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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 3, 2023

[ Thursday, February 2, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 4, 2023 ]

DAY 126 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/28/2023 07:00:18 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.276
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -46

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.30 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.34 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.55 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 34
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 369.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.19 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -158

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-28 07:00:18FORECAST2023126-15828.50823.79226.15106.039085700590.303149770.343149774.554.89314977TF-3.492-46.49234369.5908995984739.1910810766810.27583556305091162112124WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:14FORECAST2023126-15828.65225.4327.041106.597515387680.440945120.440945124.565.00094512TF-3.348-49.34834369.9145062724339.43196727450.28096701486013162112124WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:08FORECAST2023126-15828.8526.52827.689106.28626962750.496063260.716063264.114.82606326TF-3.15-53.1534369.7341978326339.2976686413470.28809712304102162113126WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:06FORECAST2023126-15828.8526.47427.662106.462172564190.496063260.716063264.154.86606326TF-3.15-53.1534369.8361180503139.3735566203420.28809712304102162113126WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:07FORECAST2023126-15829.28226.74428.013103.050027916650.358267910.358267913.944.29826791TF-2.718-52.71834367.850932965137.9070489112180.3039428308827162112124WETL
2023-01-27 11:00:08FORECAST2023126-15827.93223.41425.673106.033361773090.208661530.468661533.964.42866153TF-4.068-55.06834369.587580239539.1886136023750.2557814077856162112124WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:19FORECAST2023126-15829.40823.59426.501105.586422146380.192913490.442913494.044.48291349TF-2.592-50.59234369.3282467223338.9960481690070.30863658992294162112124WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:21FORECAST2023126-15829.19223.50426.348108.015888754580.523622330.773622334.114.88362233TF-2.808-50.80834370.7343846336940.0452040480920.30060974600006162113126WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:08FORECAST2023126-15829.325.9727.635114.911848702460.492126251.632126253.95.53212625TF-2.7-61.734374.6787133380643.0550236191350.304611418660891621151210WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:07FORECAST2023126-15829.51625.91627.716115.219324233850.492126251.632126253.995.62212625TF-2.484-62.48434374.8529783924443.1903068574220.312684866883641621151210WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:06FORECAST2023126-15830.43426.11428.274106.645817078760.122047310.372047313.934.30204731TF-1.566-57.56634369.9424752523139.452817545420.34796926228316162112124WETL
2023-01-26 07:00:21FORECAST2023126-15830.50626.11428.31107.009321049760.122047310.372047313.914.28204731TF-1.494-56.49434370.1528513195339.6098053043360.35079827198961162112124WETL
2023-01-26 03:00:15FORECAST2023126-15828.83221.75825.295110.106807172690.161417410.891417413.814.70141741TF-3.168-67.16834371.9376478938740.9528668769140.28744542076922162113126WETL
2023-01-25 23:00:09FORECAST2023126-15828.20220.13824.17108.582906016940.027559070.547559073.654.19755907TF-3.798-72.79834371.0613184845540.2909162715290.26508631353971162113126WETL
2023-01-25 19:00:09FORECAST2023126-15828.3120.2124.26108.491380327270.027559070.547559073.634.17755907TF-3.69-73.6934371.0085779747640.251232737740.26885577613374162113126WETL
2023-01-25 15:00:06FORECAST2023126-15829.06621.88425.475108.88592900790.125984320.505984323.754.25598432TF-2.934-78.93434371.2358441443940.4223597706930.29597133991221162113126WETL
2023-01-25 11:00:11FORECAST2023126-15830.16421.81225.988105.951397497560.019685050.079685053.813.88968505TF-1.836-77.83634369.5400430976339.1532839975030.33743670572935162111122DRYL
2023-01-25 07:00:17FORECAST2023126-15830.1121.81225.961106.095639913510.019685050.079685053.813.88968505TF-1.89-75.8934369.6236933203939.2154622700220.33534506174954162111122DRYL
2023-01-25 03:00:21FORECAST2023126-15830.48821.30825.898118.390941560810.500000271.440000273.925.36000027TF-1.512-78.51234376.6426064624244.5910728110060.35009023667097162114128WETL
2023-01-24 23:00:09FORECAST2023126-15824.2624.2624.26105.37568244511003.463.46FF-7.74-83.7434369.2058643476838.9053199183740.14769931913794161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-24 19:00:12FORECAST2023126-15824.2624.2624.26105.07483181336003.43.4FF-7.74-83.7434369.031038509738.7758743053170.14769931913794161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-24 15:00:09FORECAST2023126-15829.69629.69629.696107.399246277730.035433090.195433093.463.65543309TF-2.304-72.30434370.3783027279539.7783505506070.31948224753821162112124DRYL
2023-01-24 11:00:09FORECAST2023126-15819.99419.99419.994104.75366291536003.413.41FF-12.006-98.00634368.8442581311738.6377870845380.066813423508899161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-24 07:00:29FORECAST2023126-15819.90419.90419.904104.65716728412003.43.4FF-12.096-99.09634368.7881099393938.5963189143220.065581497677977161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-24 03:00:20FORECAST2023126-15810.0410.0410.04110.7501184765700.293.874.16TF-21.96-103.9634372.306571303241.2329968814360.0052015894962009161112123WETL