MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 3, 2023

[ Friday, June 2, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 4, 2023 ]

DAY 246 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/04/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.88°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.803
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 407

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 67 in
SWE DAY: 153
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.32 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -39

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-04 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023246-3960.6900239.0700449.8800366.546037272727000.30.3FF28.69002406.69002153437.31670862483 29.1016939921340.8034359288017516 4131124DRYL
2023-06-04 00:00:02FORECAST2023246-3856.64236.6846.66165.1932776000.30.3FF24.642402.642154437.3751487698428.5139194890930.67254965729313163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 12:00:01FORECAST2023246-3855.11235.8745.49167.333596000.30.3FF23.112401.112154438.2454596471229.5086427287130.61530048303805163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023246-3854.71635.38445.0567.3873224000.30.3FF22.716400.716154438.2672454263729.5336561649070.60000253725844163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 04:00:13FORECAST2023246-3855.14835.63645.39267.559087947826000.30.3FF23.148401.148154438.3368755311529.6136395247840.61668273868133163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2023246-3957.63236.8647.24668.8055424000.30.3FF25.632400.632153438.2356795260630.1530436288230.7076347646406164131124DRYL
2023-06-02 20:00:01FORECAST2023246-3956.78637.00446.89571.1678904000.30.3FF24.786400.786153439.1908549878831.256286632460.67775867011685163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 16:00:02FORECAST2023246-3956.51637.65247.08471.1192808000.30.3FF24.516400.516153439.1712582164531.2335440323850.66796402450957163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:02FORECAST2023246-3958.9137.7648.33569.4821016000.30.3FF26.91402.91153438.5098207151330.4685839155260.75015347212981164131124DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:04FORECAST2023246-3958.29838.76848.53369.556984000.30.3FF26.298401.298153438.5401340508930.5035290875360.73020837432707164131124DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2023246-3958.47837.92248.269.147605490909000.30.3FF26.478400.478153438.374342067830.3125360626410.73615620845382164131124DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023246-3958.60438.22848.41677.4481144000.30.3FF26.604403.604153441.7024610628834.209022735160.74027959909293164131124DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2023246-3956.22837.446.81479.7553584000.30.3FF24.228397.228153442.6151640681735.3009310435320.65738863090711163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:03FORECAST2023246-3956.60637.68847.14779.6992704000.30.3FF24.606397.606153442.5930400679435.2743423775330.67124209053866163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:04FORECAST2023246-3957.23637.45447.34578.6115568000.30.3FF25.236399.236153442.1633658834.7591505517550.6938096625541163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023246-3956.82237.36447.09378.6775832000.30.3FF24.822398.822153442.1894818224534.790399746250.67905554222989163121123DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:19FORECAST2023246-3957.52437.61647.5779.136546316667000.30.3FF25.524400.524153442.3708981345835.0077050693720.70389311381049164131124DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:05FORECAST2023246-3957.99236.80647.39972.1929632000.30.3FF25.992406.992153439.6035461021931.7362826263450.71994554090459164131124DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:03FORECAST2023246-3958.2837.41847.84972.418004000.30.3FF26.28408.28153439.6940030749431.8417620734570.72960992377431164131124DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:04FORECAST2023246-3957.95637.41847.68772.62366000.30.3FF25.956404.956153439.776622965931.9381879422240.71872583539274164131124DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:04FORECAST2023246-3956.28237.77847.0372.2527904000.30.3FF24.282403.282153439.6275991759431.7643207773140.65938124377075163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:05FORECAST2023246-3956.17436.75246.46372.3818912000.30.3FF24.174403.174153439.6794907250931.8248330605350.65539163134335163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:12FORECAST2023246-3955.9436.82446.38271.914816254545000.30.3FF23.94403.94153439.4916712125931.6059627806570.64668848398801163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:06FORECAST2023246-3955.92236.42846.17571.267216000.30.3FF23.922403.922153439.2308901953631.3027627254250.64601575419762163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:06FORECAST2023246-3953.99636.01445.00573.5402168000.30.3FF21.996400.996153440.144314600232.3683083189860.57180710393104163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:05FORECAST2023246-3953.58236.55445.06873.2785712000.30.3FF21.582402.582153440.0394385091532.2454613256010.55541722102909163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023246-3955.32836.17645.75272.257376000.30.3FF23.328404.328153439.6294426309631.7664699368560.62357143970847163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2023246-3955.07636.5945.83372.0219048000.30.3FF23.076406.076153439.5347531955631.6561301509420.61391676064192163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:14FORECAST2023246-3954.75238.37246.56271.846788290909000.30.3FF22.752403.752153439.4642973097631.5740983302270.60140000696908163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 00:00:03FORECAST2023246-3958.4639.59649.02870.5849304000.30.3FF26.46407.46153438.9556773636630.9836559353990.73556444330886164131124DRYL
