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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 28, 2023

[ Friday, January 27, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 29, 2023 ]

DAY 120 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/28/2023 07:00:15 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 16.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.168
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 0

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 363.10 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -164

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-28 07:00:15FORECAST2023120-16423.3429.17616.259103.985487879140.192913491.672913496.468.13291349TT-8.6580.34228363.1041172180237.7575587798410.16833902492164161115127.5WETL
2023-01-28 03:00:11FORECAST2023120-16423.5949.73416.664104.010494628540.200787511.680787516.468.14078751TT-8.4060.59428363.1190303081637.7681899513870.17438747896984161115127.5WETL
2023-01-27 23:00:01FORECAST2023120-16424.1710.25617.213100.87097919320.401575021.091575026.467.55157502TT-7.83-1.8328361.2393153638736.4385634638340.18872216770899161114126WETL
2023-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2023120-16424.33210.4917.411101.044174354390.437008111.127008116.467.58700811TT-7.668-1.66828361.3434032202336.5116458367930.19288082063265161114126WETL
2023-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2023120-16423.95410.68817.321100.479963034120.31496081.00496086.467.4649608TT-8.046-2.04628361.004151697336.273683817710.18326382991419161114126WETL
2023-01-27 11:00:05FORECAST2023120-16424.15210.68817.42103.372245461760.385826981.075826986.467.53582698TT-7.848-1.84828362.7381057771137.4970525087260.18826352371984161114126WETL
2023-01-27 07:00:16FORECAST2023120-16424.78211.40818.095103.195769664930.437008111.157008116.467.61700811TT-7.218-0.21828362.6326711764537.4221576077040.2047223825686161114126WETL
2023-01-27 03:00:19FORECAST2023120-16424.69210.9417.816103.447355076560.43307111.23307116.467.6930711TT-7.308-1.30828362.7829653128537.5289382284440.20232016187427161114126WETL
2023-01-26 23:00:06FORECAST2023120-16424.38610.16617.276103.903689955950.259842660.949842666.467.40984266TT-7.614-3.61428363.0553293783637.7227883805850.19427935656042161113124.5WETL
2023-01-26 19:00:04FORECAST2023120-16424.31410.20217.258104.219157263850.251968641.041968646.467.50196864TT-7.686-3.68628363.2434319788937.8569243624690.19241600895913161114126WETL
2023-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2023120-16423.84611.22817.537104.299821204360.413386051.053386056.467.51338605TT-8.154-4.15428363.2915049955237.8912390160940.1805718775252161114126WETL
2023-01-26 07:00:19FORECAST2023120-16423.93611.15617.546104.665733713460.409449041.029449046.467.48944904TT-8.064-4.06428363.5094530024338.0469836102770.182813445534161114126WETL
2023-01-26 03:00:13FORECAST2023120-16423.23410.27416.754104.291447519540.342519870.932519876.467.39251987TT-8.766-5.76628363.2865150169637.8876765154470.16578853712176161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 23:00:07FORECAST2023120-16424.20610.29217.249104.58440128840.334645850.774645856.467.23464585TT-7.794-7.79428363.4610265794738.012353856480.18964151494594161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 19:00:06FORECAST2023120-16424.29610.7617.528104.495774750950.295275750.745275756.467.20527575TT-7.704-7.70428363.4082457521937.9746261907590.19195188132342161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 15:00:05FORECAST2023120-16423.79211.19217.492105.267175282490.338582860.868582866.467.32858286TT-8.208-10.20828363.8672490718138.3032774875990.17923522786478161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 11:00:08FORECAST2023120-16423.4511.87617.663105.342700889090.397638010.927638016.467.38763801TT-8.55-10.5528363.9121404481238.3354877611330.17091454745167161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 07:00:15FORECAST2023120-16423.39611.89417.645105.468696371050.409449040.929449046.467.38944904TT-8.604-9.60428363.9870112564538.3892355732130.16962365818938161113124.5WETL
