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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 28, 2023

[ Saturday, May 27, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, May 29, 2023 ]

DAY 240 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/29/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.670
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 474

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.63 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.63 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 81 in
SWE DAY: 147
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.53 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -45

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-29 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023240-4554.6600238.2800246.4700280.845357619048000.630.63FF22.66002473.66002147439.4732274597 35.5293702379770.6703382734550116 3131123.5DRYL
2023-05-29 00:00:02FORECAST2023240-4452.57436.2344.40280.4081832000.630.63FF20.574471.574148439.8987559571135.3714597584510.59673526901295163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 12:00:01FORECAST2023240-4453.27636.84245.05982.2877416000.630.63FF21.276472.276148440.6512685670236.2601977235550.62204060849379163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2023240-4452.48436.71644.682.3371384000.630.63FF20.484471.484148440.6709969930636.2835888682840.59345902521336163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 04:00:11FORECAST2023240-4453.25837.25645.25782.30766152381000.630.63FF21.258472.258148440.6592246179336.2696303071970.62139774233407163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2023240-4555.0437.02246.03182.569185600.020.630.65FF23.04470.04147440.1653863158736.344097477410.68315521713501163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 20:00:02FORECAST2023240-4556.337.88647.09385.032098400.020.630.65FF24.3469.3147441.1490622302737.5118304686320.72404495231619164131124DRYL
2023-05-27 16:00:02FORECAST2023240-4555.8537.18446.51785.100584800.020.630.65FF23.85468.85147441.1763275395837.5443634735350.70974090883974164131124DRYL
2023-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2023240-4554.60836.57245.5983.810265600.020.630.65FF22.608467.608147440.6618370500636.9319856029490.66856750612443163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 08:00:02FORECAST2023240-4554.60836.08645.34783.822959200.020.630.65FF22.608468.608147440.6669066009336.93800413280.66856750612443163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 04:00:12FORECAST2023240-4554.53636.75245.64483.33027422500.020.630.65FF22.536467.536147440.4700188199536.7044874561570.66611039825894163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 00:00:04FORECAST2023240-4553.7836.24845.01480.948832800.070.630.7FF21.78464.78147439.5148608152335.5782149812470.63989778913139163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 20:00:04FORECAST2023240-4554.42836.51845.47384.662665600.090.630.72FF22.428464.428147441.0019044955337.3363967692680.66241138166058163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 16:00:03FORECAST2023240-4553.83436.0544.94284.681361600.090.630.72FF21.834464.834147441.0093550702837.3452726656890.64179387088096163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 12:00:03FORECAST2023240-4555.11235.70845.4182.991243200.10.630.73FF23.112465.112147440.3343913656736.5438985631520.68555985949474163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2023240-4555.36436.80646.08582.72723600.030.630.66FF23.364466.364147440.2286958549936.4189032159680.69391381664206163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 04:00:08FORECAST2023240-4555.88637.16646.52682.63803900.040.630.67FF23.886467.886147440.192969737536.3766838006930.71089789559593164131124DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2023240-4556.40836.66246.53580.910181600.050.60.65FF24.408463.408147439.4993107416835.5599690451840.72742574312528164131124DRYL
2023-05-25 20:00:04FORECAST2023240-4555.0436.39245.71684.622046400.080.590.67FF23.04464.04147440.9857160496337.3171137252890.68315521713501163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 16:00:02FORECAST2023240-4553.36635.1544.25884.912523200.10.590.69FF21.366459.366147441.1014464468537.4550368049720.62524984139509163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:04FORECAST2023240-4554.0535.56444.80782.99244400.220.590.81FF22.05463.05147440.3348719450936.544467201150.64934289102135163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2023240-4553.79835.6944.74482.910083200.160.60.76FF21.798461.798147440.3019064344836.5054676956010.64053020140403163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:16FORECAST2023240-4552.03434.32243.17883.36074102857100.110.590.7FF20.034458.034147440.4822011748936.7189226998350.5769839527479163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:04FORECAST2023240-4550.39634.98842.69283.47043200.10.60.7FF18.396455.396147440.5260540362136.7709000376570.51608381170133163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 20:00:04FORECAST2023240-4551.02632.9942.00885.647394400.140.610.75FF19.026456.026147441.3938493889337.8042331043480.53963040852932163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023240-4549.98234.19642.08985.377581600.090.610.7FF17.982455.982147441.2865551261437.6759788692650.50057457734614163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:06FORECAST2023240-4550.59434.26842.43184.174051200.110.640.75FF18.594458.594147440.8070604332137.1045160742260.52349411941756163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:04FORECAST2023240-4550.30633.24241.77484.540492800.190.630.82FF18.306455.306147440.9532084939837.2784015478230.51271349821101163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:11FORECAST2023240-4549.96432.9941.47785.05519803478300.070.620.69FF17.964452.964147441.1582590195837.522803085590.49990007347146163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:03FORECAST2023240-4549.67633.7141.69383.186016800.020.610.63FF17.676463.676147440.4123237234536.6361469601860.4891093612934162131123DRYL
