544000.30.3FF27.72396.72154439.297495902530.7229092902190.72390562652903164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:03FORECAST2023247-3859.9939.93849.96470.0818896000.30.3FF27.99397.99154439.3560737050930.790903852490.73208706051282164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:05FORECAST2023247-3860.67439.9250.29770.1718272000.30.3FF28.674395.674154439.3922875815330.8329596771840.75225276202079164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:05FORECAST2023247-3859.07240.85649.96469.9490496000.30.3FF27.072392.072154439.302569802230.7287972445010.70378434265584164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:05FORECAST2023247-3858.62240.15449.38870.1290232000.30.3FF26.622391.622154439.375053343830.8129433094490.68942765806139163121123DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:13FORECAST2023247-3859.57640.58650.08169.529698654545000.30.3FF27.576393.576154439.1335495270430.5328233677160.71949265977581164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:07FORECAST2023247-3856.42636.12246.27469.411392000.30.3FF24.426390.426154439.0858332139230.4775588908580.61551786969126163121123DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:07FORECAST2023247-3853.0636.06844.56471.9243904000.30.3FF21.06384.06154440.0963181697631.6536594016440.4945807103648162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:05FORECAST2023247-3853.04236.35644.69971.662056000.30.3FF21.042386.042154439.9911339011231.5306692771250.49392516034122162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023247-3855.77835.5145.64470.5013296000.30.3FF23.778389.778154439.5248929087130.9870893423620.59272782200265163121123DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:04FORECAST2023247-3855.79636.0545.92370.23132000.30.3FF23.796391.796154439.4162381436730.8607824342640.59336552792997163121123DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:14FORECAST2023247-3855.81437.65246.73369.956721090909000.30.3FF23.814389.814154439.305660136130.7323835397990.59400298640766163121123DRYL
2023-05-30 00:00:03FORECAST2023247-3864.29244.5154.40167.5765472000.30.3FF32.292401.292154438.3439514404429.6217707243490.84424586527674164131124DRYL
2023-05-29 20:00:06FORECAST2023247-3867.17246.09456.63370.513512000.30.3FF35.172409.172154439.5297934807130.992789366960.8989022672704165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-29 16:00:04FORECAST2023247-3865.04845.21255.1371.4385704000.30.3FF33.048400.048154439.9014709462631.4259322012580.86018380597193165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-29 12:00:06FORECAST2023247-3863.1442.90853.02470.0371576000.30.3FF31.14400.14154439.3380590349530.7699888803090.81774812451613164131124DRYL
2023-05-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023247-3862.67243.10652.88970.1984352000.30.3FF30.672394.672154439.4029998554930.8454030120410.80622463521776164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 04:00:14FORECAST2023247-3863.75241.30652.52969.883597619048000.30.3FF31.752397.752154439.2762010997930.6982012812820.83215725229953164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 00:00:07FORECAST2023247-3863.06842.92652.99769.306892000.30.3FF31.068395.068154439.0436735746630.4287524677230.81600363817653164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 20:00:05FORECAST2023247-3867.0147.94857.47971.3141736000.30.3FF35.01410.01154439.8515405994831.3676491245390.89625663683112165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-28 16:00:04FORECAST2023247-3866.77648.68657.73170.921164000.30.3FF34.776414.776154439.6936908392831.1835883577780.89234733425853165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023247-3866.30850.43258.3769.2181552000.30.3FF34.308411.308154439.0078646780630.3873145113060.88421374465439165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-28 08:00:05FORECAST2023247-3863.55448.4756.01269.4105272000.30.3FF31.554401.554154439.0854843636130.4771549555460.82757770728389164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 04:00:14FORECAST2023247-3863.42848.90256.16569.40929112381000.30.3FF31.428405.428154439.0849857434530.4765776035610.82462245071071164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 00:00:08FORECAST2023247-3860.1739.72249.94671.75404160.141732360.141732360.320.46173236FF28.17387.17154440.0280239595531.5737891363590.73747277326136164122127DRYL
2023-05-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023247-3860.1739.6549.9173.6671936000.320.32FF28.17390.17154440.7933270345932.4720073602460.73747277326136164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023247-3861.44841.34251.39573.9553088000.320.32FF29.448390.448154440.9082576197232.6075063447360.77405795603381164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 12:00:05FORECAST2023247-3861.19642.5351.86372.44014560.322834820.322834820.320.64283482FF29.196393.196154440.3029085181431.8956068011570.76708001897686164122127DRYL
2023-05-27 08:00:05FORECAST2023247-3863.89644.92454.4171.64005520.31496080.31496080.320.6349608FF31.896399.896154439.9823093862531.5203569314540.83543830201091164132128DRYL
2023-05-27 04:00:15FORECAST2023247-3860.90840.5550.72972.3593630250.027559070.027559070.320.34755907FF28.908394.908154440.2705682092231.8576978742740.75896098190311164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 00:00:08FORECAST2023247-3862.09637.25649.67670.0561496000.370.37FF30.096396.096154439.3457078277530.7788686336990.79144868278552164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 20:00:08FORECAST2023247-3861.59240.35250.97272.4966864000.390.39FF29.592401.592154440.3255399837131.9221425861090.77799177232483164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 16:00:07FORECAST2023247-3862.70841.32452.01672.4340056000.390.39FF30.708401.708154440.3004506777731.8927253100760.80712648385238164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 12:00:06FORECAST2023247-3861.21443.5252.36771.45777920.047244120.047244120.40.44724412FF29.214392.214154439.9091795620631.4349330211990.76758237324806164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023247-3861.57442.38651.9871.47007920.047244120.047244120.330.37724412FF29.574393.574154439.9141154341731.4406966712780.77750219029159164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 04:00:09FORECAST2023247-3868.75645.6857.21870.07540940.059055150.059055150.340.39905515FF36.756408.756154439.3534640968830.7878738678970.92222974497741165131119DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:04FORECAST2023247-3847.15642.99845.07770.1597848000.320.32FF15.156387.156154439.3874391216630.8273281725990.29025969524215162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-25 20:00:09FORECAST2023247-3848.1142.92645.51873.9485984000.340.34FF16.11386.11154440.9055817643532.604349798210.32077915500173162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-25 16:00:04FORECAST2023247-3853.58245.60849.59574.5843608000.360.36FF21.582381.582154441.1588974937932.9035543808070.51359083945316163121123DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:08FORECAST2023247-3839.36232.10835.73572.9559392000.480.48FF7.362379.362154440.5092437578632.1377656046370.10299394388821161121122DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:06FORECAST2023247-3847.19239.14643.16972.338676000.430.43FF15.192390.192154440.2622853462631.8479908146830.29138635985006162121122.5DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:20FORECAST2023247-3842.99842.0842.53971.292473028571000.370.37FF10.998390.998154439.8428288150131.3574830101050.17557611378645161121122DRYL