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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 29, 2023

[ Saturday, January 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, January 30, 2023 ]

DAY 121 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/30/2023 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 16.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 7.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 12.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.071
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -12

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 111 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 368.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -163

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-30 07:00:12OBSERVATION2023121-16316.620087.5329612.07652110.793741666670.0300000000000862.15000000000016.158.3000000000001TT-15.37992-12.3799229368.00479189124 40.7726278448940.0705865752420216 1115127.5WETL
2023-01-30 03:00:14OBSERVATION2023121-16316.620087.5329612.07652110.793741666670.0300000000000862.15000000000016.158.3000000000001TT-15.37992-12.3799229368.00479189124 40.7726278448940.0705865752420216 1115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 11:00:01FORECAST2023121-16315.9986.20611.10211002.126.158.27TT-16.002-13.00229367.5408317421540.4294914916360.06334839392129161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 07:00:13FORECAST2023121-16316.1065.97211.039109.7799641666702.126.158.27TT-15.894-12.89429367.412050088340.3344816930950.064561939056542161115127.5WETL
2023-01-29 03:00:16FORECAST2023121-16316.3946.27811.336109.7799641666702.126.158.27TT-15.606-12.60629367.412050088340.3344816930950.067886064255701161115127.5WETL
2023-01-28 23:00:01FORECAST2023121-16317.0245.88211.45310301.76.157.85TT-14.976-14.97629363.4084174311937.4310669954120.075615165403797161115127.5WETL
2023-01-28 19:00:01FORECAST2023121-16316.5565.84611.20110301.76.157.85TT-15.444-15.44429363.4084174311937.4310669954120.069812920523488161115127.5WETL
2023-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2023121-16315.0626.24210.65210301.76.157.85TT-16.938-16.93829363.4084174311937.4310669954120.053559315849145161115127.5WETL
2023-01-28 11:00:09FORECAST2023121-16314.6846.5310.607104.0091963984801.76.157.85TT-17.316-17.31629364.0087337633137.8602558807490.049961915591669161115127.5WETL
2023-01-28 07:00:15FORECAST2023121-16314.5226.40410.463103.9854878791401.676.157.82TT-17.478-17.47829363.9946484915637.8501611087920.048480188245076161115127.5WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:12FORECAST2023121-16315.2966.58410.94104.0104946285401.686.157.83TT-16.704-15.70429364.009505019537.8608086665670.055886828817934161115127.5WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:03FORECAST2023121-16314.9546.5310.742100.870979193201.096.157.24TT-17.046-19.04629362.1369194376336.5291056656820.052511219493171161114126WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:05FORECAST2023121-16315.176.81810.994101.0441743543901.136.157.28TT-16.83-18.8329362.240612510736.6023036087720.054623861360081161114126WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:05FORECAST2023121-16316.2327.66411.948100.47996303412016.157.15TT-15.768-17.76829361.9026476972636.3639646625720.066000400453252161114126WETL
2023-01-27 11:00:06FORECAST2023121-16315.1527.19611.174103.3722454617601.086.157.23TT-16.848-18.84829363.6300252548737.5892522279140.05444528818626161114126WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:17FORECAST2023121-16315.9627.73611.849103.1957696649301.166.157.31TT-16.038-16.03829363.5249905454237.5142411917720.06294783549723161114126WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:20FORECAST2023121-16315.4947.05211.273103.4473550765601.236.157.38TT-16.506-17.50629363.6747146478537.6211873385410.057917747060996161114126WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:07FORECAST2023121-16314.2166.74610.481103.9036899559500.946.167.1TT-17.784-21.78429363.946045693937.8153370924730.045777080122942161113124.5WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:05FORECAST2023121-16312.744.4788.609104.2191572638501.036.167.19TT-19.26-23.2629364.1334348609337.9496797127970.034388337787156161114126WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023121-16311.6064.0467.826104.2998212043601.046.167.2TT-20.394-24.39429364.1813255467437.984047140490.0273126318194161114126WETL
