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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 4, 2023

[ Friday, February 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 5, 2023 ]

DAY 127 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/05/2023 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.359
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.58 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 107 in
SWE DAY: 35
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -157

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-05 07:00:14OBSERVATION2023127-15731.3300427.9300229.63003107.0273450.579999999999930.949999999999934.655.5999999999999TF-0.66996-7.6699635371.02703490217 39.7100384688010.3593229451191316 2113126WETL
2023-02-05 03:00:12OBSERVATION2023127-15731.3300427.9300229.63003107.0273450.579999999999930.949999999999934.655.5999999999999TF-0.66996-7.6699635371.02703490217 39.7100384688010.3593229451191316 2113126WETL
2023-02-04 11:00:01FORECAST2023127-15730.18225.84428.013105.63750290370.456693160.826693164.655.47669316TF-1.818-8.81835370.2247128597839.1096141797450.31471059910524162113126WETL
2023-02-04 07:00:12FORECAST2023127-15729.76825.95227.86106.018691338420.555118410.925118414.655.57511841TF-2.232-9.23235370.445045630739.2740989505670.29922311935701162113126WETL
2023-02-04 03:00:15FORECAST2023127-15729.3926.18627.788106.396061213040.665354691.035354694.655.68535469TF-2.61-9.6135370.662961180839.4370791071970.28539197899483162114128WETL
2023-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2023127-15729.73225.71827.725106.345867492430.625984591.325984594.655.97598459TF-2.268-18.26835370.6339884179439.4153930204840.29789285611482162114128WETL
2023-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2023127-15729.58825.8827.734106.13538823010.566929441.266929444.655.91692944TF-2.412-18.41235370.5124555865939.3244833177710.29259894588149162114128WETL
2023-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2023127-15729.87625.98827.932106.326279068150.62992161.32992164.655.9799216TF-2.124-18.12435370.6226806076739.4069305672760.30322997025066162114128WETL
2023-02-03 11:00:05FORECAST2023127-15730.14625.53827.842108.997946457590.637795621.337795624.655.98779562TF-1.854-17.85435372.1597712161440.5646508166870.31335031868262162114128WETL
2023-02-03 07:00:15FORECAST2023127-15730.32626.49228.409108.379063515790.610236551.240236554.655.89023655TF-1.674-17.67435371.8046369471140.2958383631580.32017673690637162114128WETL
2023-02-03 03:00:15FORECAST2023127-15729.60626.18627.896108.771972936550.582677481.332677484.655.98267748TF-2.394-19.39435372.0301652861440.4664550700840.29325829152382162114128WETL
2023-02-02 23:00:04FORECAST2023127-15729.7525.8827.815109.244702707340.539370371.049370374.655.69937037TF-2.25-25.2535372.301212029940.6719352257890.29855765106457162114128WETL
2023-02-02 19:00:06FORECAST2023127-15729.98426.2428.112108.948197347530.503937280.993937284.655.64393728TF-2.016-25.01635372.1312442600740.5430282388270.30726061206882162114128WETL
2023-02-02 15:00:06FORECAST2023127-15729.9326.34828.139108.899937079130.500000270.990000274.655.64000027TF-2.07-25.0735372.1035675854940.522055096980.30524234171517162114128WETL
2023-02-02 11:00:06FORECAST2023127-15729.96626.74428.355109.234805579120.488189241.098189244.655.74818924TF-2.034-24.03435372.2955406970840.6676310060180.30658720289748162114128WETL
2023-02-02 07:00:14FORECAST2023127-15730.61426.99628.805109.394003622870.456693161.046693164.655.69669316TF-1.386-22.38635372.3867483583440.736877299020.33122582402627162114128WETL
2023-02-02 03:00:13FORECAST2023127-15730.41626.63628.526109.005308692250.452756150.952756154.655.60275615TF-1.584-22.58435372.1639925361140.5678508905380.32361308250139162113126WETL
2023-02-01 23:00:05FORECAST2023127-15730.88426.4228.652110.791683113240.413386050.953386054.655.60338605TF-1.116-23.11635373.185924864841.345896729940.34171967069073162113126WETL
2023-02-01 19:00:05FORECAST2023127-15730.90226.72628.814110.373648193290.358267910.848267914.655.49826791TF-1.098-24.09835372.9471947851541.1635424718910.34242373883772162113126WETL
2023-02-01 15:00:05FORECAST2023127-15731.38826.7829.084110.759799122430.452756150.952756154.655.60275615TF-0.612-23.61235373.1677255828541.3319823245310.36163341210632162113126WETL
