Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 26, 2023

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DAY 118 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/27/2023 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.17°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.74°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.812 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 10 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.82 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.92 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 99 in SWE DAY: 26 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.05 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 35.30 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -166 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-27 07:00:14	OBSERVATION	2023	118	-166	40.29998	25.17008	32.73503	98.598884166667	0	0.1	6.82	6.92	T	T	8.29998	10.29998	26	358.05364610441	35.303689977701	0.81201603480139	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-27 03:00:17	OBSERVATION	2023	118	-166	40.29998	25.17008	32.73503	98.598884166667	0	0.1	6.82	6.92	T	T	8.29998	10.29998	26	358.05364610441	35.303689977701	0.81201603480139	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-26 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.022	26.546	31.784	99.911397929509	0.01181103	0.11181103	6.82	6.93181103	T	T	5.022	7.022	26	358.85191091023	35.853396068717	0.68409795765935	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-26 07:00:17	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.04	26.834	31.937	100.35180470696	0.00787402	0.10787402	6.82	6.92787402	T	T	5.04	7.04	26	359.11916853311	36.038256667162	0.68489065682477	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-26 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.968	26.834	31.901	100.35613353709	0.00787402	0.10787402	6.82	6.92787402	T	T	4.968	6.968	26	359.12179396849	36.040074711581	0.6817147914632	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-25 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.112	27.05	32.081	100.90752831779	0.01181103	0.11181103	6.82	6.93181103	T	T	5.112	3.112	26	359.4559789773	36.271814377651	0.68805292505006	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-25 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.112	27.086	32.099	100.90935891221	0.01181103	0.11181103	6.82	6.93181103	T	T	5.112	3.112	26	359.45708767024	36.272584273255	0.68805292505006	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-25 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.356	26.006	31.181	100.95438209929	0.01181103	0.11181103	6.82	6.93181103	T	T	4.356	2.356	26	359.48435417914	36.291520850519	0.65419924690803	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-25 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.05	26.168	31.109	100.83837458505	0.01181103	0.11181103	6.82	6.93181103	T	T	4.05	2.05	26	359.4140924917	36.242732889822	0.6401182274248	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-25 07:00:13	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	35.906	26.366	31.136	100.83926624348	0	0.1	6.82	6.92	T	T	3.906	2.906	26	359.41463261693	36.24310783026	0.63342409932076	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-25 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.518	26.33	31.424	100.86173363175	0.01181103	0.11181103	6.82	6.93181103	T	T	4.518	2.518	26	359.42824191271	36.252555595529	0.66156994721117	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-24 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.788	26.744	31.766	101.7468168	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	4.788	2.788	26	359.96375078694	36.625165805959	0.6737169259592	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.824	26.762	31.793	101.7379608	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	4.824	2.824	26	359.95839853164	36.621433439443	0.67532305131672	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.202	26.744	31.973	101.7203472	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	5.202	3.202	26	359.94775313271	36.614010422519	0.69198634752339	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.31	26.6	31.955	101.7070632	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	5.31	4.31	26	359.93972416483	36.608412273823	0.69667749780385	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-24 07:00:24	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.382	26.726	32.054	101.60151081667	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	5.382	4.382	26	359.87591773526	36.563936948437	0.69978709384466	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-24 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.662	26.978	31.82	101.61312201667	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	4.662	3.662	26	359.88293754461	36.568828844437	0.66807025289549	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.896	27.194	32.045	103.7219216	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	4.896	4.896	26	361.15443213562	37.459631695463	0.67852552371974	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.95	27.194	32.072	103.7171	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	4.95	4.95	26	361.1515327271	