Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 27, 2023

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DAY 119 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/28/2023 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.89°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.24°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.56°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.400 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 10 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.48 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.48 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.51 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.99 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 103 in SWE DAY: 27 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 361.68 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 37.29 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -165 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-28 07:00:13	OBSERVATION	2023	119	-165	30.88994	26.24	28.56497	103.10182791667	1.48	1.48	6.51	7.99	T	T	-1.11006	9.88994	27	361.68059647338	37.289930618396	0.39990595693855	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-28 03:00:10	OBSERVATION	2023	119	-165	30.88994	26.24	28.56497	103.10182791667	1.48	1.48	6.51	7.99	T	T	-1.11006	9.88994	27	361.68059647338	37.289930618396	0.39990595693855	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.076	23.342	25.709	101.54862312589	0.69291376	0.69291376	6.51	7.20291376	T	T	-3.924	7.076	27	360.74683712126	36.633344606683	0.29988253531643	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-27 07:00:15	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.526	23.504	26.015	101.22422030065	0.72047283	0.72047283	6.51	7.23047283	T	T	-3.474	7.526	27	360.55134637541	36.496528915202	0.31512480876634	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-27 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.184	24.386	26.285	101.43482046699	0.79527602	0.79527602	6.51	7.30527602	T	T	-3.816	7.184	27	360.67827601497	36.585336173924	0.30351021797602	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.706	24.476	26.591	102.60840154192	0.67716572	0.68716572	6.51	7.19716572	T	T	-3.294	4.706	27	361.38435638769	37.081071151195	0.32131290322455	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.94	24.35	26.645	102.9689616752	0.77952798	0.78952798	6.51	7.29952798	T	T	-3.06	4.94	27	361.60086363587	37.233665469442	0.32943190491599	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.58	23.27	25.925	102.25337857815	0.6299216	0.6399216	6.51	7.1499216	T	T	-3.42	4.58	27	361.17098024397	36.930952974329	0.31697590399168	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.67	23.378	26.024	102.61150229532	0.61023655	0.62023655	6.51	7.13023655	T	T	-3.33	4.67	27	361.38621915714	37.082382856541	0.32007124025665	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.148	22.91	25.529	102.51690104732	0.57874047	0.58874047	6.51	7.09874047	T	T	-3.852	4.148	27	361.32938110164	37.042368407886	0.30229881486551	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-25 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.544	23.252	25.898	102.6513975512	0.42913409	0.43913409	6.51	6.94913409	T	T	-3.456	0.544	27	361.41018481848	37.099260560854	0.31574132828436	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-25 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.508	23.378	25.943	102.73309140475	0.44094512	0.45094512	6.51	6.96094512	T	T	-3.492	0.508	27	361.45925192892	37.133826367507	0.31450880337125	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-25 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.608	22.73	25.169	103.1595876205	0.51574831	0.52574831	6.51	7.03574831	T	T	-4.392	-1.392	27	361.71524959683	37.314395984456	0.28439421393931	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-25 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.968	23.828	25.898	103.0308493867	0.51574831	0.52574831	6.51	7.03574831	T	T	-4.032	-1.032	27	361.63800570898	37.25987089871	0.29627459055152	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-25 07:00:14	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.932	23.774	25.853	103.10194229471	0.52362233	0.52362233	6.51	7.03362233	T	T	-4.068	-0.067999999999998	27	361.68066509988	37.289979062239	0.29507637710852	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-25 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.13	22.892	25.511	102.96441954544	0.49212625	0.50212625	6.51	7.01212625	T	T	-3.87	0.13	27	361.59813743473	37.231742329678	0.30169392715561	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-24 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.418	23.252	25.835	103.57038861093	0.38976399	0.38976399	6.41	6.79976399	T	T	-3.582	0.418	27	361.96156438845	37.48849988593	0.31143653775422	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-24 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.202	22.352	25.277	103.28085669343	0.33070884	0.33070884	6.41	6.74070884	T	T	-3.798	0.202	27	361.78798883409	37.365773428176	0.30411673070945	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-24 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.49	23.468	25.979	103.04871365837	0.28346472	0.28346472	6.41	6.69346472	T	T	-3.51	0.49	27	361.64872591283	37.267436001507	0.31389331351808	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-24 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.986	