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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 22, 2022

[ Thursday, July 21, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 23, 2022 ]

DAY 295 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/23/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.281
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 543

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 8 in
SWE DAY: 202
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 10

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-23 04:00:06OBSERVATION20222951058.5699845.5700252.078.1119317391304000.250.25FF26.56998542.56998202443.26996615019 3.5957757074170.2809158017080416 22413212DRYL
2022-07-23 00:00:02FORECAST20222951047.1647.1647.168.9171253333333000.250.25FF15.16531.16203444.171171918993.96073000945520.0371379815403431612413210.5DRYL
2022-07-22 12:00:02FORECAST20222951059.3749.0254.1959.4635386666667000.250.25FF27.37543.37203444.384382610994.20544878770190.310024885781511622413212DRYL
2022-07-22 08:00:02FORECAST20222951055.1647.3651.269.19758533333330.00390.00390.250.2539FF23.16539.16203444.280644481264.08630913956470.173683940804271612413210.5DRYL
2022-07-22 04:00:08FORECAST20222951058.3748.1553.268.71968466666670.00380.00380.250.2538FF26.37542.37203444.094057685593.87236014535880.273851073740051622413212DRYL
2022-07-22 00:00:03FORECAST20222951060.547.2253.869.2992480.00040.00040.250.2504FF28.5525.5202443.735594354574.12640733833050.353215809968541622413212DRYL
2022-07-21 20:00:02FORECAST20222951060.346.9653.6311.4183120.00060.00060.250.2506FF28.3538.3202444.563143222745.07616067301790.34541204244572162241228DRYL
2022-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20222951060.2147.3553.7811.4243253333330.00060.00060.250.2506FF28.21538.21202444.565485251565.0788607354850.34192142218654162241228DRYL
2022-07-21 12:00:03FORECAST20222951060.9845.6553.3159.44757866666670.00020.00020.250.2502FF28.98538.98202443.79366637934.19277557488690.372192794397441622413212DRYL
2022-07-21 08:00:03FORECAST20222951061.4247.8254.628.85001733333330.00020.00020.250.2502FF29.42539.42202443.55958529453.92551001822240.389866599094781622413212DRYL
2022-07-21 04:00:08FORECAST20222951060.8646.8153.8358.07229508333330.00020.00020.250.2502FF28.86538.86202443.254397662243.57808029491480.367417267706051622413212DRYL
2022-07-21 00:00:03FORECAST20222951061.0147.254.1058.9182786666667000.250.25FF29.01521.01202443.586343100283.95602662049590.373389785616531622413212DRYL
2022-07-20 20:00:02FORECAST20222951061.346.9454.1211.1113613333330.00870.00870.250.2587FF29.3533.3202444.44354680684.93837284083860.385022117178761622413212DRYL
2022-07-20 16:00:02FORECAST20222951061.7846.7954.28511.096437333333000.250.25FF29.78533.78202444.437729628914.93167541539610.404500145314491622413212DRYL
2022-07-20 12:00:04FORECAST20222951061.4646.8754.1658.950388000.250.25FF29.46533.46202443.598928055043.97038252247670.391485276023051622413212DRYL
2022-07-20 08:00:03FORECAST20222951060.6146.8353.728.3980906666667000.250.25FF28.61532.61202443.382317176643.72356489964620.357534579816541622413212DRYL
2022-07-20 04:00:07FORECAST20222951060.6146.8153.717.8566002121212000.250.25FF28.61529.61202443.169649540363.48180676258450.357534579816541622413212DRYL
2022-07-20 00:00:04FORECAST20222951060.646.8153.7058.493412000.250.25FF28.6517.6202443.419723880213.76614640384090.357141200110351622413212DRYL
2022-07-19 20:00:03FORECAST20222951062.5847.1554.86510.660965333333000.250.25FF30.58529.58202444.267891271844.73632458756220.437472289977861622413212DRYL
2022-07-19 16:00:04FORECAST20222951062.4547.454.92510.629914666667000.250.25FF30.45530.45202444.255774030344.72240096811640.432078300353861622413212DRYL
2022-07-19 12:00:03FORECAST20222951058.947.7153.3058.6428360.00890.00890.250.2589FF26.9525.9202443.478343729683.83291059440730.292763361145911622413212DRYL
2022-07-19 08:00:03FORECAST20222951059.7747.9653.8658.11765333333330.02170.02170.250.2717FF27.77522.77202443.272213348833.59833016026520.325054611328211622413212DRYL
