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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 25, 2023

[ Friday, March 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 26, 2023 ]

DAY 176 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/26/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.120
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -18

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 169 in
SWE DAY: 83
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 436.29 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.62 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -109

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-26 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023176-10926.6700216.5000221.58502168.752943333330.200000000000051.684.456.13TT-5.32998-18.3299883436.28657535312 73.624643727660.1197834470096517 1115127.5WETL
2023-03-26 00:00:01FORECAST2023176-10822.40610.59816.502165.053142354290.007874021.487874024.415.89787402TF-9.594-19.59484435.3794085376671.860739495490.045107323938087161114126WETL
2023-03-25 12:00:01FORECAST2023176-10821.18210.14815.665165.210178410530.043307111.523307114.415.93330711TF-10.818-20.81884435.4442204565471.9398173494620.032644598104711161115127.5WETL
2023-03-25 08:00:01FORECAST2023176-10823.14413.02818.086165.160480183760.031496081.511496084.415.92149608TF-8.856-18.85684435.4237118011471.9147893244730.054303850919567161115127.5WETL
2023-03-25 04:00:11FORECAST2023176-10823.43213.17218.302165.253201937640.070866181.550866184.415.96086618TT-8.568-18.56884435.4619726149671.9614852967030.058270766269605161115127.5WETL
2023-03-25 00:00:04FORECAST2023176-10923.77412.41618.095162.863036372230.165354421.445354424.455.89535442TF-8.226-23.22683433.850603666770.6582266450830.063272153757365171114126WETL
2023-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2023176-10924.06212.39818.23156.500033957090.110236281.470236284.455.92023628TF-7.938-22.93883431.1776913793167.47932334240.067736882570737171114126WETL
2023-03-24 16:00:01FORECAST2023176-10923.68412.75818.221156.874949081810.173228441.533228444.455.98322844TT-8.316-23.31683431.3363828640367.6658730989280.061924789909367171115127.5WETL
2023-03-24 12:00:03FORECAST2023176-10923.7214.86419.292160.120794507990.15748041.51748044.455.9674804TF-8.28-23.2883432.7039626253669.2849022823270.062461032723668171115127.5WETL
2023-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2023176-10923.64814.50419.076160.607899066390.248031631.588031634.456.03803163TT-8.352-23.35283432.9082243051869.5284803942160.061392134676728171115127.5WETL
2023-03-24 04:00:12FORECAST2023176-10922.8214.01818.419161.017610588510.212598541.572598544.456.02259854TT-9.18-25.1883433.0798365342369.7334804728060.050098987608264171115127.5WETL
2023-03-24 00:00:06FORECAST2023176-10923.50413.15418.329160.461299445870.165354421.615354424.456.06535442TT-8.496-22.49683432.8467760268269.4551561422170.059297112755767171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 20:00:03FORECAST2023176-10923.9913.83818.914154.853793993230.19685051.83685054.456.2868505TT-8.01-23.0183430.4790909004966.6613204606960.066598589690901171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 16:00:03FORECAST2023176-10923.43213.17218.302154.437069324450.173228441.733228444.456.18322844TT-8.568-24.56883430.3017852856266.454546644590.058270766269605171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2023176-10923.46814.4518.959157.556837501560.188976481.688976484.456.13897648TT-8.532-24.53283431.6246207946868.0054102402180.058782187459787171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023176-10923.8115.29619.553156.999451615010.200787511.600787514.456.05078751TT-8.19-22.1983431.3890480206467.727843971960.063817425644448171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:15FORECAST2023176-10924.9816.44820.714159.047362408630.401575021.951575024.456.40157502TT-7.02-20.0283432.2529381495168.7486897060590.083593190113208171115127.5WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:05FORECAST2023176-10924.36815.99820.183160.888179743960.271653691.721653694.396.11165369TT-7.632-24.63283433.0256422815169.6687073691320.072742334827674171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 20:00:04FORECAST2023176-10924.04416.23220.138160.857974778370.244094621.674094624.476.14409462TT-7.956-27.95683433.0129925345469.6535930318290.06745091486734171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 