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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 10, 2022

[ Tuesday, August 9, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 11, 2022 ]

DAY 314 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/11/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.642
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 762

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 221
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-08-11 04:00:05OBSERVATION20223142969.0600251.5400860.3000500000FF37.06002762.06002221451.04588309528 00.6417222028737516 32515150DRYMH
2022-08-11 00:00:01FORECAST20223142952.2452.2452.2400000FF20.24745.24222451.6028697945400.0670073798143881612515220DRYL
2022-08-10 12:00:01FORECAST20223142967.4651.8659.6600.01380.013800.0138FF35.46760.46222451.6028697945400.573808530138331632515225DRYL
2022-08-10 08:00:02FORECAST20223142964.8851.7358.30500.03540.035400.0354FF32.88757.88222451.6028697945400.460447032627741622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-10 04:00:07FORECAST20223142963.1151.5857.34500.03280.032800.0328FF31.11756.11222451.6028697945400.383960152018951622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-10 00:00:03FORECAST20223142965.3851.6358.50500.0780.07800.078FF33.38748.38221451.0458830952800.482452147319771622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-09 20:00:02FORECAST20223142964.1851.657.8900.07990.109900.1099FF32.18756.18221451.0458830952800.429857090200061622525245DRYM
2022-08-09 16:00:01FORECAST20223142963.251.4557.32500.08920.119200.1192FF31.2755.2221451.0458830952800.387768094034961622525245DRYM
2022-08-09 12:00:03FORECAST20223142964.0551.8857.96500.04910.079100.0791FF32.05756.05221451.0458830952800.424216587553691622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-09 08:00:02FORECAST20223142964.1251.7757.94500.04330.073300.0733FF32.12754.12221451.0458830952800.427251929559571622515222.5DRYL
2022-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20223142964.0151.6157.8100.07230.142300.1423FF32.01755.01221451.0458830952800.422484110130551622525245DRYM
2022-08-09 00:00:03FORECAST20223142964.8451.4758.15500.07690.116900.1169FF32.84739.84221451.0458830952800.458690948646941622525245DRYM
2022-08-08 20:00:03FORECAST20223142963.6551.7757.7100.05490.144900.1449FF31.65749.65221451.0458830952800.406963112862031622525245DRYM
2022-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20223142963.3752.3257.84500.07420.144200.1442FF31.37749.37221451.0458830952800.394990117209691622525245DRYM
2022-08-08 12:00:03FORECAST20223142963.3552.2657.80500.10930.189300.1893FF31.35750.35221451.0458830952800.394138539980211622525245DRYM
2022-08-08 08:00:03FORECAST20223142963.9152.6158.2600.11110.171100.1711FF31.91750.91221451.0458830952800.418159541790431622525245DRYM
2022-08-08 04:00:07FORECAST20223142963.9152.4858.19500.09470.154700.1547FF31.91751.91221451.0458830952800.418159541790431622525245DRYM
2022-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20223142964.551.7758.13500.13640.206400.2064FF32.5738.5221451.0458830952800.443800188649731622525245DRYM
2022-08-07 20:00:03FORECAST20223142964.0352.3758.200.13920.20920.010.2192FF32.03748.03221451.0458830952800.423350163621391622525245DRYM
2022-08-07 16:00:03FORECAST20223142963.9752.458.18500.12530.22530.010.2353FF31.97747.97221451.0458830952800.420753130774591622525245DRYM
2022-08-07 12:00:03FORECAST20223142963.9651.8457.900.18330.27330.010.2833FF31.96748.96221451.0458830952800.420320623824741622525245DRYM
2022-08-07 08:00:03FORECAST20223142964.0851.5557.81500.16350.253500.2535FF32.08746.08221451.0458830952800.425516909098781622525245DRYM
