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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 29, 2023

[ Tuesday, March 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 30, 2023 ]

DAY 180 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/30/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.421
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.27 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 158 in
SWE DAY: 87
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 68.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -105

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-30 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023180-10535.5400626.6931.11503157.50952750.0399999999999640.0399999999999645.275.31TF3.540063.5400687434.11321472902 68.3769673334740.4214854996012217 2111122WETL
2023-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2023180-10434.82623.4529.138159.938992005.225.22TF2.8265.82688435.7381918752169.6915271844230.39205271940437162111122WETL
2023-03-29 12:00:01FORECAST2023180-10435.61823.23429.426159.9381064005.225.22TF3.6186.61888435.7378271041369.6910829538860.42472801802942162111122WETL
2023-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2023180-10434.62823.75629.192159.95940303004005.225.22TF2.6285.62888435.7465987767169.7017658126930.38399194548458162111122WETL
2023-03-29 04:00:17FORECAST2023180-10435.02423.48629.255159.69792435005.225.22TF3.0246.02488435.6388678760369.5706229659860.40016007835797162111122WETL
2023-03-29 00:00:03FORECAST2023180-10535.18623.3629.273162.293704606040.114173290.114173295.275.38417329TF3.1863.18687436.0914765253670.7749012724180.40682569233574172112124WETL
2023-03-28 20:00:01FORECAST2023180-10536.03223.77429.903162.087479806580.062992160.062992165.275.33299216TF4.0325.03287436.0066972401670.671226734450.44203186223378172111122WETL
2023-03-28 16:00:02FORECAST2023180-10535.40224.58429.993162.168008430020.066929170.066929175.275.33692917TF3.4024.40287436.039807947670.7117072510720.41575500317833172111122WETL
2023-03-28 12:00:04FORECAST2023180-10534.03423.50428.769162.182659455860.066929170.066929175.275.33692917TF2.0343.03487436.0458312368870.7190725546410.36012156929738172111122WETL
2023-03-28 08:00:04FORECAST2023180-10535.40223.64829.525162.147122669410.062992160.072992165.275.34299216TF3.4024.40287436.0312210638570.7012078895350.41575500317833172111122WETL
2023-03-28 04:00:13FORECAST2023180-10535.72623.3629.543161.862128355110.043307110.053307115.275.32330711TF3.7263.72687435.9140041717470.5579684950370.42922950041763172111122WETL
2023-03-28 00:00:05FORECAST2023180-10535.5124.24229.876165.014110221240.027559070.027559075.275.29755907TF3.512.5187437.2056920044472.1451082497720.42023632938377172111122WETL
2023-03-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023180-10535.36624.38629.876164.961014578980.007874020.007874025.275.27787402TF3.3661.36687437.1840188375972.1183193051640.41426362825295172111122WETL
2023-03-27 16:00:03FORECAST2023180-10534.98824.13429.561165.297684029130.082677210.102677215.275.37267721TF2.9881.98887437.321394820372.2882137401830.39868269773733172112124WETL
2023-03-27 12:00:06FORECAST2023180-10535.72623.91829.822165.028083377820.031496080.031496085.275.30149608TF3.7261.72687437.2113952363272.152158586790.42922950041763172111122WETL
2023-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2023180-10536.08624.87230.479165.031712985880.031496080.041496085.275.31149608TF4.0863.08687437.2128766505972.1539899731310.44429779634141172111122WETL
2023-03-27 04:00:13FORECAST2023180-10535.07823.4529.264164.704754065610.015748040.025748045.275.29574804TF3.0781.07887437.079374478771.9890508806630.40237882391129172111122WETL
2023-03-27 00:00:04FORECAST2023180-10535.34822.92829.138169.400533474620.031496080.031496085.255.28149608TF3.348-2.65287438.9861332335874.3644851577290.41351840260285172111122WETL
2023-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2023180-10535.81623.3629.588168.957672063390.015748040.015748045.235.24574804TF3.816-0.18487438.8072755357674.1398557590.43298780411882172111122WETL
