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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 8, 2022

[ Sunday, August 7, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 9, 2022 ]

DAY 312 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/09/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 80.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 71.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.939
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 48
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 734

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 219
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-09 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223122780.4999262.9999671.7499400000FF48.49992734.49992219449.92553989522 00.9394402460281516 52515160DRYH
2022-08-09 00:00:02FORECAST20223122764.2664.2664.2600000FF32.26718.26220450.4867758200100.512357052790251632515225DRYL
2022-08-08 12:00:01FORECAST20223122776.0763.7269.89500000FF44.07730.07220450.4867758200100.871850135529611652515160DRYH
2022-08-08 08:00:01FORECAST20223122776.1164.0270.06500.00130.001300.0013FF44.11730.11220450.4867758200100.872632507463631652515160DRYH
2022-08-08 04:00:06FORECAST20223122776.7162.3769.5400.00790.007900.0079FF44.71730.71220450.4867758200100.883971822810281652515160DRYH
2022-08-08 00:00:03FORECAST20223122776.8762.8169.8400.00070.000700.0007FF44.87717.87219449.9255398952200.886871122840911652515160DRYH
2022-08-07 20:00:01FORECAST20223122776.960.368.600.00240.012400.0124FF44.9727.9219449.9255398952200.887408954032971652515160DRYH
2022-08-07 16:00:01FORECAST20223122776.8562.0169.4300.00160.011600.0116FF44.85727.85219449.9255398952200.88651155500081652515160DRYH
2022-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20223122776.8862.4269.6500.00320.013200.0132FF44.88727.88219449.9255398952200.887050602575471652515160DRYH
2022-08-07 08:00:03FORECAST20223122777.262.9270.0600.00620.006200.0062FF45.2725.2219449.9255398952200.892687335856311652515160DRYH
2022-08-07 04:00:06FORECAST20223122777.363.370.300.00620.006200.0062FF45.3729.3219449.9255398952200.894406641310131652515160DRYH
2022-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20223122777.163.1470.1200.00420.004200.0042FF45.1717.1219449.9255398952200.890948005137011652515160DRYH
2022-08-06 20:00:03FORECAST20223122777.3463.170.2200.00420.004200.0042FF45.34726.34219449.9255398952200.895088774624721652515160DRYH
2022-08-06 16:00:02FORECAST20223122777.2563.2370.2400.00920.009200.0092FF45.25726.25219449.9255398952200.893549486696721652515160DRYH
2022-08-06 12:00:03FORECAST20223122777.5963.4370.5100.00680.006800.0068FF45.59726.59219449.9255398952200.899280149398241652515160DRYH
2022-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20223122778.1763.5870.87500.01190.021900.0219FF46.17723.17219449.9255398952200.908532624821431652515160DRYH
2022-08-06 04:00:08FORECAST20223122777.8563.5470.69500.01330.013300.0133FF45.85727.85219449.9255398952200.903508642428771652515160DRYH
2022-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST2022312277863.1770.58500.00850.008500.0085FF46717219449.9255398952200.905888239273711652515160DRYH
2022-08-05 20:00:03FORECAST20223122780.5663.271.8800.02160.021600.0216FF48.56728.56219449.9255398952200.940113191159041652515160DRYH
2022-08-05 16:00:03FORECAST20223122779.963.1571.52500.00250.002500.0025FF47.9728.9219449.9255398952200.932393271132571652515160DRYH
2022-08-05 12:00:04FORECAST20223122780.9563.0471.99500.00340.003400.0034FF48.95725.95219449.9255398952200.944340561846291652515160DRYH