2022-08-07 04:00:07FORECAST20223142964.2852.7558.51500.15080.220800.2208FF32.28750.28221451.0458830952800.434205763497811622525245DRYM
2022-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20223142965.153.8759.48500.07970.099700.0997FF33.1741.1221451.0458830952800.470118375253481622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 20:00:04FORECAST20223142964.7853.5959.18500.07860.148600.1486FF32.78750.78221451.0458830952800.456058344122891622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 16:00:03FORECAST20223142964.7553.4759.1100.06580.155800.1558FF32.75749.75221451.0458830952800.4547427575571622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 12:00:03FORECAST20223142964.7253.0358.87500.09670.186700.1867FF32.72750.72221451.0458830952800.453427667198411622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 08:00:03FORECAST20223142963.1553.4258.28500.09640.18640.010.1964FF31.15746.15221451.0458830952800.385651212521161622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 04:00:08FORECAST20223142962.5952.4557.5200.14950.219500.2195FF30.59751.59221451.0458830952800.362187926187981622525245DRYM
2022-08-06 00:00:03FORECAST20223142965.7352.8359.2800.1330.19300.193FF33.73743.73221451.0458830952800.497891626728951622525245DRYM
2022-08-05 20:00:03FORECAST20223142966.7752.7259.74500.09630.176300.1763FF34.77757.77221451.0458830952800.543697975424861632525250DRYMH
2022-08-05 16:00:04FORECAST20223142966.8352.0459.43500.08770.127700.1277FF34.83757.83221451.0458830952800.546328835639051632525250DRYMH
2022-08-05 12:00:04FORECAST20223142965.7653.8959.82500.0170.07700.077FF33.76752.76221451.0458830952800.499215485869081632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 08:00:05FORECAST20223142967.3754.9961.1800.01460.08460.010.0946FF35.37755.37221451.0458830952800.569901534875861632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 04:00:09FORECAST20223142967.3754.9961.1800.0160.08600.086FF35.37756.37221451.0458830952800.569901534875861632515225DRYL
2022-08-05 00:00:04FORECAST20223142962.0750.9456.50500.12210.17210.010.1821FF30.07737.07221451.0458830952800.340852532446691622525245DRYM
2022-08-04 20:00:04FORECAST20223142961.5851.1756.37500.12220.17220.020.1922FF29.58747.58221451.0458830952800.321201852357831622525245DRYM
2022-08-04 16:00:04FORECAST20223142961.5451.1756.35500.12220.18220.010.1922FF29.54746.54221451.0458830952800.319618654180121622525245DRYM
2022-08-04 12:00:04FORECAST20223142963.9953.2958.6400.14210.26210.010.2721FF31.99744.99221451.0458830952800.421618431157871622525245DRYM
2022-08-04 08:00:05FORECAST20223142967.8456.1461.9900.01440.05440.040.0944FF35.84750.84221451.0458830952800.590220632024311632515225DRYL
2022-08-04 04:00:10FORECAST20223142967.9156.262.05500.01440.05440.040.0944FF35.91753.91221451.0458830952800.593227647463061632515225DRYL
2022-08-04 00:00:05FORECAST20223142969.6658.9364.29500.02510.05510.070.1251FF37.66746.66221451.0458830952800.66619637661181632515150DRYMH
2022-08-03 20:00:04FORECAST20223142969.6761.9765.8200.02510.05510.080.1351FF37.67758.67221451.0458830952800.666598712784721632515150DRYMH
2022-08-03 16:00:05FORECAST20223142969.2261.9765.59500.0390.0790.090.169FF37.22765.22221451.0458830952800.648310243840231632515150DRYMH
2022-08-03 12:00:04FORECAST20223142965.9260.4863.200.0030.0030.10.103FF33.92755.92221451.0458830952800.506275858220091632515225DRYL
2022-08-03 08:00:05FORECAST20223142966.3265.7166.0150000.080.08FF34.32751.32221451.0458830952800.523913358196471632515225DRYL
2022-08-03 04:00:11FORECAST20223142966.3166.0366.170000.060.06FF34.31753.31221451.0458830952800.523472847206451632515225DRYL