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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 4, 2022

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DAY 308 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/05/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 54.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 42.60°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 48.45°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.147 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 716 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 215 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.66 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 23 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 2 D₂: 5 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-05 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2022	308	23	54.30002	42.60002	48.45002	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	22.30002	716.30002	215	447.65914715223	0.14706007236286	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	308	23	42.35	42.35	42.35	0.0016	0.0016	0.03	0.0316	F	F	10.35	704.35	216	448.22897902679	0.0098663658293687	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	308	23	50.81	45.29	48.05	0.0101	0.0101	0.03	0.0401	F	F	18.81	712.81	216	448.22897902679	0.077398408346136	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.26	41.01	46.635	0.0367	0.0367	0.03	0.0667	F	F	20.26	714.26	216	448.22897902679	0.10249253483514	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.92	41.24	47.08	0.0409	0.0409	0.03	0.0709	F	F	20.92	714.92	216	448.22897902679	0.115689263356	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.82	40.91	46.865	0.0721	0.0721	0.03	0.1021	F	F	20.82	696.82	215	447.65914715223	0.11361591539371	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-03 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	308	23	51.87	42.26	47.065	0.0779	0.0779	0.03	0.1079	F	F	19.87	708.87	215	447.65914715223	0.095226550522757	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	308	23	51.98	42.58	47.28	0.0853	0.0853	0.03	0.1153	F	F	19.98	708.98	215	447.65914715223	0.097236541410928	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	51.71	42.6	47.155	0.1007	0.1007	0.03	0.1307	F	F	19.71	708.71	215	447.65914715223	0.092357609389101	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-08-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.54	43.1	47.82	0.0766	0.0766	0.03	0.1066	F	F	20.54	703.54	215	447.65914715223	0.10795141296169	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-03 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.86	42.94	47.9	0.0616	0.0616	0.03	0.0916	F	F	20.86	701.86	215	447.65914715223	0.11444206321879	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.29	42.95	47.62	0.063	0.063	0.03	0.093	F	F	20.29	686.29	215	447.65914715223	0.10306765979933	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.5	42.69	47.595	0.0913	0.0913	0.03	0.1213	F	F	20.5	696.5	215	447.65914715223	0.10715904504469	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-08-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	53.48	43.22	48.35	0.0502	0.0502	0.03	0.0802	F	F	21.48	698.48	215	447.65914715223	0.12779517213397	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	53.37	43.16	48.265	0.0496	0.0496	0.03	0.0796	F	F	21.37	698.37	215	447.65914715223	0.12535049957333	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	53.26	43.78	48.52	0.0484	0.0484	0.03	0.0784	F	F	21.26	697.26	215	447.65914715223	0.12293856513189	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.97	43.99	48.48	0.0321	0.0421	0.03	0.0721	F	F	20.97	697.97	215	447.65914715223	0.11673592447166	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	53.57	43.93	48.75	0.037	0.037	0.03	0.067	F	F	21.57	682.57	215	447.65914715223	0.12981978066046	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	55.89	44.6	50.245	0.0172	0.0172	0.03	0.0472	F	F	23.89	702.89	215	447.65914715223	0.18968868948074	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	53.83	45.37	49.6	0.0178	0.0178	0.03	0.0478	F	F	21.83	699.83	215	447.65914715223	0.13579259768676	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	56.37	45.06	50.715	0.0158	0.0158	0.03	0.0458	F	F	24.37	702.37	215	447.65914715223	0.20391729965761	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	53.45	45.57	49.51	0.0188	0.0188	0.03	0.0488	F	F	21.45	694.45	215	447.65914715223	0.12712519055923	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-01 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	308	23	55.83	45.11	50.47	0.0042	0.0042	0.04	0.0442	F	F	23.83	697.83	215	447.65914715223	0.187953983054	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-08-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	56.6	45.91	51.255	0.0042	0.0042	0.05	0.0542	F	F	24.6	682.6	