37.457589635009	0.68091872332757	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.094	27.716	32.405	103.7245784	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	5.094	5.094	26	361.15602975372	37.460756922822	0.68726364326336	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-23 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.418	28.004	32.711	103.690532	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	5.418	5.418	26	361.13555575749	37.44633790061	0.70133647274566	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-23 07:00:25	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.526	28.148	32.837	103.46184671667	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	5.526	5.526	26	360.99798866591	37.349518568377	0.70596266676598	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-23 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.986	28.652	32.819	103.48034591667	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	4.986	3.986	26	361.00911994851	37.357348611344	0.68251002193547	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.05	29.642	32.846	95.7305808	0	0	6.15	6.15	T	F	4.05	4.05	26	356.29986694589	34.108793201693	0.6401182274248	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.068	29.786	32.927	95.7352056	0	0	6.15	6.15	T	F	4.068	3.068	26	356.30270500405	34.110712719399	0.64095202999175	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.022	28.706	32.864	95.794248700329	0.01181103	0.01181103	6.15	6.16181103	T	F	5.022	4.022	26	356.33893450678	34.135220513753	0.68409795765935	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.554	28.76	32.657	96.285870807884	0.01181103	0.01181103	6.15	6.16181103	T	F	4.554	1.554	26	356.64038842252	34.339430364525	0.66319963492127	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.374	28.076	32.225	96.180414525718	0.01181103	0.01181103	6.15	6.16181103	T	F	4.374	2.374	26	356.5757562189	34.295604042955	0.65502116691005	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-22 03:00:22	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	35.15	28.076	31.613	97.048096691505	0.17716545	0.17716545	6.18	6.35716545	T	F	3.15	0.15	26	357.10702813135	34.656557395308	0.59765518102676	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-21 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.68	27.968	32.324	97.012585587733	0.17716545	0.17716545	6.21	6.38716545	T	F	4.68	-5.32	26	357.08530805832	34.641769010129	0.66887929805312	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.896	28.4	32.648	97.018069319723	0.17716545	0.17716545	6.21	6.38716545	T	F	4.896	-5.104	26	357.08866226556	34.644052588967	0.67852552371974	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.572	27.518	32.045	97.338504782361	0.16929143	0.16929143	6.27	6.43929143	T	F	4.572	-5.428	26	357.28458033603	34.777546831702	0.66401333422957	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-21 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	35.726	28.022	31.874	101.74079607086	0.22440957	0.22440957	6.25	6.47440957	T	F	3.726	-5.274	26	359.96011208285	36.622628357064	0.62499926066042	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-21 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	35.582	27.968	31.775	101.68044872479	0.22440957	0.22440957	6.2	6.42440957	T	F	3.582	-6.418	26	359.92363732393	36.597196949756	0.61821597358939	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-21 03:00:16	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.41	28.598	32.504	100.76268592949	0	0	6.28	6.28	T	F	4.41	-5.59	26	359.36823936285	36.210909035952	0.65666281237306	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-20 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.202	29.03	33.116	104.28195728951	0	0	6.34	6.34	T	F	5.202	-13.798	26	361.49096108127	37.696984964021	0.69198634752339	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-20 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.4	29.354	33.377	103.96115141213	0	0	6.28	6.28	T	F	5.4	-13.6	26	361.2982453958	37.56098159453	0.70056223721722	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-20 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.688	28.868	33.278	104.21399456117	0	0	6.33	6.33	T	F	5.688	-16.312	26	361.45014737028	37.668163692182	0.71283920824777	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-20 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.202	29.588	33.395	102.87066951874	0	0	6.07	6.07	T	F	5.202	-12.798	26	360.64199174127	37.099483146998	0.69198634752339	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-20 07:00:24	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.454	29.588	33.521	103.03721518627	0	0	6.15	6.15	T	F	5.454	-11.546	26	360.74233682063	37.169885785786	0.70288220919047	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-20 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	39.542	29.966	34.754	102.00768110043	0	0	5.97	5.97	T	F	7.542	-9.458	26	360.12135401351	36.735144237666	0.78564880510471	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-19 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	41.882	29.822	35.852	97.591698559667	0	0	5.63	5.63	T	F	9.882	-10.118	26	357.43927329876	34.883105813159	0.86025599903359	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	41.882	