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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 30, 2022

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DAY 365 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/01/2022 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 59.70°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 39.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 49.84°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.665 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 28 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 474 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.35 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.06 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.41 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 272 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.92 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 80 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 4 D₂: 3 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 50.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-01 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2022	365	80	59.70002	39.97994	49.83998	0	0.35	0.06	0.41	F	F	27.70002	473.70002	272	476.9182519069	0.66460394861911	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-10-01 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	365	80	53.83	53.83	53.83	0	0.35	0.06	0.41	F	F	21.83	467.83	273	477.3771101668	0.45834140558758	16	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2022-09-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	365	80	61.86	51.95	56.905	0	0.35	0.06	0.41	F	F	29.86	475.86	273	477.3771101668	0.73236364315449	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	365	80	62.21	41.96	52.085	0	0.35	0.06	0.41	F	F	30.21	476.21	273	477.3771101668	0.74265860427251	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	365	80	61.39	40.31	50.85	0.0021	0.3521	0.06	0.4121	F	F	29.39	475.39	273	477.3771101668	0.71822034375989	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	365	80	62.92	42.87	52.895	0	0.12	0.06	0.18	F	F	30.92	473.92	272	476.9182519069	0.76289355766158	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	365	80	62.83	44.52	53.675	0	0.13	0.06	0.19	F	F	30.83	480.83	272	476.9182519069	0.76037783790631	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.05	42.99	53.02	0	0.13	0.06	0.19	F	F	31.05	481.05	272	476.9182519069	0.76650165356259	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.22	42.9	53.06	0	0.13	0.06	0.19	F	F	31.22	481.22	272	476.9182519069	0.77117371014395	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-29 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.01	44.5	53.755	0	0.13	0.06	0.19	F	F	31.01	482.01	272	476.9182519069	0.76539471967459	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-29 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.14	44.4	53.77	0	0.15	0.06	0.21	F	F	31.14	480.14	272	476.9182519069	0.76898164841355	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	62.77	43.33	53.05	0	0.05	0.06	0.11	F	F	30.77	460.77	272	476.9182519069	0.75869264398974	16	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2022-09-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	62.79	43.53	53.16	0	0.25	0.06	0.31	F	F	30.79	477.79	272	476.9182519069	0.75925508864967	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	365	80	62.75	42.96	52.855	0	0.23	0.06	0.29	F	F	30.75	477.75	272	476.9182519069	0.7581294872049	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.14	43.2	53.17	0	0.23	0.06	0.29	F	F	31.14	478.14	272	476.9182519069	0.76898164841355	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.47	44.6	54.035	0	0.24	0.06	0.3	F	F	31.47	475.47	272	476.9182519069	0.77794824069341	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-28 04:00:26	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.44	44.64	54.04	0	0.17	0.06	0.23	F	F	31.44	475.44	272	476.9182519069	0.77714138166929	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	62.93	44.3	53.615	0	0.26	0.06	0.32	F	F	30.93	462.93	272	476.9182519069	0.76317218492309	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	64.91	44.22	54.565	0	0.14	0.06	0.2	F	F	32.91	475.91	272	476.9182519069	0.81467831859857	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	64.41	44.34	54.375	0	0.31	0.06	0.37	F	F	32.41	475.41	272	476.9182519069	0.80237395625714	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	65.39	44.11	54.75	0	0.36	0.06	0.42	F	F	33.39	476.39	272	476.9182519069	0.82603317761355	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	60.78	44.45	52.615	0	0.32	0.06	0.38	F	F	28.78	469.78	272	476.9182519069	0.699344424821	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-27 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	