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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 2, 2023

[ Thursday, June 1, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 3, 2023 ]

DAY 245 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/03/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.633
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 408

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 69 in
SWE DAY: 152
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 30.29 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -40

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-03 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023245-4055.6500235.9299445.7899869.197054347826000.30.3FF23.65002407.65002152437.78710279043 30.2935779445670.6330255165792816 3131123.5DRYL
2023-06-03 00:00:02FORECAST2023245-3953.07832.12642.60270.661268000.30.3FF21.078405.078153438.9864932834431.0193422502810.53623287243199163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 12:00:01FORECAST2023245-3953.56432.79243.17871.541712000.30.3FF21.564405.564153439.3414788899231.4312415523970.55487358901873163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 08:00:02FORECAST2023245-3952.71833.15242.93571.5996696000.30.3FF20.718404.718153439.3648189371231.4583758697610.52237113520278163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 04:00:07FORECAST2023245-3952.37633.1742.77371.125740690909000.30.3FF20.376404.376153439.1738626357931.2365662720580.50917710474527163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2023245-4054.46433.0843.77279.5120544000.30.3FF22.464407.464152441.9275991706535.1385713061180.58904516091552163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 20:00:01FORECAST2023245-4051.92632.7242.32381.6293864000.30.3FF19.926402.926152442.7641708061336.1425675828090.49180354589079162131123DRYL
2023-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2023245-4052.30432.8142.55781.5989808000.30.3FF20.304403.304152442.7521891686236.1281273831290.50639764880756163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2023245-4053.49234.30443.89880.5812296000.30.3FF21.492404.492152442.3505995685735.6451552275330.55211863443614163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2023245-4053.20433.63843.42180.6235416000.30.3FF21.204404.204152442.3673159501135.6652196999840.54107497308415163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 04:00:19FORECAST2023245-4053.18633.92643.55681.093230316667000.30.3FF21.186405.186152442.5527572563135.8880326714620.54038360043768163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-01 00:00:04FORECAST2023245-4053.61833.4443.52974.145908000.30.3FF21.618410.618152439.7871393893332.6084167767440.55693807470362163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2023245-4053.8734.2544.0674.433236000.30.3FF21.87411.87152439.9024901320832.7433658649890.56655103009086163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 16:00:04FORECAST2023245-4052.57432.3642.46774.6690024000.30.3FF20.574408.574152439.9970780878532.8541428797350.51681790569591163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 12:00:04FORECAST2023245-4052.41234.1643.28674.2043576000.30.3FF20.412409.412152439.8106113959232.6358638842970.51056667406522163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 08:00:04FORECAST2023245-4052.62833.51243.0774.273336000.30.3FF20.628408.628152439.8383070424732.6682583646360.51890080715713163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-31 04:00:12FORECAST2023245-4052.10632.70242.40473.838929854545000.30.3FF20.106410.106152439.6638068433632.4643049930890.49875294923371162131123DRYL
2023-05-31 00:00:05FORECAST2023245-4053.1533.47643.31373.0567184000.30.3FF21.15410.15152439.3491079487732.0974040587040.53900049081247163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 20:00:05FORECAST2023245-4051.96233.87242.91775.154272000.30.3FF19.962408.962152440.1915869278133.0822782560840.49319329505219162131123DRYL
2023-05-30 16:00:04FORECAST2023245-4052.59234.46643.52974.9506824000.30.3FF20.592410.592152440.1100120441832.9865457337830.5175122599976163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023245-4052.95233.67443.31373.99266000.30.3FF20.952410.952152439.7255819911632.5364654815740.5313853987672163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2023245-4052.59233.9843.28673.787004000.30.3FF20.592412.592152439.6429354311532.439935035230.5175122599976163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 04:00:14FORECAST2023245-4052.86234.73643.79973.700447490909000.30.3FF20.862410.862152439.6081382313632.3993165082970.52792002428213163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-30 00:00:03FORECAST2023245-4052.77235.0643.91672.828352000.30.3FF20.772410.772152439.2571137217531.9903716966310.52445253496568163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 20:00:05FORECAST2023245-4054.42835.13244.7876.3047456000.30.3FF22.428411.428152440.6517702148333.6238212244330.58768940325696163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 16:00:04FORECAST2023245-4052.73633.72843.23276.8040272000.30.3FF20.736406.736152440.851062134933.8591369673580.52306500574454163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023245-4055.18434.05244.61874.8589544000.30.3FF23.184412.184152440.0732444106832.9434229359990.61591666687041163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023245-4053.54634.35843.95275.0867504000.30.3FF21.546406.546152440.1645368483333.0505247132620.55418509345236163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 04:00:14FORECAST2023245-4053.88835.22244.55574.633365619048000.30.3FF21.888409.888152439.9827844752832.837396019830.56723623510195163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 00:00:06FORECAST2023245-4054.26636.10445.18574.1932392000.30.3FF22.266406.266152439.8061467721932.6306426490990.58157576350185163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 20:00:04FORECAST2023245-4056.44436.37446.40977.1800928000.30.3FF24.444413.444152441.0010046961834.0364984673440.66155942291612163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 16:00:04FORECAST2023245-4057.93836.3247.12977.1417168000.30.3FF25.938415.938152440.9857102149334.0183947702470.71271201360739164131124DRYL