22.91	25.448	103.65719978328	0.42913409	0.42913409	6.41	6.83913409	T	T	-4.014	0.986	27	362.01358316734	37.525314314638	0.29687453202453	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-24 07:00:26	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.076	22.82	25.448	103.55436958569	0.42519708	0.42519708	6.41	6.83519708	T	T	-3.924	1.076	27	361.95196425361	37.481707478584	0.29988253531643	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-24 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.752	22.298	25.025	104.26882861921	0.57874047	0.57874047	6.41	6.98874047	T	T	-4.248	0.752	27	362.37975699508	37.784912777191	0.28911902994894	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-23 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.868	21.236	25.052	105.85388559043	0.44881914	0.44881914	6.41	6.85881914	T	T	-3.132	2.868	27	363.32606580379	38.459475801614	0.32692495146325	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-23 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.868	21.38	25.124	105.86106888064	0.44881914	0.44881914	6.41	6.85881914	T	T	-3.132	2.868	27	363.33034569686	38.462538752243	0.32692495146325	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-23 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.22	22.172	25.196	105.90654390297	0.45669316	0.45669316	6.41	6.86669316	T	T	-3.78	2.22	27	363.35743846522	38.481930509287	0.30472378244281	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-23 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.806	20.588	24.197	106.36964795997	0.5511814	0.5511814	6.41	6.9611814	T	T	-4.194	1.806	27	363.63316500096	38.679531747722	0.29090029346736	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-23 07:00:26	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.752	20.678	24.215	106.14548108444	0.5511814	0.5511814	6.41	6.9611814	T	T	-4.248	2.752	27	363.49973926365	38.58385469821	0.28911902994894	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-23 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.274	21.614	24.944	106.64744307403	0.63385861	0.63385861	6.41	7.04385861	T	T	-3.726	1.274	27	363.79840528003	38.798169717525	0.3065481581731	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-22 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	29.282	23.126	26.204	98.96848778554	0.58267748	0.58267748	5.74	6.32267748	T	F	-2.718	2.282	27	359.18753960805	35.548247626417	0.34144320416909	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-22 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	29.408	23.036	26.222	98.918335107582	0.57086645	0.57086645	5.74	6.31086645	T	F	-2.592	1.408	27	359.15712861545	35.52722520466	0.3459100112867	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-22 15:00:10	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.454	21.47	24.962	99.198131262302	0.61417356	0.62417356	5.74	6.36417356	T	F	-3.546	1.454	27	359.32673865584	35.644540987237	0.31266388609207	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-22 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.76	21.938	25.349	99.592590688551	0.61023655	0.62023655	5.74	6.36023655	T	F	-3.24	-0.24	27	359.56565192737	35.810074798065	0.32317914173914	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-22 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.688	21.65	25.169	99.49668872656	0.61811057	0.62811057	5.74	6.36811057	T	F	-3.312	-0.312	27	359.50758875759	35.76981465345	0.32069182116068	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-22 03:00:23	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.166	22.64	25.403	99.604610296961	0.4724412	0.6524412	5.77	6.4224412	T	T	-3.834	-2.834	27	359.57292811756	35.815121378486	0.30290424558276	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-21 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.77	23.432	25.601	97.668371203073	0.12204731	0.30204731	5.8	6.10204731	T	F	-4.23	-8.23	27	358.39793734374	35.004142782904	0.28971221494542	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	28.13	23.81	25.97	97.660544061949	0.12204731	0.30204731	5.8	6.10204731	T	F	-3.87	-7.87	27	358.39317577064	35.000872533851	0.30169392715561	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-21 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	27.806	23.612	25.709	98.760209498434	0.26377967	0.43377967	5.86	6.29377967	T	F	-4.194	-8.194	27	359.0612208972	35.460961398571	0.29090029346736	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-21 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	30.146	24.278	27.212	103.88269030785	0.40944904	0.62944904	5.84	6.46944904	T	T	-1.854	-5.854	27	362.14864747064	37.6209757906	0.37248674098085	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-21 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	30.128	24.242	27.185	103.82634622181	0.40944904	0.62944904	5.79	6.41944904	T	T	-1.872	-6.872	27	362.11490574223	37.597067575669	0.37183064178291	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-21 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	32.036	25.97	29.003	102.32479369536	0.29921276	0.29921276	5.87	6.16921276	T	F	0.036000000000001	-4.964	27	361.2139176675	36.961139605219	0.44308179844097	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-20 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	37.976	24.62	31.298	104.36862741991	0.34645688	0.34645688	5.93	6.27645688	T	F	5.976	-7.024	27	362.43945120885	37.827308045493	0.66611066796044	