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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 14, 2022

[ Tuesday, September 13, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 15, 2022 ]

DAY 349 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/15/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.216
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 629

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.14 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 256
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 64

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-15 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223496448.9099243.5900246.2499700.00999999999999090.1399999999999900.13999999999999FF16.90992628.90992256469.33434701745 00.2156032395107816 13525245DRYM
2022-09-15 00:00:01FORECAST20223496445.5345.5345.5300.00190.131900.1319FF13.53625.53257469.8219694294300.140374348407221613525245DRYM
2022-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20223496450.8446.6448.7400.00530.135300.1353FF18.84630.84257469.8219694294300.267388862921211623525250DRYMH
2022-09-14 08:00:01FORECAST20223496450.6244.3347.47500.00890.138900.1389FF18.62630.62257469.8219694294300.261185481452231623525250DRYMH
2022-09-14 04:00:09FORECAST20223496454.6545.7350.1900.01610.146100.1461FF22.65634.65257469.8219694294300.385025161255961623525250DRYMH
2022-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20223496455.4843.7149.59500.00730.137300.1373FF23.48626.48256469.3343470174500.412637055752471623525250DRYMH
2022-09-13 20:00:01FORECAST20223496455.343.3249.3100.00810.168100.1681FF23.3636.3256469.3343470174500.406606977417191623525250DRYMH
2022-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20223496454.5345.6950.1100.01570.175700.1757FF22.53635.53256469.3343470174500.381077318163651623525250DRYMH
2022-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20223496455.4345.5950.5100.01290.172900.1729FF23.43636.43256469.3343470174500.410959900028241623525250DRYMH
2022-09-13 08:00:03FORECAST20223496455.6543.6849.66500.01020.180200.1802FF23.65637.65256469.3343470174500.418351147029921623525250DRYMH
2022-09-13 04:00:07FORECAST20223496455.4945.450.44500.00940.179400.1794FF23.49637.49256469.3343470174500.412972679389591623525250DRYMH
2022-09-13 00:00:04FORECAST20223496455.7246.0950.90500.02260.072600.0726FF23.72622.72256469.3343470174500.420709098033131623515225DRYL
2022-09-12 20:00:03FORECAST20223496454.9845.5550.26500.01590.095900.0959FF22.98632.98256469.3343470174500.395942179046851623525250DRYMH
2022-09-12 16:00:03FORECAST20223496454.9646.0650.5100.00940.129400.1294FF22.96632.96256469.3343470174500.395278118201891623525250DRYMH
2022-09-12 12:00:04FORECAST20223496455.5345.2650.39500.01140.131400.1314FF23.53634.53256469.3343470174500.414315807676121623525250DRYMH
2022-09-12 08:00:04FORECAST20223496455.4944.950.19500.00480.124800.1248FF23.49634.49256469.3343470174500.412972679389591623525250DRYMH
2022-09-12 04:00:08FORECAST20223496455.3643.3549.35500.00710.207100.2071FF23.36632.36256469.3343470174500.4086146199461623525250DRYMH
2022-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20223496455.5444.1449.8400.00540.235400.2354FF23.54615.54256469.3343470174500.414651746994911623525250DRYMH
2022-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20223496453.5242.9748.24500.00080.24080.020.2608FF21.52625.52256469.3343470174500.348375118479071623525250DRYMH
2022-09-11 16:00:07FORECAST20223496458.9144.3551.6300.00070.15070.020.1707FF26.91630.91256469.3343470174500.529846205972721633525255DRYH
2022-09-11 12:00:07FORECAST20223496455.5144.650.055000.170.020.19FF23.51627.51256469.3343470174500.413644117259981623525250DRYMH
2022-09-11 08:00:04FORECAST20223496456.9444.8750.905000.20.040.24FF24.94630.94256469.3343470174500.462188607753381623525250DRYMH
2022-09-11 04:00:08FORECAST20223496461.9944.8553.42000.20.050.25FF29.99636.99256469.3343470174500.633209399407361633525255DRYH
2022-09-11 00:00:07FORECAST20223496462.8544.7653.80500.00030.12030.080.2003FF30.85627.85256469.3343470174500.660744186782481633525255DRYH
2022-09-10 20:00:04FORECAST20223496462.4743.9853.225000.130.090.22FF30.47643.47256469.3343470174500.648672896182691633525255DRYH
2022-09-10 16:00:04FORECAST20223496463.0945.7654.425000.060.010.07FF31.09646.09256469.3343470174500.668285015883411633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 12:00:04FORECAST20223496461.1545.5453.345000.0600.06FF29.15642.15256469.3343470174500.605635323901171633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 08:00:05FORECAST20223496463.3246.2154.765000.030.010.04FF31.32642.32256469.3343470174500.675448303667411633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 04:00:10FORECAST20223496461.2646.2153.735000.030.020.05FF29.26648.26256469.3343470174500.609279829587851633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 00:00:04FORECAST20223496464.9246.555.71000.140.010.15FF32.92641.92256469.3343470174500.723386084222681643525260DRYH
2022-09-09 20:00:06FORECAST20223496464.4846.8955.685000.040.040.08FF32.48658.48256469.3343470174500.710552894478481643515230DRYL
2022-09-09 16:00:04FORECAST20223496464.4546.8955.67000.030.030.06FF32.45657.45256469.3343470174500.709667828513261643515230DRYL
2022-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20223496463.5746.7255.145000.050.020.07FF31.57654.57256469.3343470174500.683161507633351633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 08:00:05FORECAST20223496463.1646.8154.985000.060.010.07FF31.16649.16256469.3343470174500.670471818070791633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 04:00:12FORECAST20223496462.8447.7755.30500.02890.08890.010.0989FF30.84656.84256469.3343470174500.660428558644251633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 00:00:07FORECAST20223496466.3749.3757.8700.01040.01040.040.0504FF34.37647.37256469.3343470174500.76360092669471643515230DRYL
2022-09-08 20:00:06FORECAST20223496466.2949.715800.01040.02040.010.0304FF34.29659.29256469.3343470174500.761469216918191643515230DRYL
2022-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20223496463.749.6656.6800.00280.002800.0028FF31.7654.7256469.3343470174500.687141428157591633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 12:00:05FORECAST20223496461.7148.254.95500.01730.017300.0173FF29.71654.71256469.3343470174500.624086289245521633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20223496462.8748.2355.5500.01740.037400.0374FF30.87652.87256469.3343470174500.661375104828421633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 04:00:06FORECAST20223496462.8748.1955.5300.01740.02740.010.0374FF30.87656.87256469.3343470174500.661375104828421633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20223496452.645.0348.81500.45960.459600.4596FF20.6624.6256469.3343470174500.319530092073791623525250DRYMH
2022-09-07 20:00:07FORECAST20223496452.445.5448.9700.45430.464300.4643FF20.4645.4256469.3343470174500.313393863650391623525250DRYMH
2022-09-07 16:00:04FORECAST20223496450.8845.5848.2300.44990.459900.4599FF18.88647.88256469.3343470174500.26852467281711623525250DRYMH
2022-09-07 12:00:14FORECAST20223496450.4845.648.0400.01010.020100.0201FF18.48644.48256469.3343470174500.257276688580141623515225DRYL
2022-09-07 08:00:04FORECAST20223496448.845.4847.1400.00680.036800.0368FF16.8636.8256469.3343470174500.212839815250571613515222.5DRYL
2022-09-07 04:00:10FORECAST20223496448.7847.3748.07500.00180.031800.0318FF16.78640.78256469.3343470174500.21233923687341613515222.5DRYL