2023-02-01 11:00:07FORECAST2023127-15730.61426.2428.427111.012172720160.464567180.994567184.655.64456718TF-1.386-25.38635373.3117393106941.4421472828230.33122582402627162114128WETL
2023-02-01 07:00:15FORECAST2023127-15729.15626.34827.752111.169252608610.492126251.052126254.655.70212625TF-2.844-26.84435373.4013283165541.5107465920140.27698512060685162114128WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:14FORECAST2023127-15728.61625.93427.275111.187712257380.500000271.050000274.655.70000027TF-3.384-28.38435373.4118542530241.518809804180.25805930001034162114128WETL
2023-01-31 23:00:05FORECAST2023127-15729.49824.00826.753112.257445571190.291338740.961338744.645.60133874TF-2.502-26.50235374.0209881505941.9866407197960.28931258465083162113126WETL
2023-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2023127-15728.68823.52226.105112.458823022410.307086780.987086784.645.62708678TF-3.312-28.31235374.1354726981142.0748349105640.2605434972996162113126WETL
2023-01-31 15:00:05FORECAST2023127-15729.91224.99827.455114.967097122090.696850771.506850774.646.14685077TT-2.088-29.08835375.5565484743143.1766461832830.304570893365221621151210WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:05FORECAST2023127-15729.1224.83626.978114.521466235670.657480671.407480674.646.04748067TT-2.88-30.8835375.3047348891342.9804485246940.27570258624179162114128WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:16FORECAST2023127-15729.55224.72827.14115.032355655160.657480671.457480674.656.10748067TT-2.448-29.44835375.5934003310243.2053936086070.29128232293604162114128WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:14FORECAST2023127-15729.67825.5227.599113.399456354920.374015951.114015954.625.73401595TF-2.322-27.32235374.6694546943542.4873124751340.29590252882537162114128WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:06FORECAST2023127-15728.90424.81826.861116.850640882350.409449041.149449044.635.77944904TF-3.096-32.09635376.6177437610744.0080247261460.26806917100194162114128WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:04FORECAST2023127-15728.92224.74626.834116.862783377430.405512031.135512034.645.77551203TF-3.078-32.07835376.6245684293544.0133953549760.26870120790094162114128WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:05FORECAST2023127-15729.10224.22426.663115.98161324920.255905651.005905654.625.62590565TF-2.898-32.89835376.1287612824143.6240205229550.2750624142475162114128WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:07FORECAST2023127-15728.6725.30426.987115.584696113520.405512030.965512034.625.58551203TF-3.33-35.3335375.9050655354243.4488727674440.25992129726927162113126WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:15FORECAST2023127-15729.13826.02427.581115.228078603590.401575020.951575024.625.57157502TF-2.862-32.86235375.7038895426243.2916373158910.27634348886757162113126WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:19FORECAST2023127-15729.17425.80827.491115.204013696940.35433090.96433094.625.5843309TF-2.826-29.82635375.6903074207443.2810313219050.27762747993457162113126WETL
2023-01-29 23:00:04FORECAST2023127-15730.99226.13228.562117.222515201880.311023791.421023794.596.01102379TF-1.008-33.00835376.8266596173844.1725688354720.3459522516948162114128WETL
2023-01-29 19:00:04FORECAST2023127-15731.04625.73628.391117.214623347140.311023791.421023794.596.01102379TF-0.954-32.95435376.8222280890944.169075534290.34807581878492162114128WETL
2023-01-29 15:00:09FORECAST2023127-15730.75826.20428.481117.119572905290.366141931.426141934.596.01614193TT-1.242-30.24235376.7688472541844.1270064744270.33680670949068162114128WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:07FORECAST2023127-15729.60625.71827.662116.167645448070.346456881.176456884.595.76645688TF-2.394-32.39435376.2335282697343.7061631177120.29325829152382162114128WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:16FORECAST2023127-15729.5725.53827.554115.947901204270.346456881.176456884.595.76645688TF-2.43-31.4335376.1097705099643.6091385130480.29194028912139162114128WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:20FORECAST2023127-15729.69625.55627.626115.631236497930.35433091.13433094.595.7243309TF-2.304-32.30435375.9313065775443.4694018178440.29656529325161162114128WETL