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-20 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	37.616	24.98	31.298	103.98422767363	0.34645688	0.34645688	5.87	6.21645688	T	F	5.616	-7.384	27	362.20944106196	37.664068984925	0.65339753186814	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-20 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	38.858	26.6	32.729	104.25781085006	0.0393701	0.0393701	5.92	5.9593701	T	F	6.858	-8.142	27	362.37316583738	37.780232981012	0.696439992147	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-20 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	34.16	26.96	30.56	103.32597794148	0.09055123	0.09055123	5.66	5.75055123	T	F	2.16	-9.84	27	361.81504760178	37.384893627396	0.52451966500449	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-20 07:00:25	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	34.628	26.564	30.596	103.4370788667	0.07480319	0.07480319	5.74	5.81480319	T	F	2.628	-8.372	27	361.88166051426	37.431981859027	0.54244492319082	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-20 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	36.248	25.34	30.794	102.09942971123	0.0393701	0.0393701	5.56	5.5993701	T	F	4.248	-3.752	27	361.07839396567	36.865898104943	0.60360621954279	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	35.654	25.052	30.353	97.794660677669	0.0393701	0.0393701	5.22	5.2593701	T	F	3.654	-5.346	27	358.47475136079	35.056916670841	0.58139236084732	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	35.654	25.052	30.353	98.728440568787	0.0393701	0.0393701	5.41	5.4493701	T	F	3.654	-4.346	27	359.04194748257	35.447651573735	0.58139236084732	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 15:00:10	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	36.122	25.322	30.722	98.548376057697	0.0393701	0.0393701	5.37	5.4093701	T	F	4.122	-4.878	27	358.93267745595	35.372232477325	0.59891960054109	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	31.118	24.008	27.563	98.533995707392	0.02362206	0.02362206	5.31	5.33362206	T	F	-0.882	-13.882	27	358.92394875466	35.366210825872	0.40841835418234	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-19 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	31.19	24.008	27.599	97.904361747542	0.02362206	0.02362206	5.16	5.18362206	T	F	-0.81	-18.81	27	358.54145569015	35.102772379379	0.41111497635872	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-19 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	37.112	31.118	34.115	96.651644928445	0	0	5.06	5.06	T	F	5.112	-8.888	27	357.77862758752	34.579892876575	0.63530799677912	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-18 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	37.148	30.92	34.034	92.692910265116	0	0	5.22	5.22	T	F	5.148	-7.852	27	355.35198277786	32.93860945216	0.63661071138356	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-18 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	37.238	30.938	34.088	92.309716192055	0	0	5.17	5.17	T	F	5.238	-6.762	27	355.11579272801	32.780638042039	0.63986056716165	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-18 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	35.33	26.438	30.884	92.687366408202	0	0	5.19	5.19	T	F	3.33	-7.67	27	355.348567339	32.93632286358	0.56916051011558	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-18 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	36.716	31.298	34.007	94.750671006688	0	0	5.1	5.1	T	F	4.716	-4.284	27	356.6164042168	33.789643591534	0.62087800777249	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-18 07:00:32	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	36.716	31.298	34.007	94.371692672662	0	0	5.08	5.08	T	F	4.716	-3.284	27	356.38403160513	33.632564304083	0.62087800777249	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-18 03:00:14	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	37.13	27.266	32.198	94.268571277572	0	0	5.07	5.07	T	F	5.13	-1.87	27	356.32076344209	33.589849286219	0.63595955038706	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-17 23:00:17	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	31.874	31.874	31.874	94.703301296098	0	0	5.04	5.04	T	F	-0.126	-12.126	27	356.58737145362	33.770001277155	0.43692504092312	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-17 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	32.162	32.162	32.162	94.775828154503	0	0	5.06	5.06	T	F	0.162	-11.838	27	356.63182154221	33.800076232912	0.44787998474937	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-17 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	32.234	32.234	32.234	94.445732309169	0	0	4.98	4.98	T	F	0.234	-12.766	27	356.42944699102	33.663240137619	0.45062527940644	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-17 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	24.872	24.872	24.872	95.753187032544	0	0	4.95	4.95	T	F	-7.128	-21.128	27	357.23002493192	34.205913390947	0.20227429410326	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-01-17 07:00:29	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	24.872	24.872	24.872	95.828975288935	0	0	4.98	4.98	T	F	-7.128	-21.128	27	357.2763499657	34.237426512184	0.20227429410326	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-01-17 03:00:30	FORECAST	2023	119	-165	30.038	30.038	30.038	95.900268469198	0	0	5.02	5.02	T	F	-1.962	-19.962	27	357.31991927687	34.267076188044	0.36855575895612	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L