2023-01-25 03:00:18FORECAST2023120-16423.61212.63218.122105.315146398360.425197080.925197086.467.38519708TT-8.388-9.38828363.895763437638.3237356001720.1748247184313161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 23:00:08FORECAST2023120-16424.63815.85420.246105.222734062840.267716680.657716686.367.01771668TT-7.362-8.36228363.8408298004738.2843268752970.20088694020222161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 19:00:09FORECAST2023120-16424.56615.99820.282104.92285792370.267716680.597716686.366.95771668TT-7.434-8.43428363.6624824356638.1565069767780.1989854637599161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 15:00:07FORECAST2023120-16424.816.91620.858104.749701061950.279527710.559527716.366.91952771TT-7.2-8.228363.5594377999138.082742427790.20520485052587161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 11:00:08FORECAST2023120-16424.99815.90820.453104.753662915360.200787510.630787516.366.99078751TT-7.002-7.00228363.5617959823538.0844298252360.21055635294636161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 07:00:27FORECAST2023120-16424.9815.69220.336104.657167284120.192913490.622913496.366.98291349TT-7.02-7.0228363.504352906238.0433358706110.21006650112693161113124.5WETL
2023-01-24 03:00:18FORECAST2023120-16423.84613.26218.554106.156253494940.311023790.891023796.367.25102379TT-8.154-8.15428364.3951592550138.6828248982040.1805718775252161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 23:00:08FORECAST2023120-16423.86410.41817.141107.729007014180.291338740.741338746.367.10133874TT-8.136-6.13628365.3261022767139.356218234630.18101880985006161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 19:00:07FORECAST2023120-16423.86410.43617.15107.980746586480.330708840.780708846.367.14070884TT-8.136-6.13628365.4747667982239.4642381773910.18101880985006161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 15:00:07FORECAST2023120-16423.4510.9417.195108.325050483550.381889970.841889976.367.20188997TT-8.55-7.5528365.6779412244839.6120814438620.17091454745167161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:10FORECAST2023120-16423.14411.58817.366107.884905257220.224409570.774409576.367.13440957TT-8.856-7.85628365.4181790147339.4231056222710.16368226763681161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:27FORECAST2023120-16423.12611.53417.33107.657094768150.224409570.774409576.367.13440957TT-8.874-6.87428365.2836171218939.3253729857450.16326310221358161113124.5WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:13FORECAST2023120-16423.55813.3718.464108.39021110680.263779670.893779676.367.25377967TT-8.442-8.44228365.716372648639.6400748365950.17351508118861161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 23:00:05FORECAST2023120-16424.99818.60821.80399.6454984741090.106299270.686299275.696.37629927TF-7.002-6.00228360.5015089776635.9223525627470.21055635294636161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 19:00:05FORECAST2023120-16424.87218.53621.70499.9661881674280.15748040.72748045.696.4174804TT-7.128-7.12828360.6948036158936.057284609280.20714145360579161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 15:00:10FORECAST2023120-16423.88216.80820.34599.8907734238270.102362260.722362265.696.41236226TT-8.118-8.11828360.6493617903336.0255436840460.18146643303645161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 11:00:08FORECAST2023120-16423.93615.72819.83299.8675728850090.03937010.65937015.696.3493701TF-8.064-9.06428360.6353803480736.0157801318240.182813445534161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 07:00:10FORECAST2023120-16423.915.87219.88699.693414603740.027559070.657559075.696.34755907TF-8.1-9.128360.5304002703335.9425066714030.18191474686344161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 03:00:23FORECAST2023120-16424.42218.26621.34499.9852848297580.055118140.705118145.726.42511814TT-7.578-11.57828360.706309098836.0653230551340.19521512787138161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 23:00:10FORECAST2023120-16426.00619.14822.57797.7888287355670.015748040.315748045.756.06574804TF-5.994-14.99428359.3793076303235.1432815649680.23903838625417161112123WETL