29.876	35.879	98.525478450784	0	0	5.82	5.82	T	F	9.882	-9.118	26	358.00892245816	35.27300037484	0.86025599903359	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 15:00:10	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	42.044	29.966	36.005	98.378935186825	0	0	5.78	5.78	T	F	10.044	-9.956	26	357.91961360732	35.211750469168	0.86467329176498	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	38.066	27.266	32.666	98.338336400617	0	0	5.72	5.72	T	F	6.066	-13.934	26	357.89486533381	35.19478566325	0.72858185742074	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-19 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	34.736	26.078	30.407	97.711433815118	0	0	5.57	5.57	T	F	2.736	-19.264	26	357.51239291076	34.933048517984	0.57769345859755	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	38.516	27.824	33.17	96.866648928445	0	0	5.47	5.47	T	F	6.516	-15.484	26	356.99602653515	34.58100877123	0.74674550068472	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-18 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.562	29.444	33.503	92.926511865116	0	0	5.63	5.63	T	F	5.562	-14.438	26	354.57296736075	32.949229058498	0.70749734442034	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-18 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.616	29.336	33.476	92.549516992055	0	0	5.58	5.58	T	F	5.616	-13.384	26	354.33985383644	32.793982323598	0.70979236161833	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-18 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	35.906	27.788	31.847	92.776713608202	0	0	5.6	5.6	T	F	3.906	-12.094	26	354.4803668332	32.887523473414	0.63342409932076	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-18 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	38.588	29.426	34.007	94.965773406688	0	0	5.51	5.51	T	F	6.588	-10.412	26	355.83007576024	33.791678345932	0.74959129531485	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-18 07:00:32	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	38.588	29.39	33.989	94.584728672662	0	0	5.49	5.49	T	F	6.588	-9.412	26	355.59567409175	33.63392035114	0.74959129531485	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-18 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	37.94	29.858	33.899	94.411743277572	0	0	5.48	5.48	T	F	5.94	-8.06	26	355.48918632075	33.562353796868	0.72338231859054	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-17 23:00:16	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.356	29.318	32.837	94.703301296098	0	0	5.45	5.45	T	F	4.356	-12.644	26	355.66863897898	33.682994278799	0.65419924690803	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-17 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.32	29.48	32.9	94.776713754503	0	0	5.47	5.47	T	F	4.32	-12.68	26	355.7138030793	33.713385292973	0.65255322953542	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-17 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	36.608	29.606	33.107	94.447011509169	0	0	5.39	5.39	T	F	4.608	-14.392	26	355.51090082595	33.576942141944	0.66563842716107	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-17 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	34.916	25.106	30.011	95.753187032544	0	0.07	5.29	5.36	T	F	2.916	-15.084	26	356.31373918635	34.118176110575	0.58640020881455	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-17 07:00:29	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	34.916	25.106	30.011	95.828975288935	0	0.07	5.32	5.39	T	F	2.916	-15.084	26	356.36024059014	34.149636689471	0.58640020881455	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-17 03:00:30	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	34.988	27.518	31.253	95.900268469198	0	0.08	5.35	5.43	T	F	2.988	-19.012	26	356.40397577966	34.179236960759	0.58987130352367	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2023-01-16 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	29.282	29.282	29.282	92.79148561424	0	0.08	5.41	5.49	T	F	-2.718	-25.718	26	354.48949998444	32.893607338205	0.31573936824792	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-16 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	29.444	29.444	29.444	92.308869246085	0	0	5.4	5.4	T	F	-2.556	-24.556	26	354.19093333914	32.694964553752	0.32290986182573	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-16 15:00:12	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	27.302	27.302	27.302	94.05182072992	0	0	5.73	5.73	T	F	-4.698	-29.698	26	355.26747223152	33.41355260949	0.23423883295031	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2023-01-16 11:00:11	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	28.742	28.742	28.742	94.836442606131	0	0.02	5.7	5.72	T	F	-3.258	-41.258	26	355.75054267102	33.73811592212	0.29234546324969	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-16 07:00:25	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	28.742	28.742	28.742	95.812874759228	0	0.02	5.83	5.85	T	F	-3.258	-40.258	26	356.35036253625	34.142952656092	0.29234546324969	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2023-01-16 03:00:25	FORECAST	2023	118	-166	27.104	27.104	27.104	101.08016147763	0.0393701	0.4893701	5.99	6.4793701	T	T	-4.896	-48.896	26	359.56051095339	36.344434508147	0.22678022691044	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L