2023-01-28 23:00:08FORECAST2023127-15733.33222.47827.905106.526206466920.102362260.612362264.214.82236226TF1.332-34.66835370.7380662745639.4933197931110.44154441682164162113126WETL
2023-01-28 19:00:06FORECAST2023127-15733.36822.53227.95106.543723486560.098425250.598425254.224.81842525TF1.368-35.63235370.7481732178539.5008908504690.44305796810034162113126WETL
2023-01-28 15:00:10FORECAST2023127-15733.09821.63227.365111.518225613480.200787511.220787514.625.84078751TF1.098-40.90235373.6002338486141.663235167580.4317280962464162114128WETL
2023-01-28 11:00:11FORECAST2023127-15731.2823.48627.383107.579654685110.23622060.57622064.174.7462206TF-0.72-42.7235371.3450842648139.949175934220.35733231784159162113126WETL
2023-01-28 07:00:18FORECAST2023127-15731.38823.46827.428107.546413668350.23622060.57622064.144.7162206TF-0.612-42.61235371.3259549312539.9347747548310.36163341210632162113126WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:14FORECAST2023127-15730.72225.44828.085108.84968686510.35433090.79433094.154.9443309TF-1.278-46.27835372.074746095840.5002196029390.33540805745361162113126WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:08FORECAST2023127-15729.78622.80226.294106.677165666810.051181130.551181133.924.47118113TF-2.214-51.21435370.8251517243839.558576143920.29988925923166162113126WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:06FORECAST2023127-15729.91222.78426.348106.853519670050.051181130.551181133.964.51118113TF-2.088-51.08835370.9268446652239.6348388925860.30457089336522162113126WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:07FORECAST2023127-15729.326.11427.707104.919417442320.267716680.627716683.534.15771668TF-2.7-51.735369.8090685238838.8001520344130.28214423811336162113126WETL
2023-01-27 11:00:08FORECAST2023127-15728.1324.29626.213107.001307572190.125984320.595984323.554.14598432TF-3.87-54.8735371.0120301473339.6987723507770.24161735640068161113124.5WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:20FORECAST2023127-15728.27424.54826.411106.735589421770.153543390.593543393.634.22354339TF-3.726-50.72635370.8588463000939.5838375521190.2464290509301161113124.5WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:21FORECAST2023127-15727.80623.25225.529109.312343425290.173228440.943228443.74.64322844TF-4.194-51.19435372.3399682470340.7013544799820.23097977869175161113124.5WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:09FORECAST2023127-15728.90425.17827.041114.9118487024601.173.955.12TF-3.096-61.09635375.5253446091843.1523115836690.26806917100194162114128WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:07FORECAST2023127-15728.8525.10626.978115.2193242338501.174.045.21TF-3.15-61.1535375.6989487129543.2877789860740.26617755574293162114128WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:06FORECAST2023127-15732.23424.74628.49106.742165428560.011811030.381811033.523.90181103TF0.234-53.76635370.8626385498139.5866811153540.39589210449351162112124DRYL
2023-01-26 07:00:22FORECAST2023127-15732.23424.74628.49107.105669399560.011811030.381811033.53.88181103TF0.234-51.76635371.0721654222739.7439326730970.39589210449351162112124DRYL
2023-01-26 03:00:15FORECAST2023127-15729.76822.56826.168117.927637844070.818898081.598898083.515.10889808TF-2.232-65.23235377.2222501554644.4849289030590.299223119357011621151210WETL
2023-01-25 23:00:09FORECAST2023127-15720.2120.2120.21108.5829060169400.483.313.79TF-11.79-80.7935371.9216697715740.384335714470.061089868870876161112123DRYL
2023-01-25 19:00:09FORECAST2023127-15720.13820.13820.138108.4913803272700.483.293.77TF-11.862-81.86235371.8691292954240.344595138360.060166186801595161112123DRYL
2023-01-25 15:00:06FORECAST2023127-15722.0122.0122.01108.885929007900.513.343.85TF-9.99-84.9935372.0955334923940.5159678440080.087947009125099161113124.5DRYL
2023-01-25 11:00:12FORECAST2023127-15725.28625.28625.286105.9513974975600.083.43.48FF-6.714-80.71435370.4061642614139.2450507452080.15765636011321161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-25 07:00:17FORECAST2023127-15725.28625.28625.286106.0956399135100.083.43.48FF-6.714-78.71435370.4894972165239.3073202884210.15765636011321161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-25 03:00:21FORECAST2023127-15720.42620.42620.426118.3909415608100.934.024.95TF-11.574-86.57435377.4817891010444.6904244337320.063927265396765161113124.5WETL