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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 22, 2023

[ Tuesday, March 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 23, 2023 ]

DAY 173 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/23/2023 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.785
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -22

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 150 in
SWE DAY: 80
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.58 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 64.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -112

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-23 04:00:12OBSERVATION2023173-11243.2300229.5199636.37499150.267087916670.120.744.575.31TF11.23002-21.7699880426.57517967992 64.1002100280310.784521060835317 4113129WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2023173-11138.89424.40431.649152.954707347670.059055150.679055153.984.65905515TF6.894-16.10681428.3861328870265.5236755875320.61864863069265163113127.5WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:01FORECAST2023173-11236.7723.48630.128153.339019750420.137795350.757795354.575.32779535TF4.77-28.2380427.9067752495365.6148054613260.52554571363795173113127.5WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:01FORECAST2023173-11236.8624.9830.92153.047294214840.055118140.675118144.575.24511814TF4.86-28.1480427.7807665042165.4706888306180.52955689517809173113127.5WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:15FORECAST2023173-11236.6824.38630.533153.378393490730.106299270.726299274.575.29629927TF4.68-28.3280427.9237753029165.6342611924480.52153194085301173113127.5WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:04FORECAST2023173-11238.08423.6330.857154.045252920510.074803190.674803194.575.24480319TF6.084-27.91680428.2114412371765.9639397688350.58364433467288173113127.5WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:01FORECAST2023173-11238.28224.00831.145154.021374740020.066929170.656929174.575.22692917TF6.282-28.71880428.2011492158265.9521296674760.59227401543316173113127.5WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2023173-11238.2123.95431.082154.019471688850.059055150.649055154.575.21905515TF6.21-28.7980428.2003289320365.9511884391030.58914089173096173113127.5WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023173-11236.96824.38630.677154.077029161930.066929170.656929174.575.22692917TF4.968-30.03280428.2251365285965.9796568487860.53436632174711173113127.5WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:04FORECAST2023173-11237.25623.52230.389154.052647798180.059055150.649055154.575.21905515TF5.256-29.74480428.2146284656265.9675973410410.54716505483813173113127.5WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:13FORECAST2023173-11237.95824.00830.983154.176882176430.074803190.674803194.575.24480319TF5.958-28.04280428.2681651401366.0290504367260.57813137422224173113127.5WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:04FORECAST2023173-11237.54425.2531.397155.869911982160.059055150.319055154.574.88905515TF5.544-29.45680428.9960659751366.8675790442380.55991497298198173112125WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:05FORECAST2023173-11237.38223.9930.686152.914345057820.035433090.495433094.575.06543309TF5.382-30.61880427.7233090932765.4050296759640.55274992185773173113127.5WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2023173-11237.32823.1830.254152.911638838960.035433090.505433094.575.07543309TF5.328-30.67280427.7221393294165.4036932925690.55035762207476173113127.5WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:05FORECAST2023173-11236.30223.50429.903154.998405991190.114173290.594173294.575.16417329TF4.302-32.69880428.6217618358166.4356898576840.50465497841061173113127.5WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2023173-11236.30223.50429.903154.998405991190.114173290.594173294.575.16417329TF4.302-32.69880428.6217618358166.4356898576840.50465497841061173113127.5WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:15FORECAST2023173-11234.44823.28828.868154.7506195116600.474.575.04TF2.448-33.55280428.5151883607666.3129908689830.4223241714459172112124WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:04FORECAST2023173-11236.33823.84630.092157.978592275190.03937010.47937014.474.9493701TF4.338-24.66280429.8983051686667.9147290720350.50626314306056173112125WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:05FORECAST2023173-11235.99622.29829.147157.662961514140.051181130.481181134.454.93118113TF3.996-27.00480429.7635638475767.7577962270810.4909851626653172112124WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2023173-11234.89822.35228.625158.363651724970.051181130.641181134.455.09118113TF2.898-30.10280430.0625390670568.1062741567720.44213514621265172113126WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023173-11234.01622.6428.328158.8653073344100.684.455.13TF2.016-31.98480430.2762622480668.3559706407390.40348810965074172113126WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:05FORECAST2023173-11233.49421.18227.338158.909048939200.684.455.13TF1.494-32.50680430.2948848269968.3777509112590.3810268166063172113126WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:13FORECAST2023173-11233.63821.50627.572158.6262975321900.574.515.08TF1.638-32.36280430.1744695130968.2369833917370.38718664483639172113126WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:07FORECAST2023173-11232.84621.30827.077161.231398497500.484.535.01TF0.846-37.15480431.2806382728969.5359804536340.35369929414357172112124WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023173-11233.24224.11628.679161.4779094459600.484.575.05TF1.242-34.75880431.3849323003769.6591370343510.37032015245471172112124WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:05FORECAST2023173-11234.44823.28828.868161.3829074283300.474.575.04TF2.448-34.55280431.3447465128569.6116692961780.4223241714459172112124WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023173-11233.1723.9928.58161.1722109707800.544.555.09TF1.17-32.8380431.2555874485869.5064165225910.36727905164944172113126WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:05FORECAST2023173-11232.9923.93628.463160.6716976955200.374.534.9TF0.99-37.0180431.043597063669.2565065209930.35971298812991172112124WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023173-11230.63221.88426.258161.2001610762400.394.554.94TF-1.368-40.36880431.2674176600769.5203771937380.26654306177431172112124WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023173-11228.38222.11825.25163.977268184480.015748040.395748044.094.48574804TF-3.618-47.61880432.438683419270.9101139643740.19069520449612171112123WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:07FORECAST2023173-11230.2923.50426.897164.174167394250.015748040.415748044.14.51574804TF-1.71-45.7180432.5214139040271.0088430078750.25411174707283172112124WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2023173-11229.98422.5526.267164.1743165753400.394.124.51TF-2.016-45.01680432.5214765692671.0089178199170.24325198622508171112123WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:07FORECAST2023173-11230.3824.04427.212165.133659129510.055118140.655118144.074.72511814TF-1.62-44.6280432.9239688115271.4903190947160.25735344634861172113126WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023173-11230.8322.29826.564164.028267452910.031496080.381496084.114.49149608TF-1.17-46.1780432.4601155825170.9356835014850.27387796106463172112124WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:17FORECAST2023173-11229.58822.0125.799164.173301948350.062992160.372992164.054.42299216TF-2.412-46.41280432.5210503630371.0084090002670.22957840229471171112123WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:07FORECAST2023173-11227.57221.72224.647168.280486466730.177165450.637165454.044.67716545TF-4.428-45.42880434.2373566587973.0736736205670.16699806811254171113124.5WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:17FORECAST2023173-11227.12220.37223.747166.800098512240.102362260.372362263.944.31236226TF-4.878-49.87880433.6207963119172.3279915417810.15468950697068171112123WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:06FORECAST2023173-11227.7721.18224.476166.806069134230.165354420.365354424.014.37535442TF-4.23-42.2380433.6232876495472.3309960978820.17260811075277171112123WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:04FORECAST2023173-11229.13821.27225.205168.295920129370.208661530.648661534.074.71866153TF-2.862-44.86280434.2437723546673.0814552288770.21457599888945171113124.5WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:07FORECAST2023173-11230.05622.35226.204168.454805500980.208661530.678661534.054.72866153TF-1.944-45.94480434.3098055838773.1615738267990.24578447684793171113124.5WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:10FORECAST2023173-11229.94821.7425.844166.204442133870.047244120.367244123.964.32724412TF-2.052-52.05280433.3720591467772.0283613268960.24199104201709171112123WETL