2023-01-26 07:00:19FORECAST2023121-16312.7944.0468.42104.6657337134601.026.167.18TT-19.206-23.20629364.3984469228238.1400308112210.034759645402917161114126WETL
2023-01-26 03:00:13FORECAST2023121-16312.0023.4167.709104.2914475195400.926.167.08TT-19.998-25.99829364.1763544941237.980479162580.029631754007836161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 23:00:08FORECAST2023121-16311.213.387.295104.584401288400.766.166.92TT-20.79-28.7929364.3502041710738.1053479625370.02514652728427161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 19:00:07FORECAST2023121-16310.0763.3986.737104.4957747509500.746.166.9TT-21.924-29.92429364.2976235303438.0675624107320.019723465710227161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 15:00:05FORECAST2023121-16310.7963.3987.097105.2671752824900.866.167.02TT-21.204-31.20429364.7548859471538.3967165141430.023037436480395161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 11:00:09FORECAST2023121-16311.0480.9866.017105.3427008890900.926.167.08TT-20.952-31.95229364.7996070599338.4289758909710.024302756884695161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 07:00:15FORECAST2023121-16311.0661.0226.044105.4686963710500.936.157.08TT-20.934-30.93429364.8741938990838.4828055699740.024395322371684161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 03:00:18FORECAST2023121-16311.752.37.025105.3151463983600.926.167.08TT-20.25-29.2529364.7832921639738.4172058179220.028137846071833161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 23:00:08FORECAST2023121-16314.9724.9829.977105.375682445110.019685050.679685056.056.72968505TT-17.028-25.02829364.8191337967338.4430651928660.052684766547844161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 19:00:10FORECAST2023121-16315.2965.28810.292105.074831813360.019685050.619685056.056.66968505TT-16.704-24.70429364.6409545109638.3145869675030.055886828817934161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 15:00:07FORECAST2023121-16316.3945.39610.895105.700391703770.11811030.67811036.056.7281103TT-15.606-23.60629365.0112906728338.5818364004170.067886064255701161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 11:00:08FORECAST2023121-16314.8824.1369.509104.7536629153600.636.056.68TT-17.118-24.11829364.4505913768538.1775343983930.051821549782254161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 07:00:28FORECAST2023121-16314.813.8849.347104.6571672841200.626.056.67TT-17.19-24.1929364.3933661701838.1363774804970.051139074791565161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 03:00:18FORECAST2023121-16312.8663.928.393106.1562534949400.896.056.94TT-19.134-27.13429365.2807938783438.7768405517830.035259821511418161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 23:00:09FORECAST2023121-16312.296.0449.167107.7290070141800.746.056.79TT-19.71-25.7129366.2082060294739.4512463959970.031418846688322161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 19:00:08FORECAST2023121-16312.1825.8829.032107.9807465864800.786.056.83TT-19.818-25.81829366.3563066977939.5594275138920.03073854235855161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 15:00:08FORECAST2023121-16311.8946.1169.005108.3250504835500.846.056.89TT-20.106-28.10629366.5587105262939.7074908229450.028983657672437161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:10FORECAST2023121-16311.7146.2788.996107.8849052572200.776.056.82TT-20.286-28.28629366.2999335398339.5182336256720.027929625794036161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:28FORECAST2023121-16311.7145.5948.654107.6570947681500.776.056.82TT-20.286-27.28629366.1658820118839.4203550606170.027929625794036161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:14FORECAST2023121-16312.7586.179.464108.390211106800.896.056.94TT-19.242-27.24229366.5969961881339.735525807950.034511744230687161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 