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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 31, 2023

[ Monday, January 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 1, 2023 ]

DAY 123 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/01/2023 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.224
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -38

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 107 in
SWE DAY: 31
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 367.42 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.24 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -161

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-02-01 07:00:12OBSERVATION2023123-16126.3199215.7600421.03998106.799327083330.0299999999999730.0599999999999736.046.1TF-5.68008-37.6800831367.41877604534 39.2400780394240.2235271174571716 1111121.5WETL
2023-02-01 03:00:10OBSERVATION2023123-16126.3199215.7600421.03998106.799327083330.0299999999999730.0599999999999736.046.1TF-5.68008-37.6800831367.41877604534 39.2400780394240.2235271174571716 1111121.5WETL
2023-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2023123-16127.37417.3322.352108.09192542020.015748040.045748046.046.08574804TF-4.626-36.62631368.1742510817539.7966636895670.25805025938058162111122WETL
2023-01-31 07:00:14FORECAST2023123-16127.517.90622.703108.442915394230.027559070.057559076.046.09755907TF-4.5-36.531368.3789636600739.9480887892010.26235420006104162111122WETL
2023-01-31 03:00:12FORECAST2023123-16127.53617.94222.739108.3183529166700.036.046.07TF-4.464-36.46431368.3063343104239.894335501280.26359060591503162111122WETL
2023-01-30 23:00:01FORECAST2023123-16127.75216.82622.289111.04483204630.007874020.037874026.046.07787402TF-4.248-38.24831369.8908365731341.0744658227290.27107087125145162111122WETL
2023-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2023123-16127.7717.31222.541111.089404943850.015748040.045748046.046.08574804TF-4.23-38.2331369.9166492057841.0938204390950.27169896668888162111122WETL
2023-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2023123-16127.37417.18622.2811100.036.046.07TF-4.626-38.62631369.8648709166441.0550006717470.25805025938058162111122WETL
2023-01-30 11:00:06FORECAST2023123-16127.01417.1522.08211100.036.046.07TF-4.986-38.98631369.8648709166441.0550006717470.24595782979448161111121.5WETL
2023-01-30 07:00:13FORECAST2023123-16127.4117.65422.532110.7937416666700.036.046.07TF-4.59-38.5931369.745372887140.9654733260980.25927621461924162111122WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:16FORECAST2023123-16126.99617.58222.289110.7937416666700.036.046.07TF-5.004-39.00431369.745372887140.9654733260980.24536128113704161111121.5WETL
2023-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2023123-16127.01418.01422.514110006.046.04TF-4.986-39.98631369.2849254698540.6213418016830.24595782979448161111121.5WETL
2023-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2023123-16126.92418.01422.469110006.046.04TF-5.076-40.07631369.2849254698540.6213418016830.24298287087129161111121.5WETL
2023-01-29 15:00:07FORECAST2023123-16126.18618.44622.316110006.046.04TF-5.814-40.81431369.2849254698540.6213418016830.21933691872657161111121.5WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:06FORECAST2023123-16127.03217.79822.415110006.046.04TF-4.968-39.96831369.2849254698540.6213418016830.24655515465193161111121.5WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:14FORECAST2023123-16127.15817.8722.514109.77996416667006.046.04TF-4.842-39.84231369.1571188467640.5260552788670.25075806640653162111122WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:18FORECAST2023123-16126.92418.01422.469109.77996416667006.046.04TF-5.076-40.07631369.1571188467640.5260552788670.24298287087129161111121.5WETL
2023-01-28 23:00:07FORECAST2023123-16126.04218.06822.055103005.625.62TF-5.958-42.95831365.1837984652937.6139312419240.21488201485457161111121.5WETL
2023-01-28 19:00:05FORECAST2023123-16125.4317.90621.668103005.625.62TF-6.57-43.5731365.1837984652937.6139312419240.19654321340079161111121.5WETL
