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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 29, 2022

[ Thursday, July 28, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 30, 2022 ]

DAY 302 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/30/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 81.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 66.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 74.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.969
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 50
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 662

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 209
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 17

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-30 04:00:06OBSERVATION20223021781.6999866.4100674.055020000.030.03FF49.69998661.69998209444.19430662083 00.9694088960225616 52515160DRYH
2022-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20223021768.1668.1668.1600.00380.00380.030.0338FF36.16648.16210444.7772799049200.62261650111671632515150DRYMH
2022-07-29 12:00:01FORECAST20223021781.9665.473.6800.00210.00210.030.0321FF49.96661.96210444.7772799049200.971429430061791652515160DRYH
2022-07-29 08:00:01FORECAST20223021776.7464.6870.7100.00050.00050.030.0305FF44.74656.74210444.7772799049200.903167336249781652515160DRYH
2022-07-29 04:00:09FORECAST20223021774.9364.7869.8550000.030.03FF42.93654.93210444.7772799049200.86243547966171652515160DRYH
2022-07-29 00:00:02FORECAST20223021777.865.2871.540000.030.03FF45.8644.8209444.1943066208300.922485731840891652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 20:00:01FORECAST20223021777.7665.1871.470000.030.03FF45.76655.76209444.1943066208300.921814115529511652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 16:00:01FORECAST20223021777.3365.2271.2750000.030.03FF45.33655.33209444.1943066208300.91431415338441652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20223021778.0965.571.7950000.030.03FF46.09656.09209444.1943066208300.927225007142271652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 08:00:03FORECAST20223021779.2566.1772.710000.030.03FF47.25655.25209444.1943066208300.943997244881891652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 04:00:08FORECAST20223021779.5566.2372.8900.00030.00030.030.0303FF47.55652.55209444.1943066208300.947797694076231652515160DRYH
2022-07-28 00:00:03FORECAST20223021779.4765.7972.630000.030.03FF47.47643.47209444.1943066208300.946804785270111652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20223021779.4766.6273.0450000.030.03FF47.47654.47209444.1943066208300.946804785270111652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20223021779.6265.9972.80500.00020.00020.030.0302FF47.62654.62209444.1943066208300.94865440339521652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 12:00:03FORECAST20223021779.3865.6772.5250000.030.03FF47.38653.38209444.1943066208300.945669990436361652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20223021779.2265.8472.530000.030.03FF47.22650.22209444.1943066208300.943605535612771652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20223021775.865.6370.71500.00030.00030.030.0303FF43.8647.8209444.1943066208300.883274827057491652515160DRYH
2022-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20223021779.4865.8772.675000.010.030.04FF47.48633.48209444.1943066208300.946929708913571652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20223021782.266.4274.31000.010.030.04FF50.2652.2209444.1943066208300.973194914859291652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 16:00:03FORECAST20223021780.7263.5772.145000.010.030.04FF48.72650.72209444.1943066208300.960707214024631652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 12:00:03FORECAST20223021778.166.9972.545000.050.030.08FF46.1648.1209444.1943066208300.927384395806951652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20223021778.0766.8372.45000.050.030.08FF46.07643.07209444.1943066208300.926905429124491652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 04:00:07FORECAST20223021782.266.6474.42000.010.030.04FF50.2652.2209444.1943066208300.973194914859291652515160DRYH
2022-07-26 00:00:04FORECAST20223021783.4763.4473.455000.050.030.08FF51.47645.47209444.1943066208300.981092058297851652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 20:00:04FORECAST20223021783.1663.2173.185000.050.030.08FF51.16656.16209444.1943066208300.979373838416541652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 16:00:04FORECAST20223021782.7263.2172.965000.070.040.11FF50.72655.72209444.1943066208300.976709883259131652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 12:00:04FORECAST20223021780.8164.5472.675000.080.030.11FF48.81657.81209444.1943066208300.961582089415911652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 08:00:04FORECAST20223021777.3164.6670.985000.10.030.13FF45.31654.31209444.1943066208300.9139526875309616525251120DRYVH
2022-07-25 04:00:08FORECAST20223021777.3164.6170.96000.020.030.05FF45.31651.31209444.1943066208300.913952687530961652515160DRYH
2022-07-25 00:00:04FORECAST20223021778.4963.0370.76000.020.030.05FF46.49645.49209444.1943066208300.933394955455121652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 20:00:04FORECAST20223021778.562.9370.715000.020.030.05FF46.5658.5209444.1943066208300.933543866071551652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 16:00:04FORECAST20223021778.2362.9370.58000.020.030.05FF46.23659.23209444.1943066208300.929432274653931652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 12:00:04FORECAST20223021779.8762.5771.2200.00520.01520.030.0452FF47.87662.87209444.1943066208300.951623411984881652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 08:00:04FORECAST20223021779.0361.8970.4600.00520.02520.030.0552FF47.03655.03209444.1943066208300.941074516671431652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 04:00:08FORECAST20223021779.0361.8870.45500.00520.00520.040.0452FF47.03664.03209444.1943066208300.941074516671431652515160DRYH
2022-07-24 00:00:04FORECAST20223021783.1764.8874.0250000.030.03FF51.17665.17209444.1943066208300.979431257722511652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 20:00:04FORECAST20223021783.6464.9374.2850000.030.03FF51.64670.64209444.1943066208300.98198161571581652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 16:00:04FORECAST20223021785.8366.1575.9900.00030.00030.030.0303FF53.83676.83209444.1943066208300.99061340722331652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 12:00:04FORECAST20223021785.9765.8975.930000.030.03FF53.97673.97209444.1943066208300.991014522248021652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 08:00:04FORECAST20223021783.5866.8675.220000.040.04FF51.58661.58209444.1943066208300.981671807753931652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 04:00:09FORECAST20223021787.4966.8677.1750000.030.03FF55.49675.49209444.1943066208300.994493040742881652515160DRYH
2022-07-23 00:00:05FORECAST20223021783.0966.4374.760000.030.03FF51.09651.09209444.1943066208300.978968098276181652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 20:00:04FORECAST20223021783.8867.3975.6350000.030.03FF51.88662.88209444.1943066208300.983176671783461652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 16:00:04FORECAST20223021784.1367.5175.820000.040.04FF52.13662.13209444.1943066208300.984348910031621652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 12:00:05FORECAST20223021774.8264.6469.7300.00780.00780.030.0378FF42.82653.82209444.1943066208300.859630674915681652515160DRYH
2022-07-22 08:00:05FORECAST20223021767.9966.2667.12500.00050.00050.030.0305FF35.99630.99209444.1943066208300.615164536319041632515225DRYL
2022-07-22 04:00:10FORECAST20223021767.6266.467.010000.030.03FF35.62639.62209444.1943066208300.59880126534321632515225DRYL