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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 30, 2023

[ Sunday, January 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 31, 2023 ]

DAY 122 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/28/2023 07:00:16 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.41°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 16.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.144
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -33

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 364.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.94 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -162

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-28 07:00:16FORECAST2023122-16223.4149.69816.556103.9854878791400.195.916.1TF-8.586-32.58630364.8818021677737.9424122166360.1436970511161161112123WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:12FORECAST2023122-16223.8649.4116.637104.0104946285400.25.916.11TF-8.136-31.13630364.8966023480337.9530760984910.155414989553161112123WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:05FORECAST2023122-16223.0549.57216.313100.870979193200.45.125.52TF-8.946-34.94630363.0311190884136.6193044600510.13476187826168161112123WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:05FORECAST2023122-16222.9289.53616.232101.0441743543900.445.125.56TF-9.072-35.07230363.1344188755236.6926175349380.13172634187164161112123WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:06FORECAST2023122-16222.918.99615.953100.4799630341200.315.125.43TF-9.09-34.0930362.7977358913636.4539030912270.13129656456737161112123WETL
2023-01-27 11:00:07FORECAST2023122-16223.4149.10416.259103.3722454617600.395.125.51TF-8.586-34.58630364.5185618701337.6811022530080.1436970511161161112123WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:18FORECAST2023122-16222.2087.53814.873103.1957696649300.445.155.59TF-9.792-32.79230364.4139255351837.6059755222220.11528411915902161112123WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:20FORECAST2023122-16221.926.47614.198103.4473550765600.435.235.66TF-10.08-35.0830364.5630817656737.7130865672160.10913253416531161112123WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:07FORECAST2023122-16220.394.89212.641103.9036899559500.265.125.38TF-11.61-40.6130364.8333837102637.9075347866120.080368232302899161112123WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:06FORECAST2023122-16220.393.97412.182104.2191572638500.255.225.47TF-11.61-41.6130365.020062149738.042083261640.080368232302899161112123WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023122-16221.3084.38812.848104.2998212043600.415.075.48TF-10.692-41.69230365.0677711962338.076503263240.096848995734158161112123WETL
2023-01-26 07:00:20FORECAST2023122-16221.3444.38812.866104.6657337134600.415.055.46TF-10.656-40.65630365.2840690767238.2327251037520.097542300933388161112123WETL
2023-01-26 03:00:14FORECAST2023122-16220.3363.72212.029104.2914475195400.345.025.36TF-11.664-44.66430365.0628189977738.0729298288410.079468994350516161112123WETL
2023-01-25 23:00:08FORECAST2023122-16217.7623.07410.418104.584401288400.334.875.2TF-14.238-50.23830365.2360092995638.1979893615580.044809131706355161112123WETL
2023-01-25 19:00:08FORECAST2023122-16217.8163.36210.589104.4957747509500.34.885.18TF-14.184-51.18430365.1836280861138.160146143220.045384767689167161112123WETL
2023-01-25 15:00:05FORECAST2023122-16216.344.02810.184105.2671752824900.344.965.3TF-15.66-53.6630365.6391562029938.4898011461620.031646148543474161112123WETL
2023-01-25 11:00:10FORECAST2023122-16216.7721.8329.302105.3427008890900.44.965.36TF-15.228-54.22830365.6837076980238.5221094400450.035256880017381161112123WETL
2023-01-25 07:00:16FORECAST2023122-16216.8441.9049.374105.4686963710500.414.955.36TF-15.156-53.15630365.7580116450238.5760206754680.035890228948738161112123WETL
2023-01-25 03:00:19FORECAST2023122-16215.533.0389.284105.3151463983600.434.935.36TF-16.47-52.4730365.6674546810238.5103215228460.025697229393435161112123WETL
2023-01-24 23:00:08FORECAST2023122-16216.074.06410.067105.3756824451100.294.725.01TF-15.93-47.9330365.7031603740338.5362200967480.029548293679188161112123WETL
2023-01-24 19:00:11FORECAST2023122-16216.2684.42410.346105.0748318133600.294.664.95TF-15.732-47.73230365.5256568847238.4075469206310.031075064964553161112123WETL
2023-01-24 15:00:08FORECAST2023122-16215.7284.2269.977105.7003917037700.44.615.01TF-16.272-47.27230365.8945884396238.6752013203580.027057584938847161112123WETL
2023-01-24 11:00:09FORECAST2023122-16211.0842.2466.665104.7536629153600.24.764.96TF-20.916-51.91630365.3360157578338.2702858455350.0071727197407731161112123WETL