2023-01-28 15:00:08FORECAST2023123-16125.12417.27621.2103005.625.62TF-6.876-46.87631365.1837984652937.6139312419240.18773999949561161111121.5WETL
2023-01-28 11:00:09FORECAST2023123-16125.59218.08621.839104.00919639848005.625.62TF-6.408-46.40831365.7795696865838.0444391020820.20130311148946161111121.5WETL
2023-01-28 07:00:16FORECAST2023123-16126.18617.1521.668103.98548787914005.595.59TF-5.814-46.81431365.7655910571538.034313435480.21933691872657161111121.5WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:13FORECAST2023123-16123.6315.4419.535104.01049462854005.65.6TF-8.37-47.3731365.7803351034538.0449935795010.14833379806838161111121.5WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:06FORECAST2023123-16122.11816.719.409101.728494493690.141732360.141732365.015.15173236TF-9.882-52.88231364.4309976614437.0730167389310.11450255112493161112123WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:05FORECAST2023123-16122.24414.82818.536101.904083295290.141732360.141732365.055.19173236TF-9.756-52.75631364.5351005825237.1476152538160.11709284585008161112123WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:06FORECAST2023123-16122.02815.24218.635100.808695277750.055118140.055118144.924.97511814TF-9.972-51.97231363.8849087012936.6827628774420.11267740723944161111121.5WETL
2023-01-27 11:00:07FORECAST2023123-16122.76615.09818.932103.372245461760055TF-9.234-52.23431365.4037284533637.7726039103250.12826404178911161111121.5WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:18FORECAST2023123-16123.3615.54819.454103.19576966493005.085.08TF-8.64-49.6431365.2994889819737.6973619237010.14184875900084161111121.5WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:21FORECAST2023123-16123.37815.5319.454103.44735507656005.155.15TF-8.622-51.62231365.4480794943337.8046372414950.14227504436809161111121.5WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:08FORECAST2023123-16123.93614.64819.292104.387105151220.066929170.066929174.874.93692917TF-8.064-57.06431366.0022724540538.2059177002450.15591904691227161111121.5WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:06FORECAST2023123-16123.91814.6319.274104.701338376810.066929170.066929174.965.02692917TF-8.082-58.08231366.1872883349738.3402991852450.1554659192356161111121.5WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023123-16126.79815.76421.281104.29982120436004.974.97TF-5.202-55.20231365.950854744338.1686087194120.23885079138872161111121.5WETL
2023-01-26 07:00:21FORECAST2023123-16126.7815.78221.281104.66573371346004.954.95TF-5.22-54.2231366.1663322525438.3250678263780.23826364274971161111121.5WETL
2023-01-26 03:00:14FORECAST2023123-16125.48415.33220.408104.29144751954004.854.85TF-6.516-59.51631365.9459213284938.1650298492190.19812223207193161111121.5WETL
2023-01-25 23:00:08FORECAST2023123-16122.04611.04816.547104.5844012884004.694.69TF-9.954-67.95431366.1184547559838.2902793912870.11304076917771161111121.5WETL
2023-01-25 19:00:08FORECAST2023123-16122.24411.06616.655104.49577475095004.674.67TF-9.756-68.75631366.0662722134238.2523787251330.11709284585008161111121.5WETL
2023-01-25 15:00:06FORECAST2023123-16121.07410.29215.683105.26717528249004.794.79TF-10.926-72.92631366.5200726082238.58253272780.094593747419361161111121.5WETL
2023-01-25 11:00:11FORECAST2023123-16124.09812.6518.374105.34270088909004.854.85TF-7.902-69.90231366.5644551288238.6148897532070.16003623253805161111121.5WETL
2023-01-25 07:00:16FORECAST2023123-16124.36812.75818.563105.46869637105004.854.85TF-7.632-68.63231366.6384772566138.6688822357220.167054330681161111121.5WETL
2023-01-25 03:00:19FORECAST2023123-16123.32411.04817.186106.172401720090.106299270.106299274.854.95629927TF-8.676-68.67631367.0514675800938.970735867860.14099877792567161112123WETL
2023-01-24 23:00:08FORECAST2023123-16120.28211.17415.728105.3756824451100.024.484.5TF-11.718-67.71831366.5838340249338.6290216837230.081279608580672161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 19:00:11FORECAST2023123-16120.40811.55215.98105.0748318133600.024.424.44TF-11.592-67.59231366.4070037689238.5001542962580.083297954527356161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 15:00:08FORECAST2023123-16120.10210.88615.494105.7003917037700.124.384.5TF-11.898-66.89831366.7745360442338.7682121268440.078460345723356161112123WETL