2023-01-21 19:00:06FORECAST2023120-16425.89819.83222.86597.9853307484510.047244120.347244125.756.09724412TF-6.102-15.10228359.4983272078735.2255624949780.23588959598401161112123WETL
2023-01-21 15:00:07FORECAST2023120-16425.77220.82223.297100.003660718170.165354420.595354425.816.40535442TF-6.228-15.22828360.7173797982236.0730584644880.23224503975041161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 11:00:07FORECAST2023120-16423.88219.8521.866106.98500006280.3937011.0237015.796.813701TT-8.118-15.11828364.886173768739.0373473235570.18146643303645161114126WETL
2023-01-21 07:00:19FORECAST2023120-16423.84619.81421.83106.93180430890.3937011.0237015.746.763701TT-8.154-16.15428364.8546874623539.0145700409090.1805718775252161114126WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:17FORECAST2023120-16426.4221.21823.819102.3247936953600.35.826.12TF-5.58-11.5828362.1116180693737.052996613640.25131852070331162112124WETL
2023-01-20 23:00:06FORECAST2023120-16427.71621.23624.476104.3686274199100.355.886.23TF-4.284-12.28428363.3325034204137.9205146790280.29181076577768162112124WETL
2023-01-20 19:00:08FORECAST2023120-16428.27421.75825.016103.9842276736300.355.826.17TF-3.726-11.72628363.1033656535137.7570230431760.31013325027984162112124WETL
2023-01-20 15:00:06FORECAST2023120-16429.78623.68426.735104.2578108500600.045.875.91TF-2.214-11.21428363.2664694553937.8733668606490.36209371020538162111122WETL
2023-01-20 11:00:10FORECAST2023120-16430.34424.0827.212103.3259779414800.095.615.7TF-1.656-12.65628362.7104680445737.4774138203150.38199661583855162111122WETL
2023-01-20 07:00:25FORECAST2023120-16430.23623.91827.077103.437078866700.075.695.76TF-1.764-10.76428362.7768283083137.5245754007390.37811815242413162111122WETL
2023-01-20 03:00:19FORECAST2023120-16428.38222.40625.394102.0994297112300.045.515.55TF-3.618-8.61828361.9766083803636.9576052844410.31373659478414162111122WETL
2023-01-19 23:00:11FORECAST2023120-16427.69821.84824.77397.79466067766900.045.175.21TF-4.302-10.30228359.3828408428735.1457229736060.29122819397922162111122WETL
2023-01-19 19:00:10FORECAST2023120-16427.69821.84824.77398.72844056878700.045.365.4TF-4.302-9.30228359.9478857093635.5370934421170.29122819397922162111122WETL
2023-01-19 15:00:11FORECAST2023120-16427.12221.97424.54898.54837605769700.045.325.36TF-4.878-10.87828359.8390301209135.4615520605920.2728787699128162111122WETL
2023-01-19 11:00:08FORECAST2023120-16434.17822.0128.09499.6391676181960.122047310.142047315.265.40204731TF2.178-12.82228360.4976914904435.9196899083880.52446086061793163112125WETL
2023-01-19 07:00:19FORECAST2023120-16434.1622.15428.15799.0050587778620.122047310.142047315.115.25204731TF2.16-17.8428360.1150145840235.6532081856810.5237848461008163112125WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:18FORECAST2023120-16437.23822.71229.97597.8270510196640.137795350.137795355.015.14779535TF5.238-4.76228359.4024631926735.1592831033420.63681167653952163112125WETL
2023-01-18 23:00:09FORECAST2023120-16432323292.692910265116005.175.17TF0-928356.271916262733.023880764120.44272674854123162111122WETL
2023-01-18 19:00:08FORECAST2023120-16432.05432.05432.05492.309420992055005.125.12TF0.054000000000002-7.94628356.0364406807432.8655176913110.44473826397414162111122WETL
2023-01-18 15:00:07FORECAST2023120-16426.63626.63626.63692.687366408202005.145.14TF-5.364-14.36428356.2685137778833.0215902762360.25785531097833162111122WETL
2023-01-18 11:00:09FORECAST2023120-16431.24431.24431.24494.750671006688005.055.05TF-0.756-5.75628357.5315420177433.8763535122370.4147434540891162111122WETL
2023-01-18 07:00:32FORECAST2023120-16431.24431.24431.24494.371692672662005.035.03TF-0.756-4.75628357.3000507463833.7190105809640.4147434540891162111122WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:14FORECAST2023120-16427.93227.93227.93294.268571277572005.025.02TF-4.068-7.06828357.2370225461533.6762237228790.29884354893322162111122WETL