2023-03-26 16:00:03FORECAST2023180-10535.38423.41429.399168.974962864590.015748040.015748045.235.24574804TF3.384-2.61687438.8142625176474.1486237133720.41500916264458172111122WETL
2023-03-26 12:00:05FORECAST2023180-10536.91422.60429.759169.248705425290.047244120.047244125.235.27724412TF4.9141.91487438.9248373558674.2874605014870.47922613959475172111122WETL
2023-03-26 08:00:06FORECAST2023180-10536.82423.68430.254169.283302134280.055118140.055118145.225.27511814TF4.8242.82487438.9388067863674.3050106476760.47541697552259172111122WETL
2023-03-26 04:00:08FORECAST2023180-10535.0623.46829.264169.07850828781005.255.25TF3.06-1.9487438.8560974200374.2011343047870.40163888881982172111122WETL
2023-03-26 00:00:04FORECAST2023180-10535.1523.5429.345165.41341478973005.075.07TF3.15-6.8587437.3685909488272.3466321506160.40534203740165172111122WETL
2023-03-25 20:00:06FORECAST2023180-10536.42824.24230.335165.31484350085005.115.11TF4.428-0.57287437.3283934956372.2968749292110.458687991339172111122WETL
2023-03-25 16:00:05FORECAST2023180-10536.17622.4629.318165.34239405514005.15.1TF4.176-0.82487437.3396296478672.3107813811680.44807836587052172111122WETL
2023-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2023180-10535.94222.06429.003165.5144422661005.095.09TF3.942-8.05887437.4097795950572.3976357114110.43825955260595172111122WETL
2023-03-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023180-10536.51824.04430.281165.33132255368005.065.06TF4.518-2.48287437.3351143676672.3051928575720.46248468684251172111122WETL
2023-03-25 04:00:13FORECAST2023180-10534.7920.44427.617165.47189054254005.095.09TF2.79-6.2187437.3924326534872.3761527401730.39058356231436172111122WETL
2023-03-25 00:00:06FORECAST2023180-10535.0620.62427.842163.12827971886004.994.99TF3.06-6.9487436.4341182989771.194746928730.40163888881982172111122WETL
2023-03-24 20:00:06FORECAST2023180-10536.06821.63228.85156.57132176542004.994.99TF4.068-2.93287433.7224384146367.9084954618980.44354227891777172111122WETL
2023-03-24 16:00:04FORECAST2023180-10535.54621.21828.382157.08530329379005.075.07TF3.546-5.45487433.9366345207368.1650678439730.42173243555232172111122WETL
2023-03-24 12:00:04FORECAST2023180-10532.61220.80426.708160.64083237751005.115.11TF0.612-11.38887435.410728545169.9447418595820.30529033689773172111122WETL
2023-03-24 08:00:04FORECAST2023180-10533.94420.76827.356161.14730384147005.195.19TF1.944-5.05687435.6196264443970.1989283019430.35654933929826172111122WETL
2023-03-24 04:00:15FORECAST2023180-10534.35820.67827.518161.16301601363005.095.09TF2.358-8.64287435.6261027491670.206816573320.37308096544269172111122WETL
2023-03-24 00:00:09FORECAST2023180-10535.38419.43627.41160.47954601859005.125.12TF3.384-1.61687435.3441483586569.8638312904460.41500916264458172111122WETL
2023-03-23 20:00:05FORECAST2023180-10534.35819.14826.753154.93132295994005.345.34TF2.358-5.64287433.0371144615267.091013034280.37308096544269172111122WETL
2023-03-23 16:00:04FORECAST2023180-10531.22619.43625.331154.5937946366700.025.225.24TF-0.774-11.77487432.8957132879766.9229909991360.25573821131851172111122WETL
2023-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2023180-10530.32620.1225.223158.764493157500.215.175.38TF-1.674-14.67487434.6344723522269.0045217117780.22596622586522171112123WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:06FORECAST2023180-10531.44220.01225.727158.4298648307400.215.145.35TF-0.558-8.55887434.495644855368.8370862839680.26317608499364172112124WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:17FORECAST2023180-10531.04621.84826.447160.6422206382600.25.525.72TF-0.954-4.95487435.4113015108869.9454383657030.24962475968669172112124WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023180-10529.94819.23824.593163.41033445050.125984320.315984325.255.56598432TF-2.052-16.05287436.5497541006571.336741321870.21407059491349171112123WETL
2023-03-22 20:00:05FORECAST2023180-10530.30821.21825.763162.984039701780.122047310.292047315.255.54204731TF-1.692-13.69287436.3749512636471.1221523816160.22539143995848171112123WETL