2022-08-05 08:00:04FORECAST20223122781.463.7972.59500.00560.00560.010.0156FF49.4730.4219449.9255398952200.948922666984711652515160DRYH
2022-08-05 04:00:08FORECAST20223122781.6964.1672.92500.00620.006200.0062FF49.69729.69219449.9255398952200.951713446718791652515160DRYH
2022-08-05 00:00:04FORECAST20223122780.656271.32500.00450.014500.0145FF48.65716.65219449.9255398952200.941110325601851652515160DRYH
2022-08-04 20:00:04FORECAST20223122780.6262.0171.31500.00450.01450.010.0245FF48.62727.62219449.9255398952200.940779400287031652515160DRYH
2022-08-04 16:00:04FORECAST20223122780.6663.9372.29500.00520.00520.010.0152FF48.66726.66219449.9255398952200.94122031210551652515160DRYH
2022-08-04 12:00:04FORECAST20223122781.3464.4672.900.00550.00550.010.0155FF49.34726.34219449.9255398952200.948329592697851652515160DRYH
2022-08-04 08:00:04FORECAST20223122780.0764.372.18500.00790.00790.040.0479FF48.07728.07219449.9255398952200.934451411404771652515160DRYH
2022-08-04 04:00:09FORECAST20223122782.3564.373.32500.00790.00790.040.0479FF50.35731.35219449.9255398952200.95761212558551652515160DRYH
2022-08-04 00:00:05FORECAST20223122783.3864.4673.9200.00220.00220.070.0722FF51.38715.38219449.9255398952200.965643773374831652515160DRYH
2022-08-03 20:00:04FORECAST20223122780.0664.4872.2700.00340.00340.080.0834FF48.06728.06219449.9255398952200.934331700395531652515160DRYH
2022-08-03 16:00:04FORECAST20223122783.0863.4173.24500.00610.00610.090.0961FF51.08732.08219449.9255398952200.963444793730651652515160DRYH
2022-08-03 12:00:04FORECAST20223122780.1362.5471.3350000.10.1FF48.13731.13219449.9255398952200.935166139041091652515160DRYH
2022-08-03 08:00:04FORECAST20223122781.7461.8871.810000.080.08FF49.74721.74219449.9255398952200.95218209130961652515160DRYH
2022-08-03 04:00:10FORECAST20223122781.7461.8871.810000.060.06FF49.74723.74219449.9255398952200.95218209130961652515160DRYH
2022-08-03 00:00:05FORECAST20223122779.1563.1671.1550000.060.06FF47.15701.15219449.9255398952200.922714926174311652515160DRYH
2022-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20223122778.3362.4670.3950000.090.09FF46.33712.33219449.9255398952200.910970937716831652515160DRYH
2022-08-02 16:00:04FORECAST20223122778.2962.4870.3850000.070.07FF46.29715.29219449.9255398952200.910365928319581652515160DRYH
2022-08-02 12:00:05FORECAST20223122779.3661.770.530000.070.07FF47.36714.36219449.9255398952200.925524897313121652515160DRYH
2022-08-02 08:00:05FORECAST20223122779.2361.2670.2450000.050.05FF47.23707.23219449.9255398952200.923794709711771652515160DRYH
2022-08-02 04:00:09FORECAST20223122779.2361.2570.240000.040.04FF47.23714.23219449.9255398952200.923794709711771652515160DRYH
2022-08-02 00:00:05FORECAST20223122779.5958.5169.050000.040.04FF47.59704.59219449.9255398952200.928512556974481652515160DRYH
2022-08-01 20:00:04FORECAST20223122780.5359.8170.1700.00420.00420.020.0242FF48.53730.53219449.9255398952200.939777899931731652515160DRYH
2022-08-01 16:00:04FORECAST20223122779.7259.6969.70500.00390.00390.020.0239FF47.72725.72219449.9255398952200.930160201561461652515160DRYH
2022-08-01 12:00:05FORECAST20223122762.9458.9460.94000.030.020.05FF30.94710.94219449.9255398952200.463188391843271622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20223122761.5957.3559.47000.040.020.06FF29.59697.59219449.9255398952200.413483762294711622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-01 04:00:11FORECAST20223122761.5758.4760.02000.040.010.05FF29.57701.57219449.9255398952200.412755713451851622515222.5DRYL