2022-07-19 04:00:08FORECAST20222951065.4147.6256.5157.8890210303030.01090.01090.260.2709FF33.41526.41202443.182390886523.49627520196370.5560465781661632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-19 00:00:03FORECAST20222951065.2147.1656.1858.1588000.220.22FF33.21520.21202443.288373046083.61670117800840.54770677254211632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-18 20:00:03FORECAST20222951065.3946.8656.1259.069912000.220.22FF33.39530.39202443.645765355554.02382805094750.555213651252871632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-18 16:00:03FORECAST20222951065.3948.3256.8558.9052013333333000.220.22FF33.39531.39202443.581217266883.95018004744670.555213651252871632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-18 12:00:03FORECAST20222951065.2549.6757.467.3603213333333000.220.22FF33.25534.25202442.974481468523.2604345260750.549376538824411632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-18 08:00:04FORECAST20222951060.3148.4754.397.217368000.230.23FF28.31529.31202442.918217571383.19670377011670.345800708158941622413212DRYL
2022-07-18 04:00:07FORECAST20222951065.5248.557.017.04914000.230.23FF33.52531.52202442.851979841483.12172560517980.560623155431361632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-18 00:00:04FORECAST20222951066.5649.8758.2158.3503000.240.24FF34.56532.56202443.363559400373.70221873006090.603410496661461632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-17 20:00:04FORECAST20222951064.9349.3357.139.29536000.260.26FF32.93548.93202443.734071893384.12466794251480.535996415085241632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-17 16:00:03FORECAST20222951064.9350.7757.859.5827426666667000.280.28FF32.93543.93202443.84656455474.25326741161180.535996415085241632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-17 12:00:06FORECAST20222951063.6246.9655.298.7693026666667000.270.27FF31.62544.62202443.527939911493.8894307462070.480959423534041622413212DRYL
2022-07-17 08:00:05FORECAST20222951065.3949.4957.448.49668000.260.26FF33.39536.39202443.421006172413.7676063947250.555213651252871632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-17 04:00:08FORECAST20222951065.3749.4857.4257.6944661904762000.270.27FF33.37545.37202443.10591530063.40946348408050.554380480494051632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-17 00:00:04FORECAST20222951066.2449.0657.659.6121186666667000.270.27FF34.24531.24202443.858058829124.26641633262190.590352071266811632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-16 20:00:04FORECAST20222951064.5347.5556.0410.988990666667000.290.29FF32.53542.53202444.395841829374.88346175816840.519215607856431632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST20222951064.5547.5356.0410.726918666667000.260.26FF32.55540.55202444.293625792424.76590158799370.520055706370631632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-16 12:00:04FORECAST20222951067.949.3258.619.3070066666667000.270.27FF35.9541.9202443.738632444634.12987841041970.656690391009771632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-16 08:00:04FORECAST20222951065.1348.7356.938.897608000.270.27FF33.13534.13202443.578240881533.94678530469340.544364736774641632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-16 04:00:09FORECAST20222951065.0548.8556.958.00916375000.270.27FF33.05541.05202443.229597696913.54989842680120.541019558874311632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-16 00:00:04FORECAST20222951068.6854.1461.417.6519013333333000.280.28FF36.68532.68202443.089178874113.39047467861240.686401787587841632413127DRYL
2022-07-15 20:00:04FORECAST20222951070.5654.2162.3859.6318933333333000.270.27FF38.56556.56202443.865795800044.27526799946110.752976097558361642413130DRYL
2022-07-15 16:00:04FORECAST20222951070.6254.1762.39510.383833333333000.280.28FF38.62548.62202444.159709211974.61208039383890.754969337384271642413130DRYL
2022-07-15 12:00:03FORECAST20222951065.7255.8160.7658.459676000.270.27FF33.72554.72202443.406485984693.7510752077290.568923065622361632413213.5DRYL
2022-07-15 08:00:04FORECAST20222951062.359.2760.7858.365212000.290.29FF30.3552.3202443.369412585923.70887913059670.425870223263561622413212DRYL
2022-07-15 04:00:10FORECAST20222951060.659.2559.9258.4164541666667000.290.29FF28.6554.6202443.389524221653.73176760859160.357141200110351622413212DRYL