2023-05-29 20:00:05FORECAST2023246-3962.79840.47851.63873.801056000.30.3FF30.798411.798153440.2487981061732.4908262029660.85678802181148165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-29 16:00:04FORECAST2023246-3959.52239.27249.39774.5353168000.30.3FF27.522404.522153440.5425471247432.8359783138210.76928860557075164131124DRYL
2023-05-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023246-3957.32637.02247.17472.8251248000.30.3FF25.326407.326153439.857517254632.0326785882850.69697702780569163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023246-3957.27238.17447.72373.0047048000.30.3FF25.272402.272153439.9295892395332.1169297952170.69507836423286163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 04:00:14FORECAST2023246-3956.24637.29246.76972.702856019048000.30.3FF24.246404.246153439.8084275315531.975328782790.65805332502633163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 00:00:06FORECAST2023246-3958.08238.4848.28172.0536296000.30.3FF26.082402.082153439.5475139101131.670993758880.722983553438164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 20:00:05FORECAST2023246-3961.89841.75651.82774.57082000.30.3FF29.898412.898153440.5567366854632.8526771111590.83533275013663164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 16:00:04FORECAST2023246-3963.55443.28653.4274.3044512000.30.3FF31.554417.554153440.4502458708832.727413800340.87328861291106165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023246-3964.4941.30652.89872.6536928000.30.3FF32.49415.49153439.7886846807431.9522719937110.89182501692792165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-28 08:00:04FORECAST2023246-3958.7344.16851.44972.5802864000.30.3FF26.73407.73153439.7592017208131.9178488079320.7443695230536164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 04:00:14FORECAST2023246-3960.1744.00652.08872.57718072381000.30.3FF28.17412.17153439.7579542352431.9163925192640.78862636443353164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 00:00:07FORECAST2023246-3958.49641.5045074.1259736000.320.32FF26.496397.496153440.3788525038532.6435111946980.73674729856484164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023246-3957.81240.8249.31676.0504416000.320.32FF25.812399.812153441.1469604569733.549421153250.71382156089622164131124DRYL
2023-05-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023246-3958.76640.74849.75776.5792432000.320.32FF26.766398.766153441.3573629192833.7988128331060.74553187267143164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 12:00:05FORECAST2023246-3962.2441.34251.79175.005532000.320.32FF30.24402.24153440.7303742771333.0572161912160.84371866005966164131124DRYL
2023-05-27 08:00:04FORECAST2023246-3963.35642.42252.88974.5905792000.320.32FF31.356406.356153440.564633288932.8619711720550.86910039385282165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-27 04:00:15FORECAST2023246-3960.5337.45448.99274.834418225000.320.32FF28.53403.53153440.6620489546832.976688067360.798946971391164131124DRYL
2023-05-27 00:00:07FORECAST2023246-3958.6436.82447.73272.43556000.370.37FF26.64403.64153439.7010576774331.8499923454570.74145158052258164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 20:00:08FORECAST2023246-3961.35839.66850.51374.9923072000.390.39FF29.358410.358153440.7250947048233.0509916928530.82151102188673164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 16:00:07FORECAST2023246-3960.63837.5849.10975.1421704000.390.39FF28.638408.638153440.7849123442733.1215349931220.80198333045592164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 12:00:06FORECAST2023246-3958.65836.28447.47174.107888000.40.4FF26.658400.658153440.371616221932.6350104133510.74203654392512164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023246-3958.2835.65446.96774.0265112000.330.33FF26.28402.28153440.3390522008932.5967637795460.72960992377431164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 04:00:09FORECAST2023246-3960.81838.8449.82973.2237174000.340.34FF28.818409.818153440.0174424776132.2197128590510.80698209928373164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:04FORECAST2023246-3959.50440.4649.98270.694884000.320.32FF27.504409.504153439.0000614767331.0350584220910.76873772703644164131124DRYL
2023-05-25 20:00:08FORECAST2023246-3958.80239.95649.37974.48232000.340.34FF26.802407.802153440.5213635176832.811053164360.74669145083944164131124DRYL
2023-05-25 16:00:04FORECAST2023246-3959.93643.59251.76475.2623368000.360.36FF27.936397.936153440.8328601108833.1781111901720.78175502714445164121123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:08FORECAST2023246-3956.91233.96245.43773.0647696000.480.48FF24.912409.912153439.9536880924332.1451148551440.68228815968083163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023246-3960.90833.58447.24672.7488072000.430.43FF28.908412.908153439.8268782706931.9968807686920.80945238727041164131124DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:20FORECAST2023246-3962.83443.30453.06971.465263428571000.370.37FF30.834417.834153439.3106871064931.3954539810520.85760515461899165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:05FORECAST2023246-3947.49844.88846.19372.2546032000.370.37FF15.498412.498153439.6283279414331.7651703908870.31838221931304162131123DRYL
2023-05-24 20:00:06FORECAST2023246-3944.92432.97238.94875.258519200.120.420.54FF12.924402.924153440.8313370699333.1763136448390.23238758561065161132125DRYL
2023-05-24 16:00:05FORECAST2023246-3948.0242.22445.12273.9059128000.370.37FF16.02418.02153440.2907807485632.5400920486470.33733316107515162131123DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:07FORECAST2023246-3952.35847.4849.91970.761934400.860.421.28FF20.358436.358153439.027121105731.0664083435030.506510339620991631331210.5DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:06FORECAST2023246-3951.56646.34648.95671.429086400.830.491.32FF19.566428.566153439.2961137200631.3785200620940.47476593304298162133129DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:13FORECAST2023246-3949.08247.31848.273.2657956347830.007874020.437874020.360.79787402FF17.082420.082153440.0343158609832.2394642581620.37714226744013162132126DRYL