16:00:04FORECAST2023176-10923.46814.0918.779162.454241768590.224409571.924409574.476.39440957TT-8.532-30.53283433.6801764312670.4531842322070.058782187459787171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:04FORECAST2023176-10923.34214.95419.148163.795601712790.204724522.104724524.476.57472452TT-8.658-31.65883434.2387302285971.1263941047910.057007451454683171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:04FORECAST2023176-10923.6315.819.715163.763996184650.35433092.20433094.396.5943309TT-8.37-28.3783434.2255912950171.1105180761150.061127148090131171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:17FORECAST2023176-10922.87414.4518.662164.675922243380.161417412.241417414.446.68141741TT-9.126-31.12683434.6042703145271.5688590249550.050781251808201171115127.5WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023176-10924.33216.14220.237165.5927812780.346456882.116456884.386.49645688TT-7.668-29.66883434.9841145273772.0302293363350.072139209944437171115127.5WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:04FORECAST2023176-10924.90816.2520.579164.393714423530.267716681.917716684.376.28771668TT-7.092-28.09283434.4871766897871.4269608454250.082257041333672171115127.5WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:04FORECAST2023176-10923.93614.3619.148164.703494769040.181102461.961102464.366.32110246TT-8.064-30.06483434.6157062023371.5827256930370.065754596384946171115127.5WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023176-10922.49612.93817.717162.650266537470.023622061.573622064.375.94362206TT-9.504-36.50483433.7619216075170.5514921632670.046157070099988171115127.5WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023176-10922.44211.46216.952161.968811410890.019685051.389685054.365.74968505TF-9.558-36.55883433.4775696397970.2098467278370.045524901046469171114126WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:14FORECAST2023176-10923.5413.94618.743161.444575628590.015748041.325748044.385.70574804TF-8.46-32.4683433.2584856621769.9472323552140.059815556171007171114126WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023176-10925.2515.4420.345164.021284956120.027559071.427559074.035.45755907TF-6.75-29.7583434.3325197839471.2397779931930.088748651559387171114126WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:08FORECAST2023176-10926.11415.96221.038161.31891274980.027559071.487559074.215.69755907TF-5.886-29.88683433.2059263848769.884309041180.1068285047004171114126WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023176-10924.4415.54819.994161.42198136060.043307111.453307114.225.67330711TF-7.56-32.5683433.2490367066269.9359179277560.073960118231576171114126WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023176-10922.76614.34218.554165.704232950240.070866181.790866184.36.09086618TT-9.234-37.23483435.0302274096772.0863501430880.049424027751695171115127.5WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:04FORECAST2023176-10922.76614.34218.554165.704232950240.070866181.790866184.36.09086618TT-9.234-37.23483435.0302274096772.0863501430880.049424027751695171115127.5WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:16FORECAST2023176-10927.3217.13222.226164.294798144030.07874021.44874024.185.6287402TF-4.68-29.6883434.4461144928171.3772366850550.13628100750362171114126WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023176-10922.4614.43218.446168.36878885270.098425251.618425254.095.70842525TF-9.54-29.5483436.1288037087473.430478464220.045734848440857171115127.5WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023176-10922.11813.65817.888168.698391312620.07874021.64874024.075.7187402TF-9.882-32.88283436.2641803008373.597065404070.041876276890571171115127.5WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:04FORECAST2023176-10922.17214.70218.437169.800510188310.094488241.724488244.235.95448824TT-9.828-36.82883436.7160279538874.1546043539810.042467440285583171115127.5WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023176-10922.87414.93618.905166.746596504390.082677211.282677214.275.55267721TF-9.126-37.12683435.460871638772.6116182565890.050781251808201171114126WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023176-10924.24214.59419.418166.180546871470.110236281.190236284.275.46023628TF-7.758-35.75883435.2271541966472.3262864977120.070648115035236171114126WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:14FORECAST2023176-10926.9616.44821.704164.818315163340.019685051.049685054.225.26968505TF-5.04-31.0483434.6633201110271.6404760840020.12696151975166171114126WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:07FORECAST2023176-10924.5315.78220.156170.085593637220.059055151.339055154.155.48905515TF-7.47-37.4783436.8327009485874.2989492609920.075504103606038171114126WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:06FORECAST2023