2023-01-24 11:00:09FORECAST2023123-16116.527.05211.786104.75366291536004.454.45TF-15.48-75.4831366.2180819108438.3626855059970.036425591537847161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 07:00:29FORECAST2023123-16116.2327.1611.696104.65716728412004.444.44TF-15.768-75.76831366.1612899672638.3214033770740.034060320949279161111121.5WETL
2023-01-24 03:00:19FORECAST2023123-16121.99210.25616.124107.942054591560.200787510.200787514.714.91078751TF-10.008-70.00831368.0867842963239.7320437649460.11195317943252161112123WETL
2023-01-23 23:00:09FORECAST2023123-16121.97413.33417.654109.583893277480.181102460.181102464.564.74110246TF-10.026-62.02631369.0431719321340.4411875677940.1115923123489161112123WETL
2023-01-23 19:00:08FORECAST2023123-16121.88413.85617.87109.84313980210.181102460.181102464.64.78110246TF-10.116-64.11631369.1938213831640.5534085362630.10980042042433161112123WETL
2023-01-23 15:00:08FORECAST2023123-16115.1886.96211.075112.868150124480.114173290.424173294.665.08417329TF-16.812-73.81231370.944357545641.8678034352850.026518727030058161112123WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:10FORECAST2023123-16114.3968.70811.552117.949459158150.503937280.803937284.595.39393728TF-17.604-74.60431373.8547443162244.0959648958060.021774049077959161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:29FORECAST2023123-16114.4328.70811.57117.727978293470.503937280.803937284.595.39393728TF-17.568-73.56831373.7286696453143.9983207076510.021973034349626161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:15FORECAST2023123-16114.98.29411.597112.469822860750.303149770.303149774.715.01314977TF-17.1-74.131370.7146186909941.6942074960680.024702248422924161112123WETL
2023-01-22 23:00:05FORECAST2023123-16113.9288.40211.165100.992990667110.082677210.082677213.843.92267721TF-18.072-66.07231363.9944279377636.7608858635970.019322473014077161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 19:00:06FORECAST2023123-16112.565.3068.93399.966188167428003.883.88TF-19.44-71.4431363.3835876661236.3260721015860.01345586408858161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 15:00:11FORECAST2023123-16117.2049.0513.12799.890773423827003.873.87TF-14.796-66.79631363.3386609357536.2941798556490.042582555051684161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 11:00:09FORECAST2023123-16122.29814.52218.41100.321653736580.043307110.043307113.813.85330711TF-9.702-62.70231363.5952328817136.4764750534290.11821554792481161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 07:00:11FORECAST2023123-16122.33414.46818.401100.311022799360.03937010.05937013.813.8693701TF-9.666-63.66631363.5889059629536.4719750356440.11896821881491161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-22 03:00:24FORECAST2023123-16124.58416.35820.471106.525101627660.181102460.681102463.894.57110246TF-7.416-56.41631367.2581824230839.1222152062090.1728091750978161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 23:00:11FORECAST2023123-16116.19616.19616.196103.063077818210.011811030.521811033.534.05181103TF-15.804-66.80431365.2210807234137.6408086634470.033773721977429161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 19:00:07FORECAST2023123-16115.6215.6215.62102.638679885260.007874020.467874023.564.02787402TF-16.38-68.3831364.9701244168937.460051767710.029451131122338161112123WETL
2023-01-21 15:00:08FORECAST2023123-16114.95414.95414.954102.049475217720.007874020.197874023.874.06787402TF-17.046-68.04631364.6212652746637.2094087744990.025034676814176161112123WETL
2023-01-21 11:00:07FORECAST2023123-16119.29219.29219.292108.8266460806700.194.274.46TF-12.708-60.70831368.6025633064340.1137807013760.066681111686587161112123WETL
2023-01-21 07:00:20FORECAST2023123-16119.27419.27419.274108.775731123100.194.224.41TF-12.726-61.72631368.5729077289740.0917875103840.066435770217389161112123WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:18FORECAST2023123-16119.34619.34619.346108.902728126420.055118140.525118143.584.10511814TF-12.654-54.65431368.6468703870640.1466499004180.067421329583927161113124.5WETL