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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 23, 2022

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DAY 327 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/24/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.681
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 700

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 234
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 42

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-24 04:00:05OBSERVATION20223274266.4500250.958.675010000.010.01FF34.45002700.45002234458.12420256731 00.6814081804060316 33515227.5DRYL
2022-08-24 00:00:02FORECAST20223274257.8457.8457.840000.010.01FF25.84691.84235458.6543426933800.362347297237591623515225DRYL
2022-08-23 12:00:01FORECAST20223274269.8757.4963.6800.00440.00440.010.0144FF37.87703.87235458.6543426933800.7878326060381643515160DRYH
2022-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20223274265.7550.9358.3400.01050.01050.010.0205FF33.75699.75235458.6543426933800.657135678077431633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-23 04:00:07FORECAST20223274264.2553.0358.6400.00060.00060.010.0106FF32.25698.25235458.6543426933800.603005082338591633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20223274265.8251.7858.800.01220.01220.010.0222FF33.82683.82234458.1242025673100.659594355880851633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20223274265.5151.5158.5100.00750.00750.010.0175FF33.51695.51234458.1242025673100.648655866995371633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-22 16:00:02FORECAST20223274265.7352.258.96500.00540.00540.010.0154FF33.73695.73234458.1242025673100.656431969756491633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-22 12:00:03FORECAST20223274265.9652.6359.29500.01470.01470.010.0247FF33.96695.96234458.1242025673100.664491338307541633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20223274266.0752.6959.3800.01430.01430.010.0243FF34.07695.07234458.1242025673100.668319524440571633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-22 04:00:09FORECAST20223274266.0452.6859.3600.00430.00430.010.0143FF34.04695.04234458.1242025673100.667277193462651633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20223274265.8453.5859.7100.01420.02420.010.0342FF33.84678.84234458.1242025673100.660295597474441633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20223274265.5252.8659.1900.01330.02330.010.0333FF33.52689.52234458.1242025673100.649010708649321633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-21 16:00:02FORECAST20223274265.2951.5858.43500.00590.01590.010.0259FF33.29688.29234458.1242025673100.640817068555881633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-21 12:00:03FORECAST20223274265.2451.8958.56500.02090.03090.010.0409FF33.24688.24234458.1242025673100.639027087806181633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20223274265.2351.0258.12500.02110.03110.010.0411FF33.23688.23234458.1242025673100.638668724678851633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-21 04:00:06FORECAST20223274265.2551.0258.13500.01480.02480.010.0348FF33.25690.25234458.1242025673100.639385328988661633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-21 00:00:04FORECAST20223274264.6751.7858.225000.020.010.03FF32.67681.67234458.1242025673100.618414732062141633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20223274266.4450.6958.565000.0100.01FF34.44689.44234458.1242025673100.681065867079571633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-20 16:00:03FORECAST20223274267.6951.3759.5300.00080.020800.0208FF35.69691.69234458.1242025673100.722502877640851643515230DRYL
2022-08-20 12:00:04FORECAST20223274265.4251.1358.27500.00550.035500.0355FF33.42689.42234458.1242025673100.645456495702241633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-20 08:00:04FORECAST20223274265.0850.9558.01500.00580.01580.010.0258FF33.08692.08234458.1242025673100.63327883981291633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-20 04:00:09FORECAST20223274268.9250.8159.86500.0040.02400.024FF36.92692.92234458.1242025673100.760527560288341643515160DRYH
2022-08-20 00:00:04FORECAST20223274270.0951.3160.7000.020.010.03FF38.09685.09234458.1242025673100.793886526493731643515160DRYH
2022-08-19 20:00:03FORECAST20223274270.6151.6461.125000.020.010.03FF38.61702.61234458.1242025673100.807783195528481643515160DRYH
2022-08-19 16:00:03FORECAST20223274270.7853.161.94000.010.010.02FF38.78702.78234458.1242025673100.812199309211041643515160DRYH
2022-08-19 12:00:03FORECAST20223274270.7452.8161.77500.00510.01510.010.0251FF38.74697.74234458.1242025673100.81116588912941643515160DRYH
2022-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20223274267.452.4559.92500.00570.01570.020.0357FF35.4690.4234458.1242025673100.71312673552261643515230DRYL
2022-08-19 04:00:07FORECAST20223274267.3152.3259.81500.00750.01750.030.0475FF35.31696.31234458.1242025673100.710186705573121643515230DRYL
2022-08-19 00:00:04FORECAST20223274269.4852.460.94000.020.020.04FF37.48688.48234458.1242025673100.776849388208121643515160DRYH
2022-08-18 20:00:03FORECAST20223274268.5852.0560.315000.020.050.07FF36.58693.58234458.1242025673100.750308934123911643515160DRYH
2022-08-18 16:00:04FORECAST20223274268.5751.0559.81000.020.040.06FF36.57696.57234458.1242025673100.750004925197381643515160DRYH
2022-08-18 12:00:04FORECAST20223274267.1952.0259.605000.030.050.08FF35.19691.19234458.1242025673100.70624484567231643515230DRYL
2022-08-18 08:00:04FORECAST20223274266.6952.3759.53000.030.120.15FF34.69682.69234458.1242025673100.689559864191751633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 04:00:11FORECAST20223274266.6752.3559.51000.030.080.11FF34.67686.67234458.1242025673100.688883969404591633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-18 00:00:05FORECAST20223274270.0454.1762.10500.00090.05090.060.1109FF38.04687.04234458.1242025673100.792519685841231643515160DRYH
2022-08-17 20:00:04FORECAST20223274270.0454.1562.09500.00090.04090.190.2309FF38.04692.04234458.1242025673100.792519685841231643515160DRYH
2022-08-17 16:00:04FORECAST20223274269.5353.6561.59000.010.150.16FF37.53694.53234458.1242025673100.77827529360481643515160DRYH
2022-08-17 12:00:04FORECAST20223274268.3253.6660.990000.160.16FF36.32694.32234458.1242025673100.742341399572851643515160DRYH
2022-08-17 08:00:05FORECAST20223274268.3553.6160.980000.150.15FF36.35691.35234458.1242025673100.743267410686571643515160DRYH
2022-08-17 04:00:09FORECAST20223274268.4853.4460.96000.010.150.16FF36.48691.48234458.1242025673100.747260042695881643515160DRYH
2022-08-17 00:00:04FORECAST20223274268.2452.4960.3650000.10.1FF36.24686.24234458.1242025673100.739863596833951643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 20:00:04FORECAST20223274268.3352.5360.430000.040.04FF36.33691.33234458.1242025673100.742650262246271643515160DRYH
2022-08-16 16:00:04FORECAST20223274266.6154.4460.52500.01410.09410.070.1641FF34.61690.61234458.1242025673100.686852470278811633525255DRYH
2022-08-16 12:00:04FORECAST20223274262.950.9356.915000.430.040.47FF30.9683.9234458.1242025673100.552492758220211633525255DRYH
2022-08-16 08:00:04FORECAST20223274255.5654.454.98000.080.020.1FF23.56676.56234458.1242025673100.284217738768651623515225DRYL
2022-08-16 04:00:10FORECAST20223274255.2454.3254.78000.040.020.06FF23.24684.24234458.1242025673100.27392708964451623515225DRYL