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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 5, 2022

[ Thursday, August 4, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 6, 2022 ]

DAY 309 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/06/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.393
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 720

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 216
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-06 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223092461.9100640.1951.0500300000FF29.91006719.91006216448.22897902679 00.3929461427546516 22515222.5DRYL
2022-08-06 00:00:01FORECAST20223092451.1451.1451.1400.00220.002200.0022FF19.14709.14217448.7966496492100.0834719833786971612515220DRYL
2022-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20223092460.8350.6955.7600.00360.003600.0036FF28.83718.83217448.7966496492100.35088233915041622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20223092461.1745.6653.41500.00510.005100.0051FF29.17719.17217448.7966496492100.363955704957751622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-05 04:00:07FORECAST20223092459.0741.0850.07500.00010.000100.0001FF27.07717.07217448.7966496492100.286275288227181622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-05 00:00:03FORECAST20223092461.0341.8251.42500.00160.001600.0016FF29.03707.03216448.2289790267900.358552344743961622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20223092460.8544.1152.48000.0100.01FF28.85715.85216448.2289790267900.351646673767781622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20223092461.0145.4453.22500.00160.011600.0116FF29.01716.01216448.2289790267900.357782711855191622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20223092461.2945.3453.315000.0100.01FF29.29716.29216448.2289790267900.368608822505281622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20223092460.5845.2852.9300.00250.042500.0425FF28.58716.58216448.2289790267900.341379890592761622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-04 04:00:08FORECAST20223092460.5845.2852.9300.00250.042500.0425FF28.58717.58216448.2289790267900.341379890592761622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-04 00:00:04FORECAST20223092461.445.353.35000.0700.07FF29.4700.4216448.2289790267900.372891183014671622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-03 20:00:03FORECAST20223092461.7345.0453.385000.0800.08FF29.73712.73216448.2289790267900.385830831079831622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-03 16:00:03FORECAST20223092462.3745.2653.815000.0900.09FF30.37713.37216448.2289790267900.411279045905471622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-03 12:00:03FORECAST20223092461.7345.0753.400.00180.101800.1018FF29.73712.73216448.2289790267900.385830831079831622525245DRYM
2022-08-03 08:00:04FORECAST20223092461.8245.0153.41500.00180.081800.0818FF29.82707.82216448.2289790267900.389382667053911622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-03 04:00:10FORECAST20223092462.2845.0153.645000.0600.06FF30.28706.28216448.2289790267900.407675066421361622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-03 00:00:04FORECAST20223092461.3145.1453.225000.0600.06FF29.31689.31216448.2289790267900.369386239187121622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20223092462.745.4754.085000.0900.09FF30.7701.7216448.2289790267900.424555563411971622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20223092463.846.1854.9900.01510.065100.0651FF31.8703.8216448.2289790267900.469348214824161622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20223092461.3746.6454.00500.01510.065100.0651FF29.37701.37216448.2289790267900.371721682913611622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-02 08:00:04FORECAST20223092461.2145.9953.6000.0500.05FF29.21700.21216448.2289790267900.365504556633971622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-02 04:00:08FORECAST20223092463.9945.8754.93000.030.010.04FF31.99703.99216448.2289790267900.477140868103911622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-02 00:00:04FORECAST20223092464.7146.3355.52000.0400.04FF32.71689.71216448.2289790267900.506725143039891632515225DRYL
2022-08-01 20:00:03FORECAST20223092466.1444.6855.41000.0200.02FF34.14711.14216448.2289790267900.565215428547651632515225DRYL
2022-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20223092464.7545.5755.16000.0200.02FF32.75706.75216448.2289790267900.50836913187871632515225DRYL
2022-08-01 12:00:04FORECAST20223092464.8445.4255.13000.0200.02FF32.84708.84216448.2289790267900.512067544510741632515225DRYL
2022-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20223092462.794553.895000.0200.02FF30.79698.79216448.2289790267900.428192008013521622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-01 04:00:10FORECAST20223092462.784553.890000.010.01FF30.78702.78216448.2289790267900.427787651474981622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-01 00:00:04FORECAST20223092463.2846.2154.7450000.020.02FF31.28688.28216448.2289790267900.448089655445791622515222.5DRYL
2022-07-31 20:00:04FORECAST20223092463.3346.7955.060000.060.06FF31.33701.33216448.2289790267900.450128262980821622515222.5DRYL
2022-07-31 16:00:03FORECAST20223092457.445.5451.470000.030.03FF25.4694.4216448.2289790267900.230742480853621612515220DRYL
2022-07-31 12:00:04FORECAST20223092463.5448.3555.94500.0010.0010.020.021FF31.54702.54216448.2289790267900.458704171842641622515222.5DRYL
2022-07-31 08:00:08FORECAST20223092465.9948.9457.4650000.030.03FF33.99700.99216448.2289790267900.559124447007541632515225DRYL
2022-07-31 04:00:10FORECAST20223092465.9948.9457.4650000.020.02FF33.99703.99216448.2289790267900.559124447007541632515225DRYL
2022-07-31 00:00:04FORECAST20223092466.2246.1156.1650000.020.02FF34.22688.22216448.2289790267900.568457729737761632515225DRYL
2022-07-30 20:00:05FORECAST20223092463.4344.9154.1700.01160.07160.020.0916FF31.43697.43216448.2289790267900.454209374986321622515222.5DRYL
2022-07-30 16:00:05FORECAST20223092463.444.9454.1700.01160.07160.030.1016FF31.4696.4216448.2289790267900.452984513732831622515222.5DRYL
2022-07-30 12:00:04FORECAST20223092467.9146.0456.975000.020.020.04FF35.91695.91216448.2289790267900.635549541299231632515225DRYL
2022-07-30 08:00:05FORECAST20223092469.3345.8957.61000.040.070.11FF37.33690.33216448.2289790267900.68896173009841632515150DRYMH
2022-07-30 04:00:09FORECAST20223092469.3345.9257.625000.040.060.1FF37.33694.33216448.2289790267900.68896173009841632515150DRYMH
2022-07-30 00:00:05FORECAST20223092461.0440.9150.97500.01530.31530.140.4553FF29.04654.04216448.2289790267900.358937376850471622525245DRYM
2022-07-29 20:00:05FORECAST20223092462.5642.4552.505000.280.080.36FF30.56671.56216448.2289790267900.418911721877951622525245DRYM
2022-07-29 16:00:04FORECAST20223092461.1642.4851.82000.280.10.38FF29.16670.16216448.2289790267900.363568837760671622525245DRYM
2022-07-29 12:00:04FORECAST20223092458.0750.2154.1400.00020.05020.10.1502FF26.07670.07216448.2289790267900.252273489324261622515222.5DRYL
2022-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20223092452.851.6952.245000.050.090.14FF20.8662.8216448.2289790267900.112997923897851612515220DRYL
2022-07-29 04:00:10FORECAST20223092452.7951.6952.24000.050.10.15FF20.79659.79216448.2289790267900.112800247501871612515220DRYL