365	80	65.25	43.59	54.42	0	0.33	0.06	0.39	F	F	33.25	476.25	272	476.9182519069	0.82276786301948	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	64.42	43.78	54.1	0	0.3	0.06	0.36	F	F	32.42	459.42	272	476.9182519069	0.80262477288167	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-26 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	64.39	43.94	54.165	0	0.24	0.06	0.3	F	F	32.39	472.39	272	476.9182519069	0.80187174661784	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-26 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	365	80	64.39	43.94	54.165	0	0.48	0.06	0.54	F	F	32.39	473.39	272	476.9182519069	0.80187174661784	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-26 12:00:08	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.79	42.3	53.045	0	0.51	0.06	0.57	F	F	31.79	471.79	272	476.9182519069	0.78645052462597	16	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2022-09-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	365	80	60.6	43.04	51.82	0	0.59	0.06	0.65	F	F	28.6	466.6	272	476.9182519069	0.6936674602199	16	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2022-09-26 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	365	80	60.59	43.04	51.815	0	0.56	0.06	0.62	F	F	28.59	464.59	272	476.9182519069	0.69335068980619	16	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2022-09-26 00:00:07	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.46	43.1	53.28	0.0004	0.6304	0.06	0.6904	F	F	31.46	454.46	272	476.9182519069	0.77767947281256	16	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2022-09-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2022	365	80	63.51	42.62	53.065	0.0004	0.5304	0.06	0.5904	F	F	31.51	464.51	272	476.9182519069	0.77902145883613	16	4	4	3	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2022-09-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	59.91	43.04	51.475	0.0004	0.4304	0.06	0.4904	F	F	27.91	461.91	272	476.9182519069	0.67148194987183	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-25 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	60.89	42.25	51.57	0.0031	0.4231	0.06	0.4831	F	F	28.89	463.89	272	476.9182519069	0.70279015369922	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	365	80	61.45	44.07	52.76	0.0029	0.3029	0.06	0.3629	F	F	29.45	462.45	272	476.9182519069	0.72004573279407	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-25 04:00:14	FORECAST	2022	365	80	61.45	44.07	52.76	0.0029	0.3029	0.06	0.3629	F	F	29.45	460.45	272	476.9182519069	0.72004573279407	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	60.68	42.6	51.64	0	0.26	0.06	0.32	F	F	28.68	453.68	272	476.9182519069	0.69619640353952	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	56.92	42.18	49.55	0	0.32	0.06	0.38	F	F	24.92	458.92	272	476.9182519069	0.56914900920219	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-24 16:00:09	FORECAST	2022	365	80	59.97	42.18	51.075	0	0.32	0.06	0.38	F	F	27.97	461.97	272	476.9182519069	0.67343678913977	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-24 12:00:08	FORECAST	2022	365	80	59.59	42.58	51.085	0.0037	0.4537	0.06	0.5137	F	F	27.59	468.59	272	476.9182519069	0.66097786872938	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	59.55	42.59	51.07	0.0037	0.4137	0.06	0.4737	F	F	27.55	463.55	272	476.9182519069	0.65965580870227	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-24 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	365	80	61.49	43.81	52.65	0	0.46	0.06	0.52	F	F	29.49	465.49	272	476.9182519069	0.72125946863533	16	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2022-09-24 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	365	80	57.6	45.26	51.43	0.073	0.153	0.06	0.213	F	F	25.6	457.6	272	476.9182519069	0.59311558777218	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	56.48	43.84	50.16	0.0314	0.1314	0.06	0.1914	F	F	24.48	462.48	272	476.9182519069	0.5534984971496	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-23 16:00:06	FORECAST	2022	365	80	56.38	43.84	50.11	0.0109	0.1109	0.06	0.1709	F	F	24.38	462.38	272	476.9182519069	0.54992900474721	16	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2022-09-23 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	365	80	46.78	43.46	45.12	0.0706	0.3506	0.06	0.4106	F	F	14.78	449.78	272	476.9182519069	0.22940814465903	16	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-09-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	365	80	47.43	44.36	45.895	0.0416	0.3216	0.06	0.3816	F	F	15.43	445.43	272	476.9182519069	0.24757746141408	16	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-09-23 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	365	80	46.22	45.67	45.945	0.0214	0.3114	0.06	0.3714	F	F	14.22	445.22	272	476.9182519069	0.21437203995607	16	1	4	3	2	5	2	40	DRY	M