23:00:05FORECAST2023121-16319.9769.42814.70299.64549847410900.695.386.07TF-12.024-18.02429361.4019113954636.0120736104970.12089057412532161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 19:00:06FORECAST2023121-16319.47.713.5599.96618816742800.735.386.11TF-12.6-19.629361.5944729078936.1472211190130.11082297998289161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 15:00:10FORECAST2023121-16317.8527.41212.63299.89077342382700.715.396.1TF-14.148-22.14829361.549203433636.1154295617510.086766913749311161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 11:00:09FORECAST2023121-16314.8289.96812.39899.86757288500900.655.396.04TF-17.172-26.17229361.5352750236.1056504285610.05130902158151161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 07:00:11FORECAST2023121-16315.1889.66212.42599.8744673225480.015748040.665748045.396.05574804TF-16.812-25.81229361.5394141724136.1085564065750.054802895783741161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 03:00:24FORECAST2023121-16320.3915.06217.726103.612749244210.417323060.947323065.596.53732306TT-11.61-23.6129363.7730923022537.6915301945040.12851205517045161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 23:00:11FORECAST2023121-16321.70416.55619.13101.979430455010.437008110.577008115.626.19700811TF-10.296-25.29629362.799768870436.9981137986120.1548740353453161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 19:00:06FORECAST2023121-16321.14615.7118.428102.190482869480.437008110.607008115.626.22700811TF-10.854-25.85429362.9257660129537.0875592746390.14327313921046161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 15:00:07FORECAST2023121-16320.37210.59815.485101.909629532150.192913490.622913495.676.29291349TF-11.628-26.62829362.7580832339236.968541872160.12817392491721161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 11:00:07FORECAST2023121-16319.499.91414.702108.826646080670.192913490.992913495.76.69291349TT-12.51-27.5129366.8532638696639.9234103106810.1123552821512161114126WETL
2023-01-21 07:00:19FORECAST2023121-16319.4549.9514.702108.77573112310.192913490.992913495.656.64291349TT-12.546-28.54629366.8233820511739.9014815756630.11174056022369161114126WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:18FORECAST2023121-16323.77411.49817.636102.3247936953600.35.515.81TF-8.226-20.22629363.0059136829137.1445052277980.20315567378955161112123WETL
2023-01-20 23:00:07FORECAST2023121-16326.13213.67619.904104.3686274199100.355.575.92TF-5.868-17.86829364.2221684732538.0133677994560.26784738635572162112124WETL
2023-01-20 19:00:08FORECAST2023121-16326.72613.35220.039103.9842276736300.355.515.86TF-5.274-17.27429363.9938997775837.8496245462850.28563770267748162112124WETL
2023-01-20 15:00:06FORECAST2023121-16335.22220.87628.049104.2378356500600.045.565.6TF3.222-7.77829364.144525208637.9576371715640.57696472663032163111122.5WETL
2023-01-20 11:00:11FORECAST2023121-16331.78420.94826.366103.3259779414800.095.35.39TF-0.216-13.21629363.6024923464237.5695831036520.45480578645441162111122WETL
2023-01-20 07:00:25FORECAST2023121-16336.42821.4728.949103.405394066700.075.385.45TF4.428-6.57229363.6497493605237.6033456348820.61869630819721163111122.5WETL
2023-01-20 03:00:19FORECAST2023121-16336.46423.12629.795101.9842033112300.045.25.24TF4.464-4.53629362.8026189861137.0001360565270.61992363712268163111122.5WETL
2023-01-19 23:00:11FORECAST2023121-16323.10823.10823.10897.79466067766900.044.864.9TF-8.892-18.89229360.2874861330335.234192452790.18672537240151161111121.5WETL
2023-01-19 19:00:10FORECAST2023121-16323.10823.10823.10898.72844056878700.045.055.09TF-8.892-17.89229360.8503879034935.6261960763530.18672537240151161111121.5WETL
2023-01-19 15:00:11FORECAST2023121-16323232398.54837605769700.045.015.05TF-9-2029360.7419451813235.5505328735140.18414052010884161111121.5WETL
2023-01-19 11:00:08FORECAST2023121-16326.49226.49226.49299.63916761819600.144.955.09TF-5.508-18.50829361.3981083871736.0094066984880.27856269547901162112124WETL
2023-01-19 07:00:20FORECAST2023121-16326.47426.47426.47499.00505877786200.144.84.94TF-5.526-23.52629361.0168828935635.7424977106780.27802201539096162112124WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:18FORECAST2023121-16329.0329.0329.0397.82705101966400.144.74.84TF-2.97-7.9729360.3070340593935.2477746036720.35943023549083162112124WETL