MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 10, 2022

[ Friday, September 9, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 11, 2022 ]

DAY 345 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/11/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.807
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 650

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 252
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-11 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223456068.0399653.4599660.749960000.010.01FF36.03996650.03996252467.36522165142 00.8067832311273116 43515160DRYH
2022-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20223456058.8958.8958.890000.010.01FF26.89640.89253467.8603125406900.482561227634581623515225DRYL
2022-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20223456072.0961.6266.8550000.010.01FF40.09654.09253467.8603125406900.897811381898721653515165DRYH
2022-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20223456069.5353.8761.70000.010.01FF37.53651.53253467.8603125406900.844790413879981643515160DRYH
2022-09-10 04:00:08FORECAST20223456072.6852.8762.7750000.010.01FF40.68654.68253467.8603125406900.907901954802691653515165DRYH
2022-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20223456073.9253.8363.8750000.010.01FF41.92645.92252467.3652216514200.926680494871411653515165DRYH
2022-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20223456074.1253.0663.59000.020.010.03FF42.12659.12252467.3652216514200.929414189869091653515165DRYH
2022-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20223456074.1955.2264.705000.020.010.03FF42.19659.19252467.3652216514200.930352312501731653515165DRYH
2022-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20223456073.8855.1564.515000.020.010.03FF41.88658.88252467.3652216514200.926124197047231653515165DRYH
2022-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20223456073.4754.9964.230000.010.01FF41.47657.47252467.3652216514200.920235463986181653515165DRYH
2022-09-09 04:00:10FORECAST20223456073.5354.864.1650000.010.01FF41.53658.53252467.3652216514200.92111867714161653515165DRYH
2022-09-09 00:00:05FORECAST20223456072.9754.5363.750000.010.01FF40.97646.97252467.3652216514200.912583398683651653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 20:00:04FORECAST20223456072.6754.4263.5450000.010.01FF40.67659.67252467.3652216514200.90773728873151653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20223456072.2353.7362.980000.010.01FF40.23656.23252467.3652216514200.900275377087651653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20223456072.2253.5362.8750000.010.01FF40.22655.22252467.3652216514200.900100825248261653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20223456071.653.462.50000.010.01FF39.6658.6252467.3652216514200.888840281050021653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20223456071.353.3762.335000.010.010.02FF39.3657.3252467.3652216514200.883077726415141653515165DRYH
2022-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20223456070.3952.9861.6850000.010.01FF38.39639.39252467.3652216514200.864318159052721653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 20:00:04FORECAST20223456071.0753.2362.150000.010.01FF39.07657.07252467.3652216514200.878519071347161653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20223456073.9553.4563.70000.010.01FF41.95660.95252467.3652216514200.927095618270581653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 12:00:08FORECAST20223456073.5753.5163.540000.010.01FF41.57660.57252467.3652216514200.921703370901661653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20223456070.4552.5661.5050000.010.01FF38.45656.45252467.3652216514200.865614973318761653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 04:00:09FORECAST20223456074.8951.4563.170000.010.01FF42.89657.89252467.3652216514200.939214665535921653515165DRYH
2022-09-07 00:00:17FORECAST20223456075.1751.6963.430000.010.01FF43.17652.17252467.3652216514200.942503151884921653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 20:00:04FORECAST20223456076.0654.165.080000.010.01FF44.06665.06252467.3652216514200.952036456347971653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20223456076.0155.0665.5350000.010.01FF44.01666.01252467.3652216514200.951536628133691653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 12:00:04FORECAST20223456074.4153.6664.0350000.010.01FF42.41667.41252467.3652216514200.933238475053471653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20223456072.5954.4563.520000.010.01FF40.59660.59252467.3652216514200.906412134972711653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 04:00:09FORECAST20223456075.2954.664.9450000.020.02FF43.29667.29252467.3652216514200.943869084882411653515165DRYH
2022-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20223456074.5154.1664.3350000.010.01FF42.51662.51252467.3652216514200.934519483463141653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 20:00:04FORECAST20223456074.2654.9464.60000.010.01FF42.26670.26252467.3652216514200.931280839306591653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 16:00:04FORECAST20223456074.2354.9464.5850000.010.01FF42.23670.23252467.3652216514200.930884070842381653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 12:00:04FORECAST20223456073.9255.4264.670000.010.01FF41.92671.92252467.3652216514200.926680494871411653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 08:00:04FORECAST20223456075.8157.366.5550000.010.01FF43.81669.81252467.3652216514200.949495669502411653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 04:00:10FORECAST20223456075.4957.366.3950000.010.01FF43.49678.49252467.3652216514200.946088819944991653515165DRYH
2022-09-05 00:00:05FORECAST20223456072.4754.8163.640000.010.01FF40.47660.47252467.3652216514200.904398219156361653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20223456075.1855.6965.4350000.070.07FF43.18680.18252467.3652216514200.94261796577741653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 16:00:04FORECAST20223456075.0555.6965.370000.050.05FF43.05675.05252467.3652216514200.941111295647341653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20223456069.8754.862.3350000.060.06FF37.87663.87252467.3652216514200.852721263843991653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 08:00:04FORECAST20223456070.0454.7262.380000.050.05FF38.04668.04252467.3652216514200.856583295496821653515165DRYH
2022-09-04 04:00:08FORECAST20223456069.6756.7963.230000.050.05FF37.67663.67252467.3652216514200.848089479331711643515160DRYH
2022-09-04 00:00:05FORECAST20223456057.7142.3150.0100.01630.12630.070.1963FF25.71625.71252467.3652216514200.436027170726911623525250DRYMH
2022-09-03 20:00:04FORECAST20223456057.6742.4250.04500.01630.12630.080.2063FF25.67633.67252467.3652216514200.434461503034011623525250DRYMH
2022-09-03 16:00:04FORECAST20223456061.2845.8953.585000.010.050.06FF29.28648.28252467.3652216514200.576873940357961633515227.5DRYL
2022-09-03 12:00:04FORECAST20223456067.4854.3760.925000.010.020.03FF35.48666.48252467.3652216514200.791146611486121643515230DRYL
2022-09-03 08:00:04FORECAST20223456057.0355.1756.1000.010.040.05FF25.03653.03252467.3652216514200.409566738907311623515225DRYL
2022-09-03 04:00:09FORECAST20223456056.1855.8356.005000.010.050.06FF24.18651.18252467.3652216514200.37707480708291623515225DRYL