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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 17, 2022

[ Tuesday, August 16, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 18, 2022 ]

DAY 321 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/18/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 84.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 65.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 75.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.984
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 53
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 688

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 228
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 36

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-18 04:00:07OBSERVATION20223213684.9000265.7899675.3449900000FF52.90002687.90002228454.90070616754 00.9843015204114316 53515165DRYH
2022-08-18 00:00:02FORECAST20223213672.6972.6972.6900000FF40.69675.69229455.4430723357400.830103907558611643515160DRYH
2022-08-17 12:00:01FORECAST20223213679.6469.7774.70500.00150.001500.0015FF47.64682.64229455.4430723357400.949006214498911653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 08:00:02FORECAST20223213678.9866.6672.8200000FF46.98681.98229455.4430723357400.941857325987781653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 04:00:07FORECAST20223213678.962.8170.85500000FF46.9681.9229455.4430723357400.940939922488241653515165DRYH
2022-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20223213681.8762.9572.4100.00710.017100.0171FF49.87676.87228454.9007061675400.968143868340691653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20223213681.8262.2272.0200000FF49.82681.82228454.9007061675400.967791105928741653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 16:00:01FORECAST20223213681.7662.0371.89500000FF49.76681.76228454.9007061675400.967363553508411653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20223213681.3762.8672.11500000FF49.37681.37228454.9007061675400.964469387911761653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20223213681.5163.2372.3700000FF49.51681.51228454.9007061675400.96553156538021653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 04:00:08FORECAST20223213681.5962.5772.0800000FF49.59682.59228454.9007061675400.966126752437571653515165DRYH
2022-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20223213680.6363.2871.95500.00180.001800.0018FF48.63665.63228454.9007061675400.958402264914041653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 20:00:03FORECAST20223213680.0163.371.65500.00110.001100.0011FF48.01680.01228454.9007061675400.952697816700721653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 16:00:02FORECAST20223213680.3162.3971.3500000FF48.31681.31228454.9007061675400.955531568358521653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20223213680.363.3271.8100000FF48.3681.3228454.9007061675400.955439357737581653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 08:00:03FORECAST20223213680.1863.2771.72500000FF48.18678.18228454.9007061675400.954320811913691653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 04:00:07FORECAST20223213680.286371.6400000FF48.28677.28228454.9007061675400.955254475905351653515165DRYH
2022-08-15 00:00:04FORECAST20223213680.3261.7371.02500000FF48.32666.32228454.9007061675400.955623625670071653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 20:00:03FORECAST20223213681.7563.4972.6200000FF49.75676.75228454.9007061675400.967291843049981653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20223213681.1662.9772.06500.00140.001400.0014FF49.16675.16228454.9007061675400.962826093893861653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20223213680.9962.7171.8500.00050.000500.0005FF48.99674.99228454.9007061675400.961450912920311653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 08:00:03FORECAST20223213679.1561.270.17500.00090.000900.0009FF47.15669.15228454.9007061675400.943769732696841653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20223213681.3362.2471.78500000FF49.33672.33228454.9007061675400.96416104162391653515165DRYH
2022-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20223213680.2260.6770.44500000FF48.22659.22228454.9007061675400.954696133770061653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 20:00:03FORECAST20223213680.4459.8770.1550000.010.01FF48.44671.44228454.9007061675400.956716415564051653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 16:00:03FORECAST20223213679.8860.1570.0150000.010.01FF47.88670.88228454.9007061675400.951425883966441653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 12:00:04FORECAST20223213679.0661.2770.1650000.010.01FF47.06670.06228454.9007061675400.942763532691951653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20223213676.0760.8868.4750000.010.01FF44.07668.07228454.9007061675400.900671518599741653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 04:00:07FORECAST20223213676.0660.8868.470000.010.01FF44.06671.06228454.9007061675400.900500386620811653515165DRYH
2022-08-13 00:00:04FORECAST20223213681.9161.9171.910000.010.01FF49.91661.91228454.9007061675400.968423781578511653515165DRYH
2022-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20223213680.862.0371.4150000.020.02FF48.8679.8228454.9007061675400.959865333414551653515165DRYH
2022-08-12 16:00:03FORECAST20223213680.7862.0371.4050000.010.01FF48.78678.78228454.9007061675400.959695401215161653515165DRYH
2022-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20223213677.9360.9869.45500.09870.09870.010.1087FF45.93675.93228454.9007061675400.9288956428910916535251130DRYVH
2022-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20223213678.5960.7969.6900.09910.09910.030.1291FF46.59671.59228454.9007061675400.9372777368641816535251130DRYVH
2022-08-12 04:00:08FORECAST20223213678.5160.7269.61500.09910.09910.020.1191FF46.51678.51228454.9007061675400.9363045990053616535251130DRYVH
2022-08-12 00:00:04FORECAST20223213678.5863.5171.0450000.020.02FF46.58662.58228454.9007061675400.937156729911661653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 20:00:04FORECAST20223213678.5863.4971.0350000.040.04FF46.58677.58228454.9007061675400.937156729911661653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 16:00:04FORECAST20223213681.2264.7772.9950000.030.03FF49.22682.22228454.9007061675400.963301804159691653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 12:00:04FORECAST20223213679.0265.4372.2250000.020.02FF47.02676.02228454.9007061675400.942311823872171653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 08:00:04FORECAST20223213677.6265.4271.520000.020.02FF45.62669.62228454.9007061675400.924674123051811653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 04:00:08FORECAST20223213676.5364.6170.570000.010.01FF44.53673.53228454.9007061675400.908313385092341653515165DRYH
2022-08-11 00:00:05FORECAST20223213679.6362.7871.20500.00190.00190.040.0419FF47.63666.63228454.9007061675400.948903356442061653515165DRYH
2022-08-10 20:00:04FORECAST20223213679.5962.4571.0200.00190.00190.060.0619FF47.59681.59228454.9007061675400.94849027763021653515165DRYH
2022-08-10 16:00:05FORECAST20223213678.5562.4470.49500.00190.00190.060.0619FF46.55682.55228454.9007061675400.936792621233661653515165DRYH
2022-08-10 12:00:04FORECAST20223213672.8460.8366.8350000.020.02FF40.84675.84228454.9007061675400.833789744483971643515160DRYH
2022-08-10 08:00:05FORECAST20223213662.1460.861.470000.040.04FF30.14656.14228454.9007061675400.469332804279181623515225DRYL
2022-08-10 04:00:09FORECAST20223213661.260.1960.6950000.040.04FF29.2655.2228454.9007061675400.432959764965671623515225DRYL