2023-01-24 07:00:29FORECAST2023122-16211.2822.126.701104.6571672841200.194.764.95TF-20.718-51.71830365.279007594338.2290662031750.0076289755508837161112123WETL
2023-01-24 03:00:19FORECAST2023122-16213.6583.8668.762106.1562534949400.314.915.22TF-18.342-52.34230366.163069476338.8704996238120.015435793853924161112123WETL
2023-01-23 23:00:09FORECAST2023122-16221.0567.10614.081107.7290070141800.294.785.07TF-10.944-43.94430367.0869641486939.5459141355870.092096596521673161112123WETL
2023-01-23 19:00:08FORECAST2023122-16218.5727.10612.839107.9807465864800.334.785.11TF-13.428-46.42830367.2345031024139.6542558173120.054082255327587161112123WETL
2023-01-23 15:00:08FORECAST2023122-16217.5466.18811.867111.564073975090.307086780.687086784.795.47708678TF-14.454-49.45430369.3244148321841.2033363371430.042564942786903161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:10FORECAST2023122-16217.8526.33212.092111.312910126850.303149770.523149774.885.40314977TF-14.148-49.14830369.1785471026241.0943384343950.045771807911671161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:29FORECAST2023122-16217.8885.66611.777111.089312278530.303149770.523149774.885.40314977TF-14.112-48.11230369.0486104812840.9973563357140.046161487928252161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:15FORECAST2023122-16216.7724.20810.49108.390211106800.264.965.22TF-15.228-49.22830367.4742797082639.8306147538980.035256880017381161112123WETL
2023-01-22 23:00:05FORECAST2023122-16216.7729.0512.91199.64549847410900.114.244.35TF-15.228-40.22830362.2988987767636.1014543652310.035256880017381161112123WETL
2023-01-22 19:00:06FORECAST2023122-16215.4947.30411.39999.96618816742800.164.234.39TF-16.506-43.50630362.4907299439836.2368165185280.02545613206732161112123WETL
2023-01-22 15:00:11FORECAST2023122-16217.157.66412.40799.89077342382700.14.284.38TF-14.85-43.8530362.4456321672536.2049745212750.038686415211792161112123WETL
2023-01-22 11:00:09FORECAST2023122-16219.5269.69814.61299.86757288500900.044.284.32TF-12.474-45.47430362.4317565811936.1951798662140.066875223501729161111121.5WETL
2023-01-22 07:00:11FORECAST2023122-16219.3289.37414.35199.87446732254800.054.294.34TF-12.672-45.67230362.4358800346736.1980904570410.064044336574811161111121.5WETL
2023-01-22 03:00:24FORECAST2023122-16221.9214.43218.176104.534240822530.082677210.562677214.344.90267721TF-10.08-41.0830365.2063642543238.1765700308810.10913253416531161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 23:00:11FORECAST2023122-16220.96614.1817.573102.900267277410.070866180.530866184.024.55086618TF-11.034-43.03430364.23861069137.4802503928560.090441705576405161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 19:00:06FORECAST2023122-16221.12813.35217.24102.48238176610.015748040.505748044.024.52574804TF-10.872-43.87230363.99046399837.3026096906620.093436514385663161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 15:00:07FORECAST2023122-16223.1446.65614.9101.9096295321500.364.214.57TF-8.856-42.85630363.649926941437.059429333990.13695920087232161112123WETL
2023-01-21 11:00:07FORECAST2023122-16227.4286.65617.042108.8266460806700.584.394.97TF-4.572-39.57230367.7295754205140.0187763576820.26937356524729162113126WETL
2023-01-21 07:00:20FORECAST2023122-16227.416.69217.051108.775731123100.584.344.92TF-4.59-40.5930367.6998069374639.9968153334440.26870900565346162113126WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:18FORECAST2023122-16224.6929.19416.943108.159626542310.468504190.468504194.094.55850419TF-7.308-34.30830367.3392833389839.7312797002640.17857431464072161112123WETL
2023-01-20 23:00:07FORECAST2023122-16212.8312.8312.83104.36862741991004.24.2TF-19.17-44.1730365.1084592141438.1058687475780.012163959586663161111121.5WETL
2023-01-20 19:00:08FORECAST2023122-16212.48812.48812.488103.98422767363004.144.14TF-19.512-43.51230364.881056293537.9418748314180.010998804250026161111121.5WETL
2023-01-20 15:00:06FORECAST2023122-16226.626.626.6104.23783565006003.883.88TF-5.4-20.430365.0311104340238.0500528965810.23968005010373161111121.5DRYL
2023-01-20 11:00:11FORECAST2023122-16227.42827.42827.428103.510382301370.019685050.019685053.673.68968505FF-4.572-24.57230364.6004334849337.7399302572710.26937356524729162111122DRYL
2023-01-20 07:00:25FORECAST2023122-16228.18428.18428.184103.4053940667003.733.73FF-3.816-17.81630364.538211166437.6952173780330.29800557390639162111122DRYL
2023-01-20 03:00:19FORECAST2023122-16228.00428.00428.004101.98420331123003.523.52FF-3.996-15.99630363.6942937788737.091072799880.29106398373187162111122DRYL