2023-03-16 00:00:04FORECAST2023173-11228.68822.96425.826170.9464988565900.473.854.32TF-3.312-47.31280435.3418823481974.4201705930610.20015855639089171112123WETL
2023-03-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023173-11228.68821.90225.295170.068693698400.583.894.47TF-3.312-50.31280434.9790343313673.9763161549270.20015855639089171113124.5WETL
2023-03-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023173-11231.04623.16227.104170.0988373960600.613.894.5TF-0.954-45.95480434.9915078962873.9915497703140.28199170613811172113126WETL
2023-03-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023173-11231.0123.77427.392169.806979431370.070866180.410866183.944.35086618TF-0.99-45.9980434.8706959237173.8440793180230.28063141994116172112124WETL
2023-03-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023173-11229.28219.72424.503171.303988305810.098425250.638425253.924.55842525TF-2.718-52.71880435.4894218957274.6010748357260.21931380655397171113124.5WETL
2023-03-15 04:00:17FORECAST2023173-11227.15818.28422.721175.224894887190.535433361.245433363.925.16543336TF-4.842-52.84280437.0988579533776.5906014401880.15565160754537171114126WETL
2023-03-15 00:00:07FORECAST2023173-11229.67823.03626.357175.789368867920.641732631.271732634.095.36173263TF-2.322-52.32280437.3292436288976.8778317250060.23264775578726171114126WETL
2023-03-14 20:00:07FORECAST2023173-11229.64222.125.871176.205461849590.645669641.255669644.175.42566964TF-2.358-58.35880437.4988573892977.0896882249480.23141728975919171114126WETL
2023-03-14 16:00:07FORECAST2023173-11230.97421.66826.321169.699084787660.03937010.32937014.114.4393701TF-1.026-57.02680434.8260112297873.7895761475630.2792743126639172112124WETL
2023-03-14 12:00:06FORECAST2023173-11231.74822.53227.14171.402324167920.141732360.6217323644.62173236TF-0.252-63.25280435.5299826219374.6508512662140.30913077918123172113126WETL
2023-03-14 08:00:07FORECAST2023173-11230.6522.71226.681170.822519569410.122047310.532047313.974.50204731TF-1.35-66.3580435.290683534774.3574513064880.26720574853258172113126WETL
2023-03-14 04:00:18FORECAST2023173-11228.99421.43425.214169.698660432610.133858340.423858343.834.25385834TF-3.006-64.00680434.8258354584673.789361798790.20989811814548171112123WETL
2023-03-14 00:00:07FORECAST2023173-11228.05821.21824.638176.514913680250.043307110.143307114.24.34330711TF-3.942-61.94280437.6248843788677.2473186904630.18097948513477171112123WETL
2023-03-13 20:00:07FORECAST2023173-11229.321.30825.304168.75322540840.007874020.227874024.214.43787402TF-2.7-58.780434.433757770473.3120978500490.2199102228078171112123WETL
2023-03-13 16:00:05FORECAST2023173-11233.42224.51228.967168.921214134690.055118140.275118144.124.39511814TF1.422-58.57880434.5034925257273.3968575032070.37795805917556172112124WETL
2023-03-13 12:00:06FORECAST2023173-11234.44824.0829.264172.423973857190.007874020.177874024.14.27787402TF2.448-53.55280435.9507850023775.1683667562720.4223241714459172112124WETL
2023-03-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023173-11234.44824.04429.246172.572644195790.007874020.167874024.24.36787402TF2.448-53.55280436.011929150375.2437315143740.4223241714459172112124WETL
2023-03-13 04:00:13FORECAST2023173-11233.42220.87627.149171.414275968080.11811030.66811034.45.0681103TF1.422-75.57880435.5349117066774.6569015490210.37795805917556172113126WETL
2023-03-13 00:00:08FORECAST2023173-11223.34223.34223.342178.57918004700.474.665.13TF-8.658-75.65880438.4630454679678.3003711405790.07486572295781171112123WETL
2023-03-12 20:00:05FORECAST2023173-11222.04622.04622.046171.8751738209400.474.645.11TF-9.954-68.95480435.7248781402374.8902891684610.056367188769322171112123WETL
2023-03-12 16:00:04FORECAST2023173-11231.13631.13631.136171.5912201525600.015.435.44TF-0.864-36.86480435.6078683883474.7464856448090.28540623288099172111122WETL
2023-03-12 12:00:08FORECAST2023173-11228.81428.81428.814173.3422385599500.264.95.16TF-3.186-44.18680436.3280739477575.6340850846550.20413570528701171112123WETL
2023-03-12 08:00:07FORECAST2023173-11228.81428.81428.814174.0964851926500.214.95.11TF-3.186-55.18680436.6373149394776.0170218349170.20413570528701171112123WETL
2023-03-12 04:00:12FORECAST2023173-11224.83624.83624.836177.1659284748100.665.115.77TF-7.164-56.16480437.8896927154877.5791339794870.10153882759406171113124.5WETL