2023-05-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023240-4549.76633.29641.53184.727315200.10.620.72FF17.766465.766147441.0276666140337.3670901211270.49248097386546162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 16:00:06FORECAST2023240-4549.02832.88240.95585.089427200.070.680.75FF17.028462.028147441.1718858801237.5390630662830.46487138020705162131123DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:06FORECAST2023240-4543.98833.83638.91284.9665601201650.137795350.217795350.680.89779535FF11.988451.988147441.1229661637337.4807010249360.28719996105973162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023240-4544.47432.66638.5785.5296570818960.181102460.271102460.710.98110246FF12.474451.474147441.3470387891837.7482608817490.30295159537199162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:14FORECAST2023240-4541.95433.60237.77885.3414144494510.185039470.315039470.71.01503947FF9.954450.954147441.2721672397137.6587909094110.2258247408039161132125DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023240-4541.50434.30437.90484.65288560.031496080.121496080.360.48149608FF9.504462.504147440.9980069101537.3317538287930.21332163491908161132125DRYL
2023-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2023240-4541.55834.44838.00384.93155440.007874020.097874020.420.51787402FF9.558463.558147441.1090257878337.464075220030.21480039123943161132125DRYL
2023-05-22 16:00:06FORECAST2023240-4541.82834.4338.12985.55649280.023622060.053622060.460.51362206FF9.828457.828147441.3577095017937.7610176952140.22228278229178161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:07FORECAST2023240-4550.7239.50645.11383.726449600.230.430.66FF18.72472.72147440.6283586389136.8922480619110.5282057050618163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023240-4551.0840.85645.96883.49530514845500.230.420.65FF19.08469.08147440.5359962613636.7826874367210.54164341189022163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:09FORECAST2023240-4550.64838.71444.68183.564764600.250.370.62FF18.648471.648147440.5637570725936.8156066510620.52551381123055163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023240-4556.08443.03449.55981.02458240.539370370.549370370.40.94937037FF24.084491.084147439.5453318155535.6139769562240.717222272414491641331212DRYL
2023-05-21 20:00:07FORECAST2023240-4557.18244.11450.64883.01812720.55118140.59118140.421.0111814FF25.182489.182147440.3451504226336.5566297096890.751037455755991641331212DRYL
2023-05-21 16:00:06FORECAST2023240-4556.46244.7850.62182.7647353792560.574803460.574803460.420.99480346FF24.462492.462147440.2437130829236.4366544156890.72910840319351641331212DRYL
2023-05-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023240-4541.16229.42635.29487.1309409123130.31496080.33496080.330.6649608FF9.162451.162147441.9824873880538.5103499928850.2040946953309161132125DRYL
2023-05-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023240-4539.25428.18433.71987.8827694261520.267716680.287716680.330.61771668FF7.254449.254147442.2799502822138.8687868924620.15711113062429161132125DRYL
2023-05-21 04:00:19FORECAST2023240-4538.10228.47233.28789.0035518566920.389763990.559763990.330.88976399FF6.102446.102147442.7223374849139.4038605224540.13248764530939161133127.5DRYL
2023-05-21 00:00:07FORECAST2023240-4540.24430.75835.50196.9494817975740.141732360.201732360.370.57173236FF8.244444.244147445.8228423384343.2222935382320.18052897364306161132125DRYL
2023-05-20 20:00:04FORECAST2023240-4539.72229.37234.547102.824202427010.137795350.197795350.370.56779535FF7.722443.722147448.0752589716546.0729811310350.16792143123338161132125DRYL
2023-05-20 16:00:05FORECAST2023240-4541.97228.09435.033103.28902895220.082677210.192677210.370.56267721FF9.972435.972147448.2520465730946.2995186163730.22633332312735161132125DRYL
2023-05-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023240-4547.89430.05638.97598.36784080.007874020.007874020.370.37787402FF15.894454.894147446.3697346354243.9084269945550.42281993613278162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 08:00:06FORECAST2023240-4547.60629.55238.579100.0244048000.360.36FF15.606436.606147447.0059848699744.7115075786560.41225956948626162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 04:00:14FORECAST2023240-4549.78432.25241.018100.015434389070.011811030.061811030.450.51181103FF17.784436.784147447.0025467342444.7071538846460.49315536856044162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:10FORECAST2023240-4550.32434.21442.26984.19882960.03937010.10937010.410.5193701FF18.324460.324147440.8169471017937.1162710138160.51338764126798163132127DRYL
2023-05-19 20:00:05FORECAST2023240-4550.34234.5242.43190.025861600.070.40.47FF18.342453.342147443.124759457239.8926882664270.51406174607163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 16:00:07FORECAST2023240-4546.59831.80239.290.674120800.040.420.46FF14.598448.598147443.379399320440.2030372142090.3758427140431162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023240-4554.89638.60646.75185.28996800.170.410.58FF22.896468.896147441.2516987198537.6343432637610.67832274905417163132127DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:05FORECAST2023240-4554.37437.79646.08585.78228297657600.190.430.62FF22.374464.374147441.4474618695137.8683710933820.66055594804769163132127DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:20FORECAST2023240-4551.1735.29443.23286.39068470.059055150.229055150.430.65905515FF19.17459.17147441.6890475796938.15781924490.54499602019112163132127DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:06FORECAST2023240-4540.17231.71235.94285.4031314402240.090551230.400551230.460.86055123FF8.172438.172147441.2967184755337.6881216521050.17875562794729161132125DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023240-4539.9231.71235.81690.65265040.082677210.372677210.440.81267721FF7.92436.92147443.3709723380940.1927537528730.17263546825593161132125DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:06FORECAST2023240-4542.76436.55439.65990.77269840.023622060.133622060.480.61362206FF10.764444.764147443.4180844427840.250256044230.24934001228822162132126DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023240-4532.7231.13631.92888.11227079678200.310.60.91FF0.72451.72147442.3706399839738.9782816228130.052474274577541161132125DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:06FORECAST2023240-4536.15834.01635.08787.285402400.210.480.69FF4.158450.158147442.0436468472738.5839575934280.097218028264759161132125DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:14FORECAST2023240-4540.08237.88638.98482.42899383157900.050.560.61FF8.082488.082147440.109209054636.2777592783830.17655438914936161131122.5DRYL