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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 11, 2022

[ Wednesday, August 10, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, August 12, 2022 ]

DAY 315 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/12/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.660
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 759

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 222
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-12 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223153069.3199449.0400659.1800000FF37.31994759.31994222451.60286979454 00.6599473248388516 32515150DRYMH
2022-08-12 00:00:02FORECAST20223153055.3455.3455.3400000FF23.34745.34223452.1577439607100.17486502283321612515220DRYL
2022-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20223153068.354.8761.58500.00390.003900.0039FF36.3758.3223452.1577439607100.623247588242071632515150DRYMH
2022-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20223153065.0652.1958.62500.00160.001600.0016FF33.06755.06223452.1577439607100.500704878297231632515225DRYL
2022-08-11 04:00:06FORECAST20223153065.1550.9758.0600.0020.00200.002FF33.15755.15223452.1577439607100.504165116434881632515225DRYL
2022-08-11 00:00:03FORECAST20223153065.8750.4658.16500.010.0100.01FF33.87738.87222451.6028697945400.531813905247421632515225DRYL
2022-08-10 20:00:01FORECAST20223153065.9549.0957.5200.01190.021900.0219FF33.95753.95222451.6028697945400.534878980464761632515225DRYL
2022-08-10 16:00:02FORECAST20223153065.6250.5958.10500.02040.030400.0304FF33.62753.62222451.6028697945400.522224210429051632515225DRYL
2022-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20223153065.3750.6858.02500.00460.014600.0146FF33.37753.37222451.6028697945400.512621629742221632515225DRYL
2022-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20223153064.7850.3157.54500.00390.043900.0439FF32.78750.78222451.6028697945400.489940525298511622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-10 04:00:08FORECAST20223153064.7749.8557.3100.0030.03300.033FF32.77748.77222451.6028697945400.489556172992451622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-10 00:00:03FORECAST20223153064.7350.3857.55500.00440.084400.0844FF32.73740.73222451.6028697945400.488018864315921622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-09 20:00:02FORECAST20223153064.7850.2857.5300.00440.114400.1144FF32.78748.78222451.6028697945400.489940525298511622525245DRYM
2022-08-09 16:00:02FORECAST20223153065.1850.0157.59500.00320.123200.1232FF33.18748.18222451.6028697945400.505318472369941632525250DRYMH
2022-08-09 12:00:04FORECAST20223153065.1250.3957.75500.00160.081600.0816FF33.12749.12222451.6028697945400.503011725683841632515225DRYL
2022-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20223153065.2449.7557.49500.00250.072500.0725FF33.24747.24222451.6028697945400.507625041234051632515225DRYL
2022-08-09 04:00:08FORECAST20223153065.5349.9857.75500.0010.14100.141FF33.53748.53222451.6028697945400.518768475723321632525250DRYMH
2022-08-09 00:00:03FORECAST20223153065.8650.6458.2500.00080.120800.1208FF33.86733.86222451.6028697945400.531430634448441632525250DRYMH
2022-08-08 20:00:03FORECAST20223153066.9450.1558.54500.00080.140800.1408FF34.94744.94222451.6028697945400.572581873425931632525250DRYMH
2022-08-08 16:00:03FORECAST20223153066.7150.0758.3900.00080.140800.1408FF34.71743.71222451.6028697945400.563868661788231632525250DRYMH
2022-08-08 12:00:03FORECAST20223153066.2850.4758.375000.1900.19FF34.28744.28222451.6028697945400.547498571408131632525250DRYMH
2022-08-08 08:00:03FORECAST20223153065.5749.7657.665000.1700.17FF33.57744.57222451.6028697945400.520304547424881632525250DRYMH
2022-08-08 04:00:08FORECAST20223153068.5649.6359.095000.140.010.15FF36.56748.56222451.6028697945400.632724902410316325251100DRYVH
2022-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20223153068.8249.6759.245000.2100.21FF36.82735.82222451.6028697945400.6421220714229116325251100DRYVH
2022-08-07 20:00:03FORECAST20223153069.2749.5759.42000.210.010.22FF37.27745.27222451.6028697945400.6581819150409216325251100DRYVH
2022-08-07 16:00:04FORECAST20223153069.1352.1860.655000.230.010.24FF37.13745.13222451.6028697945400.6532144719986416325251100DRYVH
2022-08-07 12:00:03FORECAST20223153067.550.2658.88000.270.010.28FF35.5744.5222451.6028697945400.593641032602441632525250DRYMH
2022-08-07 08:00:04FORECAST20223153064.8150.3157.56000.240.010.25FF32.81738.81222451.6028697945400.491093636837411622525245DRYM
2022-08-07 04:00:07FORECAST20223153067.548.9258.21000.210.010.22FF35.5745.5222451.6028697945400.593641032602441632525250DRYMH
2022-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20223153065.6951.5158.600.00220.102200.1022FF33.69734.69222451.6028697945400.52491086263391632525250DRYMH
2022-08-06 20:00:04FORECAST20223153065.1950.7657.97500.0020.15200.152FF33.19744.19222451.6028697945400.505702914945241632525250DRYMH
2022-08-06 16:00:03FORECAST20223153065.1550.855800.0030.1530.010.163FF33.15743.15222451.6028697945400.504165116434881632525250DRYMH
2022-08-06 12:00:04FORECAST20223153064.1750.757.43500.00110.18110.010.1911FF32.17743.17222451.6028697945400.466525599885451622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 08:00:03FORECAST20223153064.1750.757.43500.00110.18110.020.2011FF32.17738.17222451.6028697945400.466525599885451622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 04:00:08FORECAST20223153063.2349.6256.42500.00110.21110.010.2211FF31.23743.23222451.6028697945400.430697448775141622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 00:00:03FORECAST20223153063.5350.2556.8900.00570.18570.010.1957FF31.53735.53222451.6028697945400.442084488690781622525245DRYM
2022-08-05 20:00:04FORECAST20223153063.550.2856.8900.00570.16570.020.1857FF31.5749.5222451.6028697945400.440943468139051622525245DRYM
2022-08-05 16:00:04FORECAST20223153063.850.2357.01500.00340.133400.1334FF31.8749.8222451.6028697945400.452374180697681622525245DRYM
2022-08-05 12:00:04FORECAST20223153061.2148.1854.69500.00950.089500.0895FF29.21742.21222451.6028697945400.355960682163071622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-05 08:00:05FORECAST20223153060.0548.4654.25500.00980.07980.020.0998FF28.05743.05222451.6028697945400.315231613596551622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-05 04:00:09FORECAST20223153060.3148.4754.3900.00980.08980.010.0998FF28.31744.31222451.6028697945400.324189078645421622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-05 00:00:05FORECAST2022315305947.7753.385000.170.010.18FF27724222451.6028697945400.280190481558591622525245DRYM
2022-08-04 20:00:05FORECAST20223153061.648.6955.145000.170.020.19FF29.6737.6222451.6028697945400.370061593755681622525245DRYM
2022-08-04 16:00:04FORECAST20223153061.5448.6955.115000.170.020.19FF29.54736.54222451.6028697945400.36788026939221622525245DRYM
2022-08-04 12:00:04FORECAST20223153063.1352.9558.04000.250.020.27FF31.13736.13222451.6028697945400.426914054313171622525245DRYM
2022-08-04 08:00:05FORECAST20223153055.6154.7255.165000.040.050.09FF23.61734.61222451.6028697945400.181654688761781612515220DRYL
2022-08-04 04:00:10FORECAST20223153055.4854.9655.22000.040.050.09FF23.48737.48222451.6028697945400.178365292153041612515220DRYL