2023-03-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023180-10532.2720.33626.303162.84032473114005.495.49TF0.27-14.7387436.3159780388271.0498355492280.29267418459352172111122WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:06FORECAST2023180-10533.65623.48628.571166.9963225818600.525.626.14TF1.656-13.34487438.0127254844373.1465143999590.34520380469875172113126WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023180-10533.51223.05428.283166.395865347900.425.666.08TF1.512-8.48887437.7686855362672.8428992520170.33958199973989172112124WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:18FORECAST2023180-10533.49421.86627.68168.6920189875400.625.766.38TF1.494-16.50687438.6998900923474.0051701892870.33888174415545172113126WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:06FORECAST2023180-10539.30825.89832.603165.208922878005.535.53TF7.308-0.69287437.2851877586872.2434148601140.58015784340307173111122.5WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:07FORECAST2023180-10539.8325.732.765163.98023762353005.325.32TF7.833.8387436.7831483379671.6238044544120.60170648935292173111122.5WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023180-10538.33625.30431.82164.39648676904005.355.35TF6.336-2.66487436.9534027890571.8336043002960.53943475403517173111122.5WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023180-10534.55623.77429.165168.284836059990.066929170.896929174.975.86692917TF2.556-17.44487438.5351530581173.7988163389260.3810729469323172113126WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023180-10534.6123.34228.976166.624587361830.027559070.737559074.785.51755907TF2.61-14.3987437.8616874328572.9585229900530.38326157158156172113126WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:16FORECAST2023180-10528.09418.66223.378164.447674748310.031496080.481496084.745.22149608TF-3.906-15.90687436.974327297771.8594120488140.16121229882449171112123WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:06FORECAST2023180-10529.5717.94223.756168.195853084210.007874020.467874024.565.02787402TF-2.43-15.4387438.4991298612273.7537352236910.20254698217772171112123WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:08FORECAST2023180-10530.63218.46424.548165.2158400924100.464.85.26TF-1.368-12.36887437.2880096919172.2469058835870.23586324602283171112123WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023180-10534.23220.85827.545167.859063161670.192913490.742913494.745.48291349TF2.232-18.76887438.3627126196873.5831542653460.36802319306636172113126WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:07FORECAST2023180-10529.82219.34624.584170.533059490870.460630170.510630175.125.63063017TF-2.178-22.17887439.4426105484974.9394928474880.21018771477981171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023180-10529.82219.34624.584170.533059490870.460630170.510630175.125.63063017TF-2.178-22.17887439.4426105484974.9394928474880.21018771477981171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:06FORECAST2023180-10525.21425.21425.214172.805644712960.035433090.315433094.915.22543309TF-6.786-20.78687440.3546498244376.0957691652590.097506035441553171112123WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:07FORECAST2023180-10525.21425.21425.214172.550498136510.03937010.29937014.885.1793701TF-6.786-18.78687440.2525159548475.9657909338610.097506035441553171112123WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:05FORECAST2023180-10522.58622.58622.586172.060361776950.007874020.177874025.075.24787402TF-9.414-26.41487440.0561310755275.7162171150170.057532183513713171112123WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023180-10518.26618.26618.266170.3492429029300.314.695TF-13.734-37.73487439.368610449274.8461101453330.02083012490094171112123WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:07FORECAST2023180-10517.85217.85217.852169.479968148800.264.594.85TF-14.148-40.14887439.0181931081274.4047893847090.018710548256226171112123WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:15FORECAST2023180-10519.95819.95819.958168.6761878321400.234.614.84TF-12.042-21.04287438.6934883465673.997145241080.031713889442671171112123WETL