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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 12, 2022

[ Sunday, September 11, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 13, 2022 ]

DAY 347 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/13/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.730
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 640

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.13 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 254
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-13 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223476265.4499450.2757.8599700.130.1300.13FF33.44994640.44994254468.35352565462 00.7297642181131916 43525260DRYH
2022-09-13 00:00:01FORECAST20223476249.9249.9249.9200.00070.000700.0007FF17.92624.92255468.8448681152100.199523476707381613515222.5DRYL
2022-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20223476262.3451.0156.67500.03040.030400.0304FF30.34637.34255468.8448681152100.625761242099281633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20223476262.6951.4357.0600.06720.067200.0672FF30.69637.69255468.8448681152100.638123325370991633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-12 04:00:07FORECAST20223476262.1751.4356.800.14690.146900.1469FF30.17637.17255468.8448681152100.619708921674311633525255DRYH
2022-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20223476261.4351.156.26500.15840.158400.1584FF29.43619.43254468.3535256546200.593038986983861633525255DRYH
2022-09-11 20:00:01FORECAST20223476260.5250.7555.63500.22430.244300.2443FF28.52630.52254468.3535256546200.559653855618651633525255DRYH
2022-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20223476261.4951.2856.38500.13190.151900.1519FF29.49631.49254468.3535256546200.595219390985361633525255DRYH
2022-09-11 12:00:05FORECAST20223476261.3850.956.1400.13870.158700.1587FF29.38631.38254468.3535256546200.591219775629491633525255DRYH
2022-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20223476260.6251.0255.8200.17380.213800.2138FF28.62631.62254468.3535256546200.563347885629641633525255DRYH
2022-09-11 04:00:07FORECAST20223476260.5351.0155.7700.16970.219700.2197FF28.53632.53254468.3535256546200.560023497806391633525255DRYH
2022-09-11 00:00:05FORECAST20223476262.2351.4656.84500.0990.17900.179FF30.23623.23254468.3535256546200.621848468345191633525255DRYH
2022-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20223476261.851.2656.5300.11040.200400.2004FF29.8637.8254468.3535256546200.606436360251411633525255DRYH
2022-09-10 16:00:03FORECAST20223476263.7150.7457.22500.03860.048600.0486FF31.71639.71254468.3535256546200.673296890317951633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 12:00:04FORECAST20223476264.2350.7557.4900.03560.035600.0356FF32.23640.23254468.3535256546200.690676062399791633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 08:00:04FORECAST20223476263.8250.6357.22500.01940.029400.0294FF31.82636.82254468.3535256546200.677006403335881633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 04:00:09FORECAST20223476263.4450.6557.04500.02060.040600.0406FF31.44640.44254468.3535256546200.664119460148811633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-10 00:00:04FORECAST20223476262.0850.6656.3700.13260.142600.1426FF30.08630.08254468.3535256546200.616492744058021633525255DRYH
2022-09-09 20:00:05FORECAST20223476264.4150.9857.69500.02670.04670.020.0667FF32.41645.41254468.3535256546200.696596533665921633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20223476263.9649.9656.9600.02850.03850.020.0585FF31.96644.96254468.3535256546200.681702235981661633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20223476261.9249.1855.5500.05040.05040.020.0704FF29.92642.92254468.3535256546200.61075536686071633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 08:00:05FORECAST20223476261.8149.1355.4700.05780.067800.0678FF29.81640.81254468.3535256546200.606796786024121633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-09 04:00:12FORECAST20223476264.9849.0757.02500.05680.066800.0668FF32.98645.98254468.3535256546200.715001682927221643515230DRYL
2022-09-09 00:00:06FORECAST20223476263.8150.2557.0300.00040.040400.0404FF31.81631.81254468.3535256546200.676669893803621633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 20:00:04FORECAST20223476262.9550.4356.6900.00790.017900.0179FF30.95643.95254468.3535256546200.647215037133811633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20223476263.3650.957.1300000FF31.36642.36254468.3535256546200.661381018204161633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 12:00:04FORECAST20223476264.1750.6857.42500.00360.003600.0036FF32.17643.17254468.3535256546200.688691425169481633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20223476261.5651.2256.3900.01720.017200.0172FF29.56641.56254468.3535256546200.597759460284811633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 04:00:06FORECAST20223476263.851.2257.5100.00520.00520.010.0152FF31.8645.8254468.3535256546200.676333239784931633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20223476260.1649.955.0300.00090.000900.0009FF28.16623.16254468.3535256546200.546314585241041633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-07 20:00:05FORECAST20223476263.3249.4756.39500.00020.000200.0002FF31.32645.32254468.3535256546200.660008581728431633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20223476263.2749.8656.56500.00020.000200.0002FF31.27649.27254468.3535256546200.658290053334241633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-07 12:00:12FORECAST20223476262.8651.4957.17500.00190.001900.0019FF30.86648.86254468.3535256546200.644077094498661633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-07 08:00:04FORECAST20223476263.5252.0457.7800.01540.015400.0154FF31.52642.52254468.3535256546200.666849222110781633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-07 04:00:09FORECAST20223476263.4752.2557.8600.01540.015400.0154FF31.47647.47254468.3535256546200.665144144822721633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-07 00:00:20FORECAST20223476261.8548.4355.1400.01140.011400.0114FF29.85637.85254468.3535256546200.608237571286381633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-06 20:00:04FORECAST20223476260.747.8754.28500.03380.033800.0338FF28.7650.7254468.3535256546200.566299153632441633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20223476260.7647.9154.33500.03380.033800.0338FF28.76651.76254468.3535256546200.568510190994051633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-06 12:00:04FORECAST20223476259.9549.9254.93500.13370.143700.1437FF27.95652.95254468.3535256546200.538508155325111633525255DRYH
2022-09-06 08:00:05FORECAST20223476261.4650.9756.21500.09010.090100.0901FF29.46649.46254468.3535256546200.594129553912061633525255DRYH
2022-09-06 04:00:09FORECAST20223476261.4150.9556.1800.09010.09010.010.1001FF29.41655.41254468.3535256546200.592311540904831633525255DRYH
2022-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20223476267.4652.7460.100000FF35.46652.46254468.3535256546200.788291514723841643515230DRYL
2022-09-05 20:00:04FORECAST20223476267.4755.4761.4700.00160.001600.0016FF35.47658.47254468.3535256546200.788562869332321643515230DRYL
2022-09-05 16:00:05FORECAST20223476267.5155.4761.4900.00130.001300.0013FF35.51658.51254468.3535256546200.789646252950121643515230DRYL
2022-09-05 12:00:04FORECAST20223476254.4746.4650.46500000FF22.47646.47254468.3535256546200.338388118199891623515225DRYL
2022-09-05 08:00:05FORECAST2022347625144.747.8500000FF19639254468.3535256546200.229018594362181613515222.5DRYL
2022-09-05 04:00:10FORECAST20223476250.9746.8148.8900000FF18.97646.97254468.3535256546200.228167646784511613515222.5DRYL