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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 18, 2022

[ Wednesday, August 17, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, August 19, 2022 ]

DAY 322 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/19/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 78.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 68.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 73.50°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.935
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 46
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 685

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 229
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 37

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-19 04:00:04OBSERVATION20223223778.1800868.8200873.5000800000FF46.18008685.18008229455.44307233574 00.935215129180416 53515165DRYH
2022-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20223223768.1968.1968.1900.00010.000100.0001FF36.19675.19230455.9833814234300.692827565937751633515155DRYH
2022-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20223223778.467.2872.8400.02250.022500.0225FF46.4685.4230455.9833814234300.93799021121341653515165DRYH
2022-08-18 08:00:01FORECAST20223223774.5767.1870.87500.0230.02300.023FF42.57681.57230455.9833814234300.874882135040371653515165DRYH
2022-08-18 04:00:09FORECAST20223223773.1267.4670.2900.00450.004500.0045FF41.12680.12230455.9833814234300.842047372856521643515160DRYH
2022-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20223223776.4467.6172.02500.01980.019800.0198FF44.44671.44229455.4430723357400.909763613316541653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20223223776.1567.3271.73500.03110.031100.0311FF44.15678.15229455.4430723357400.904885115258191653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20223223777.4167.0272.21500.03860.038600.0386FF45.41679.41229455.4430723357400.924736315286011653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20223223778.0966.3972.2400.03560.035600.0356FF46.09680.09229455.4430723357400.934051080070071653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20223223776.666.4871.5400.00470.004700.0047FF44.6677.6229455.4430723357400.912374622919271653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 04:00:07FORECAST20223223776.666.4871.5400.00470.004700.0047FF44.6677.6229455.4430723357400.912374622919271653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20223223778.0466.9572.49500.02170.041700.0417FF46.04674.04229455.4430723357400.933398025749811653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 20:00:03FORECAST20223223777.4566.3771.9100.00460.004600.0046FF45.45678.45229455.4430723357400.925310538243211653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 16:00:02FORECAST20223223777.1566.0471.59500.0390.03900.039FF45.15678.15229455.4430723357400.920921820079591653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20223223776.0666.2771.16500.02690.026900.0269FF44.06676.06229455.4430723357400.903332428993571653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 08:00:03FORECAST20223223776.3866.1371.25500.0090.00900.009FF44.38677.38229455.4430723357400.908769778826051653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 04:00:08FORECAST20223223776.6165.871.20500.02010.020100.0201FF44.61678.61229455.4430723357400.912535925823521653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20223223778.0566.3472.19500.00890.008900.0089FF46.05663.05229455.4430723357400.933529034108041653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 20:00:03FORECAST20223223779.7565.872.77500.0120.01200.012FF47.75678.75229455.4430723357400.953050334965891653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 16:00:02FORECAST20223223781.0563.5772.3100.02180.021800.0218FF49.05681.05229455.4430723357400.964638881822381653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20223223778.5461.467000.03360.033600.0336FF46.54678.54229455.4430723357400.939708078926511653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 08:00:03FORECAST20223223780.2661.4970.87500.04920.049200.0492FF48.26677.26229455.4430723357400.957914571470761653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 04:00:08FORECAST20223223780.7261.5171.11500.03310.033100.0331FF48.72676.72229455.4430723357400.96194527710821653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 00:00:04FORECAST20223223778.4464.5571.49500.0140.01400.014FF46.44663.44229455.4430723357400.938484869616781653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 20:00:03FORECAST20223223778.8264.0271.4200.00710.007100.0071FF46.82674.82229455.4430723357400.943032238935951653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20223223778.8164.0271.41500.00710.007100.0071FF46.81672.81229455.4430723357400.94291604839541653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 12:00:04FORECAST20223223778.3762.0770.2200.01840.018400.0184FF46.37672.37229455.4430723357400.937617191658241653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 08:00:03FORECAST20223223775.9263.0169.46500.00020.000200.0002FF43.92663.92229455.4430723357400.900880385575871653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 04:00:09FORECAST20223223775.9263.0169.46500.00020.000200.0002FF43.92666.92229455.4430723357400.900880385575871653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20223223777.4665.4871.4700.01210.012100.0121FF45.46655.46229455.4430723357400.925453572040621653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 20:00:03FORECAST20223223777.8765.4971.6800.01210.01210.010.0221FF45.87667.87229455.4430723357400.931140288831111653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 16:00:04FORECAST20223223777.7565.5371.6400.01210.01210.010.0221FF45.75667.75229455.4430723357400.929511511171861653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 12:00:04FORECAST20223223773.1161.8867.49500.01980.01980.010.0298FF41.11662.11229455.4430723357400.841802924567331643515160DRYH
2022-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20223223772.5762.0567.3100.02020.02020.010.0302FF40.57659.57229455.4430723357400.828235365969731643515160DRYH
2022-08-13 04:00:07FORECAST20223223772.6262.0567.33500.02020.02020.010.0302FF40.62662.62229455.4430723357400.829521899023521643515160DRYH
2022-08-13 00:00:04FORECAST20223223773.6162.8768.240000.010.01FF41.61654.61229455.4430723357400.853722303756311653515165DRYH
2022-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20223223771.7259.8765.7950000.020.02FF39.72670.72229455.4430723357400.805424392806951643515160DRYH
2022-08-12 16:00:03FORECAST20223223771.6259.8665.740000.010.01FF39.62669.62229455.4430723357400.802624835607731643515160DRYH
2022-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20223223766.0657.0161.53500.02530.12530.010.1353FF34.06661.06229455.4430723357400.613456721269351633525255DRYH
2022-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20223223765.2656.1260.6900.02820.12820.030.1582FF33.26656.26229455.4430723357400.582146278507721633525255DRYH
2022-08-12 04:00:08FORECAST20223223765.6756.3961.0300.02820.12820.020.1482FF33.67663.67229455.4430723357400.598271433067921633525255DRYH
2022-08-12 00:00:05FORECAST20223223773.976066.98500.00220.00220.020.0222FF41.97655.97229455.4430723357400.861922075266331653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 20:00:04FORECAST20223223773.9663.4768.71500.00220.00220.040.0422FF41.96670.96229455.4430723357400.861698610834971653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 16:00:04FORECAST20223223777.0166.3771.6900.00220.00220.030.0322FF45.01678.01229455.4430723357400.918808331113471653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 12:00:05FORECAST20223223773.0564.95690000.020.02FF41.05668.05229455.4430723357400.840331037588671643515160DRYH
2022-08-11 08:00:04FORECAST20223223767.0864.9566.0150000.020.02FF35.08656.08229455.4430723357400.652306672528141633515227.5DRYL
2022-08-11 04:00:08FORECAST20223223766.0264.8865.450000.010.01FF34.02659.02229455.4430723357400.611906795042891633515227.5DRYL