215	447.65914715223	0.21095429471299	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-31 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	57.48	46.23	51.855	0.0009	0.0009	0.09	0.0909	F	F	25.48	696.48	215	447.65914715223	0.23915702713605	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-31 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	57.45	46.19	51.82	0.0003	0.0003	0.06	0.0603	F	F	25.45	695.45	215	447.65914715223	0.23816288908628	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-31 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	60.53	46.19	53.36	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	28.53	696.53	215	447.65914715223	0.35088118258837	16	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2022-07-31 08:00:07	FORECAST	2022	308	23	57.19	46.4	51.795	0	0	0.06	0.06	F	F	25.19	693.19	215	447.65914715223	0.22964242572512	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-31 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	308	23	58.67	46.52	52.595	0	0	0.05	0.05	F	F	26.67	695.67	215	447.65914715223	0.2803552155616	16	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2022-07-31 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	57.7	46.25	51.975	0.0038	0.0038	0.05	0.0538	F	F	25.7	679.7	215	447.65914715223	0.24651609124626	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-30 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	55.71	45.83	50.77	0.0583	0.0583	0.05	0.1083	F	F	23.71	691.71	215	447.65914715223	0.18451400562365	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-30 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	55.69	45.83	50.76	0.0583	0.0583	0.06	0.1183	F	F	23.69	690.69	215	447.65914715223	0.18394449808067	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	56.77	45.54	51.155	0.0233	0.0233	0.05	0.0733	F	F	24.77	685.77	215	447.65914715223	0.21624568409062	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	54.29	45.81	50.05	0.0385	0.0885	0.05	0.1385	F	F	22.29	679.29	215	447.65914715223	0.14681353120958	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-30 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	308	23	54.27	45.81	50.04	0.0388	0.0788	0.05	0.1288	F	F	22.27	683.27	215	447.65914715223	0.14632226028477	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-30 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	308	23	49.1	40.78	44.94	0.2832	0.4132	0.06	0.4732	F	F	17.1	651.1	215	447.65914715223	0.054125355709867	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-07-29 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	50.85	42.38	46.615	0.2467	0.3267	0.06	0.3867	F	F	18.85	666.85	215	447.65914715223	0.078021728113054	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-07-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	50.82	42.44	46.63	0.2467	0.3367	0.07	0.4067	F	F	18.82	666.82	215	447.65914715223	0.077553883775092	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-07-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	54.16	46.24	50.2	0.047	0.107	0.07	0.177	F	F	22.16	670.16	215	447.65914715223	0.14363996160908	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-07-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	308	23	57.22	48.4	52.81	0.0468	0.0968	0.07	0.1668	F	F	25.22	668.22	215	447.65914715223	0.23061677280608	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-07-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	308	23	57.22	48.4	52.81	0.0468	0.0968	0.08	0.1768	F	F	25.22	665.22	215	447.65914715223	0.23061677280608	16	1	2	5	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2022-07-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	60.75	45	52.875	0.0007	0.0507	0.08	0.1307	F	F	28.75	661.75	215	447.65914715223	0.35963889120478	16	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2022-07-28 20:00:05	FORECAST	2022	308	23	60.74	45.15	52.945	0.0007	0.0507	0.07	0.1207	F	F	28.74	673.74	215	447.65914715223	0.35923916959878	16	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2022-07-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	308	23	59.8	46.05	52.925	0.0007	0.0407	0.08	0.1207	F	F	27.8	672.8	215	447.65914715223	0.32240587998877	16	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2022-07-28 12:00:05	FORECAST	2022	308	23	52.67	45.25	48.96	0.0039	0.0839	0.08	0.1639	F	F	20.67	665.67	215	447.65914715223	0.11055563220402	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-28 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	308	23	47.69	45.57	46.63	0.004	0.064	0.07	0.134	F	F	15.69	658.69	215	447.65914715223	0.039425316998679	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2022-07-28 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	308	23	47.69	46.11	46.9	0.004	0.064	0.07	0.134	F	F	15.69	665.69	215	447.65914715223	0.039425316998679	16	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L