176-10926.00615.7120.858170.606852755090.043307111.373307114.195.56330711TF-5.994-34.99483437.0458126451974.5630106051870.10443370376388171114126WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:06FORECAST2023176-10927.3217.13222.226170.92708606070.07874021.44874024.185.6287402TF-4.68-30.6883437.1765970535174.7253218282880.13628100750362171114126WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023176-10927.517.20422.352171.43600228820.204724521.534724524.235.76472452TF-4.5-29.583437.3842214916974.9834023964730.14111159740425171115127.5WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:07FORECAST2023176-10928.6718.73423.702170.821125719270.208661531.618661534.045.65866153TF-3.33-28.3383437.1333342530274.6716082465170.17530896854978171115127.5WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023176-10927.06813.92820.498172.05998661190.188976481.568976484.085.64897648TF-4.932-36.93283437.6384246895175.3000614929310.12970970081698171115127.5WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023176-10924.3514.41419.382171.59095236260.153543390.953543393.634.58354339TF-7.65-49.6583437.4473837682175.0620131893130.072440293145125171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:07FORECAST2023176-10924.31414.39619.355171.328640425710.149606380.959606383.664.61960638TF-7.686-45.68683437.3404430095174.9289435039980.071839083625764171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:05FORECAST2023176-10927.6818.01422.847172.599956938290.291338741.141338743.654.79133874TF-4.32-39.3283437.8580767236175.5742851875770.14605665613487171114126WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:08FORECAST2023176-10926.00616.08821.047173.807504216320.240157611.190157613.875.06015761TF-5.994-41.99483438.348200492576.1882067053190.10443370376388171114126WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023176-10926.4216.82621.623169.082910439250.015748040.755748043.634.38574804TF-5.58-39.5883436.4219694767673.7914967787590.11382760877416171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:18FORECAST2023176-10928.05817.09622.577169.91970096890.031496080.861496083.564.42149608TF-3.942-36.94283436.7648181423874.2149472924910.15681510469495171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:07FORECAST2023176-10929.04821.84825.448176.14509053830.03937011.09937013.824.9193701TF-2.952-30.95283439.2927275720377.379257270990.18739359278314171114126WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:18FORECAST2023176-10929.0320.19224.611174.502335040560.015748041.055748043.454.50574804TF-2.97-37.9783438.629540386576.5418790152120.18680673869691171114126WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:07FORECAST2023176-10933.18819.38226.285177.177152787710.094488241.454488243.524.97448824TF1.188-25.81283439.7079622272977.9062048055190.34991061016883172114128WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:04FORECAST2023176-10931.9114.43223.171178.087806275670.110236281.200236283.865.06023628TF-0.09-39.0983440.0734470228978.371714780480.29442623225382172114128WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:07FORECAST2023176-10931.9116.95224.431176.866311293220.110236281.110236283.874.98023628TF-0.09-37.0983439.5830143787177.7474262603160.29442623225382172114128WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:11FORECAST2023176-10931.44217.0624.251174.256155874610.125984320.985984323.474.45598432TF-0.558-43.55883438.5299182080976.4165377829470.27517346830762172113126WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:05FORECAST2023176-10923.12623.12623.126178.833132103060.011811030.851811033.464.31181103TF-8.874-41.87483440.3719501851578.7530951419450.054063169388662171113124.5WETL
2023-03-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023176-10922.92822.92822.928177.396581912640.015748040.785748043.614.39574804TF-9.072-44.07283439.7961059902178.0183259411550.051470869405477171113124.5WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:05FORECAST2023176-10928.61628.61628.616172.0592683970800.283.643.92TF-3.384-22.38483437.6381323295575.2996968712890.17362374508585171112123DRYL
2023-03-15 12:00:06FORECAST2023176-10935.97835.97835.978169.817676122090.011811030.041811033.493.53181103FF3.978-13.02283436.7230556590874.1632944209610.48112492183571172111122DRYL
2023-03-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023176-10931.89231.89231.892171.6246260508300.053.73.75TF-0.108-26.10883437.4611068810275.0790988802360.29367438459964172111122DRYL
2023-03-15 04:00:18FORECAST2023176-10923.07223.07223.072178.2811717412500.324.314.63TF-8.928-42.92883440.1509442304678.4706260804260.053346171472044171112123WETL