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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 6, 2022

[ Monday, September 5, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 7, 2022 ]

DAY 341 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/07/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.82°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.868
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 667

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 248
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 56

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-07 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223415672.3000255.3400663.820040000.020.02FF40.30002667.30002248465.36593694953 00.8676093234776116 53515165DRYH
2022-09-07 00:00:06FORECAST20223415661.2761.2761.270000.020.02FF29.27656.27249465.8686107041100.540554429492531633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20223415673.7560.6267.18500.00230.00230.020.0223FF41.75668.75249465.8686107041100.89407836821091653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20223415674.1557.0265.58500.00030.00030.020.0203FF42.15669.15249465.8686107041100.900658401880581653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 04:00:07FORECAST20223415672.9455.4664.200.00990.00990.020.0299FF40.94667.94249465.8686107041100.879804665134151653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20223415673.9455.4164.6750000.020.02FF41.94664.94248465.3659369495300.897242012732611653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20223415673.9154.8164.360000.020.02FF41.91668.91248465.3659369495300.896747092643121653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20223415674.1355.864.9650000.020.02FF42.13669.13248465.3659369495300.900336642625111653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20223415674.0155.964.9550000.020.02FF42.01669.01248465.3659369495300.898390138746271653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20223415674.1155.9965.050000.020.02FF42.11667.11248465.3659369495300.900014125072491653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 04:00:08FORECAST20223415674.2956.0865.1850000.020.02FF42.29670.29248465.3659369495300.902889543216341653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20223415674.0655.8564.9550000.020.02FF42.06655.06248465.3659369495300.89920450910681653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20223415674.2254.7364.475000.030.020.05FF42.22666.22248465.3659369495300.901778597759471653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20223415671.7955.2763.53000.040.020.06FF39.79662.79248465.3659369495300.857300687836051653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20223415673.9454.8964.415000.040.020.06FF41.94664.94248465.3659369495300.897242012732611653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20223415674.2654.9364.595000.030.020.05FF42.26665.26248465.3659369495300.902414554484291653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 04:00:07FORECAST20223415674.0155.2964.65000.030.020.05FF42.01662.01248465.3659369495300.898390138746271653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20223415673.6155.2864.445000.040.020.06FF41.61654.61248465.3659369495300.891702776985151653515165DRYH
2022-09-03 20:00:03FORECAST20223415674.5354.5664.545000.050.020.07FF42.53664.53248465.3659369495300.906628696780341653515165DRYH
2022-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20223415675.354.8565.075000.020.020.04FF43.3667.3248465.3659369495300.917908944058981653515165DRYH
2022-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20223415675.4354.7465.085000.010.020.03FF43.43667.43248465.3659369495300.919707912131831653515165DRYH
2022-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20223415672.6555.0863.865000.030.020.05FF40.65663.65248465.3659369495300.87437990971631653515165DRYH
2022-09-03 04:00:08FORECAST20223415675.5954.5665.075000.030.030.06FF43.59666.59248465.3659369495300.921881070814711653515165DRYH
2022-09-03 00:00:04FORECAST20223415673.0352.6862.855000.020.020.04FF41.03648.03248465.3659369495300.881454247553091653515165DRYH
2022-09-02 20:00:03FORECAST20223415674.0352.7263.375000.020.020.04FF42.03666.03248465.3659369495300.898716458098321653515165DRYH
2022-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20223415674.5753.7364.15000.020.030.05FF42.57668.57248465.3659369495300.907241441561731653515165DRYH
2022-09-02 12:00:04FORECAST20223415674.2553.4363.84000.020.030.05FF42.25666.25248465.3659369495300.902255848169261653515165DRYH
2022-09-02 08:00:04FORECAST20223415672.2153.3162.76000.020.030.05FF40.21658.21248465.3659369495300.865828022087691653515165DRYH
2022-09-02 04:00:08FORECAST20223415672.2153.3162.76000.010.020.03FF40.21664.21248465.3659369495300.865828022087691653515165DRYH
2022-09-02 00:00:04FORECAST20223415667.9651.9559.955000.020.030.05FF35.96652.96248465.3659369495300.763101205226841643515230DRYL
2022-09-01 20:00:04FORECAST20223415666.1250.5158.315000.010.050.06FF34.12663.12248465.3659369495300.707911227967061643515230DRYL
2022-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20223415666.1450.5458.34000.010.030.04FF34.14662.14248465.3659369495300.708541858610481643515230DRYL
2022-09-01 12:00:04FORECAST20223415661.6447.5354.5850000.040.04FF29.64659.64248465.3659369495300.554015694379051633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-01 08:00:04FORECAST20223415661.5747.5854.5750000.050.05FF29.57659.57248465.3659369495300.551473258901431633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-01 04:00:09FORECAST20223415660.646.2553.4250000.050.05FF28.6658.6248465.3659369495300.516070530225021633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-01 00:00:04FORECAST20223415665.8749.6557.76000.010.040.05FF33.87642.87248465.3659369495300.699975362720321643515230DRYL
2022-08-31 20:00:04FORECAST20223415662.9648.6655.81000.010.040.05FF30.96662.96248465.3659369495300.601430148774561633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-31 16:00:04FORECAST20223415664.9248.6656.79000.010.050.06FF32.92665.92248465.3659369495300.668970291946941633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-31 12:00:04FORECAST20223415672.7551.5162.13000.010.040.05FF40.75677.75248465.3659369495300.876269431925651653515165DRYH
2022-08-31 08:00:04FORECAST20223415673.4751.3462.405000.010.040.05FF41.47675.47248465.3659369495300.889289205163261653515165DRYH
2022-08-31 04:00:07FORECAST20223415673.4351.3562.39000.010.030.04FF41.43675.43248465.3659369495300.888592608844231653515165DRYH
2022-08-31 00:00:05FORECAST20223415680.1958.3769.280000.040.04FF48.19671.19248465.3659369495300.967246657699051653515165DRYH
2022-08-30 20:00:04FORECAST20223415672.7358.5665.6450000.040.04FF40.73679.73248465.3659369495300.875893123459021653515165DRYH
2022-08-30 16:00:04FORECAST20223415674.2758.5866.4250000.040.04FF42.27680.27248465.3659369495300.90257307237071653515165DRYH
2022-08-30 12:00:04FORECAST20223415668.7555.9262.335000.010.030.04FF36.75677.75248465.3659369495300.784912371086921643515160DRYH
2022-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20223415658.1956.5957.39000.010.030.04FF26.19663.19248465.3659369495300.428162106527461623515225DRYL
2022-08-30 04:00:09FORECAST20223415658.1857.0357.605000.010.030.04FF26.18665.18248465.3659369495300.427801680227291623515225DRYL