2023-05-28 12:00:04FORECAST2023245-4055.36435.4245.39275.3667776000.30.3FF23.364413.364152440.2766893173333.1822353262430.62255382339729163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 08:00:04FORECAST2023245-4056.46237.29246.87775.2088456000.30.3FF24.462411.462152440.2134464709833.107945126680.66219640678951163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 04:00:14FORECAST2023245-4056.22835.67245.9575.25621912381000.30.3FF24.228414.228152440.2324195554133.1302274314670.65388001486271163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 00:00:06FORECAST2023245-4050.9932.50441.74776.4490992000.320.32FF18.99400.99152440.7094159901233.6918378614030.45575418259643162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023245-4051.36832.70242.03578.2916984000.320.32FF19.368404.368152441.4433807792834.5613520286480.47028556511882162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 16:00:05FORECAST2023245-4051.38632.3641.87378.9312984000.320.32FF19.386402.386152441.6973513454534.8637454415370.47097867888042162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 12:00:05FORECAST2023245-4055.83234.53845.18577.5338216000.320.32FF23.832401.832152441.1419106078134.2034181973490.63963754696242163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 08:00:04FORECAST2023245-4057.30835.1546.22977.33958000.320.32FF25.308405.308152441.0645512129134.1117471436950.69158465992161163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 04:00:15FORECAST2023245-4056.46231.96444.21377.146031025000.320.32FF24.462405.462152440.9874296929334.0204299327260.66219640678951163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 00:00:06FORECAST2023245-4058.76633.7146.23874.507372000.370.37FF26.766406.766152439.9322391216632.778194995030.73939164597568164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 20:00:07FORECAST2023245-4059.91834.89847.40877.418556000.390.39FF27.918410.918152441.0960090980634.1490160817350.77427151456235164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 16:00:06FORECAST2023245-4056.53434.4345.48277.3814592000.390.39FF24.534409.534152441.0812334091734.1315094669370.66473968724406163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 12:00:05FORECAST2023245-4052.17833.74642.96276.2056776000.40.4FF20.178404.178152440.6121964362433.5771509882480.50153293464638163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 08:00:05FORECAST2023245-4053.02433.40443.21476.0686064000.330.33FF21.024406.024152440.5574254471733.5125893929380.53415599996483163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 04:00:09FORECAST2023245-4053.7832.61243.19675.6391422000.340.34FF21.78410.78152440.3856963724233.310396310760.56312204442458163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2023245-4055.79634.66445.2373.081576000.320.32FF23.796411.796152439.3591182671732.1090567929350.63833276389925163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 20:00:07FORECAST2023245-4055.2234.62844.92476.791276000.340.34FF23.22411.22152440.8459755439933.8531249814880.61724688983453163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2023245-4056.42636.46446.44577.8709208000.360.36FF24.426400.426152441.2760744493134.3625742443770.66092197671943163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:07FORECAST2023245-4051.09838.04844.57374.705196000.480.48FF19.098415.098152440.0115937116132.8711523504990.45990082955599162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023245-4049.9137.83243.87174.5884936000.430.43FF17.91413.91152439.9647848462232.8163105387270.41462548448799162131123DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:19FORECAST2023245-4060.09847.5753.83474.081030628571000.370.37FF28.098417.098152439.7610820575832.5779541891610.77947287405296164131124DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:05FORECAST2023245-4060.83648.52454.6872.8640928000.370.37FF28.836426.836152439.2715149281832.0071204281230.80006828046724164131124DRYL
2023-05-24 20:00:06FORECAST2023245-4058.29845.93252.11575.653398400.120.420.54FF26.298420.298152440.3913999799133.3171060346140.7244693486071164132128DRYL
2023-05-24 16:00:05FORECAST2023245-4063.57247.9355.75174.4804704000.370.37FF31.572431.572152439.9214448056632.7655561481730.86582072221553165131124.5DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:07FORECAST2023245-4065.04845.19455.12171.530536800.860.421.28FF33.048446.048152438.7332923815831.3828279160860.894330281496471651331213.5DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:05FORECAST2023245-4061.68245.30253.49272.150456800.830.491.32FF29.682438.682152438.9837185581931.6728758217360.822200487615881641331212DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:13FORECAST2023245-4061.53840.1950.86473.5315740347830.019685050.429685050.360.78968505FF29.538432.538152439.5402261811732.3200846827060.81854629623622164132128DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:04FORECAST2023245-4060.74651.38656.06672.9057752000.30.3FF28.746450.746152439.2883085597232.0266546718430.7976202617277164131124DRYL
2023-05-23 20:00:06FORECAST2023245-4060.78252.9756.87674.211012000.390.39FF28.782455.782152439.8132834280132.6389888542350.79860160843879164131124DRYL
2023-05-23 16:00:09FORECAST2023245-4058.02852.4355.22975.015924000.420.42FF26.028444.028152440.1361578348133.0172205657880.71567347573557164131124DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:08FORECAST2023245-4045.73441.61243.67378.31462172016500.120.570.69FF13.734399.734152441.4524902372234.5721847803530.26767952477881162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023245-4045.66241.01843.3478.72116428189600.140.650.79FF13.662396.662152441.6139573872734.7643648886610.26539008277026162122125DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:16FORECAST2023245-4043.55642.15242.85478.6996112494510.023622060.123622060.690.81362206FF11.556399.556152441.6054013201834.7541734095560.20307396316421161132125DRYL