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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 19, 2022

[ Monday, July 18, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 20, 2022 ]

DAY 292 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/20/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.815
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 497

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 17 in
SWE DAY: 199
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 7

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 1
HSdry: 18.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-20 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022292770.2100452.8999861.5550116.69466954545500.030.380.41FF38.21004497.21004199444.86980859535 7.4269544452490.8147907006521716 42312118DRYL
2022-07-20 00:00:02FORECAST2022292755.6455.6455.6417.87076800.030.380.41FF23.64482.64200445.904952011417.9686639474470.22308906097376161231226DRYL
2022-07-19 12:00:01FORECAST2022292766.8754.660.73517.9110773333330.00110.03110.380.4111FF34.87493.87200445.920513335167.98691679886580.69695693274569163231228DRYL
2022-07-19 08:00:01FORECAST2022292765.1954.2659.72517.3407400.030.380.41FF33.19492.19200445.700187664687.72877107224440.62724342144088163231228DRYL
2022-07-19 04:00:07FORECAST2022292763.8454.3559.09517.1775983636360.00860.03860.380.4186FF31.84490.84200445.637106074567.65497522408210.56788706420196163231228DRYL
2022-07-19 00:00:02FORECAST2022292765.6650.558.0817.446612000.380.38FF33.66484.66199445.161807197857.76656532739970.64729391183185163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 20:00:02FORECAST2022292765.9153.4659.68518.518936000.380.38FF33.91491.91199445.577254631168.25161666157010.65779880423801163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 16:00:01FORECAST2022292765.4452.8759.15518.5464333333330.00080.00080.380.3808FF33.44491.44199445.587892971678.26406615113960.63795549798064163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 12:00:02FORECAST2022292765.5452.5359.03517.1832106666670.00140.00140.380.3814FF33.54491.54199445.059585139547.6475526106720.64221080591467163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 08:00:02FORECAST2022292766.0152.9959.516.8100560.00140.01140.380.3914FF34.01493.01199444.91465235617.47904022132660.66196737232057163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 04:00:06FORECAST2022292766.1453.259.6716.7475533333330.00260.01260.380.3926FF34.14493.14199444.890362967947.45082508129160.66735691293579163231228DRYL
2022-07-18 00:00:03FORECAST2022292766.9552.9759.9618.4365186666670.00080.02080.380.4008FF34.95488.95199445.545364045718.21430542107550.70012807171706164231229DRYL
2022-07-17 20:00:03FORECAST2022292766.915359.95519.4674053333330.00080.04080.380.4208FF34.91502.91199445.943775528918.68136823409830.69854437710642163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 16:00:02FORECAST2022292766.2951.4958.8919.7288213333330.00080.06080.380.4408FF34.29500.29199446.044640460698.79993501833990.67353287371387163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 12:00:04FORECAST2022292766.0851.4358.75518.69988533333300.050.380.43FF34.08500.08199445.647247801138.33355243299670.66487364276143163241229DRYL
2022-07-17 08:00:03FORECAST2022292766.085259.0418.46864533333300.040.380.42FF34.08497.08199445.557795940848.22884890873310.66487364276143163231228DRYL
2022-07-17 04:00:07FORECAST2022292766.2352.2159.2217.75668619047600.050.380.43FF34.23498.23199445.282054674457.90673371110470.671068070032163231228DRYL
2022-07-17 00:00:03FORECAST2022292765.751.3658.5319.90514133333300.050.380.43FF33.7482.7199446.112634081958.87993503198690.64898250966287163231228DRYL
2022-07-16 20:00:03FORECAST202229276851.2359.61520.91826133333300.070.380.45FF36497199446.50273013789.34006079506930.740283473049821642312118DRYL
2022-07-16 16:00:03FORECAST2022292767.4951.7459.61520.78164933333300.040.380.42FF35.49496.49199446.450187005319.27797123114550.72112925834015164231229DRYL
2022-07-16 12:00:03FORECAST2022292769.2951.4560.3719.36064400.050.380.43FF37.29498.29199445.902563396548.63296078860780.785525502298511642312118DRYL
2022-07-16 08:00:03FORECAST2022292765.3652.4758.91518.85410266666700.040.390.43FF33.36493.36199445.706875356088.40340318720280.63453890688366163231228DRYL
2022-07-16 04:00:08FORECAST2022292769.7253.4161.56517.97205441666700.030.40.43FF37.72499.72199445.365519246018.00413334719630.79952390663171642412120DRYL
2022-07-16 00:00:03FORECAST2022292771.6852.261.9418.65318533333300.040.40.44FF39.68484.68199445.629186813018.31240381156580.856112701814911652312120DRYL
2022-07-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022292771.1353.0262.07520.35579866666700.030.40.43FF39.13503.13199446.286281066269.08451368508010.841441745866321642412120DRYL
2022-07-15 16:00:03FORECAST2022292768.8854.4161.64520.38985600.030.410.44FF36.88494.88199446.299395938769.09998041607830.771664647666851642312118DRYL
2022-07-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022292772.4654.6263.5418.33695866666700.020.410.43FF40.46501.46199445.50683136788.1692403525090.875305857821411652412122DRYL
2022-07-15 08:00:04FORECAST2022292768.7455.2762.00517.96599066666700.030.420.45FF36.74498.74199445.363169903298.00139055375950.766819027143051642312118DRYL
2022-07-15 04:00:09FORECAST2022292773.255.564.3517.53753283333300.040.410.45FF41.2503.2199445.197076317977.80765834323040.891794364800951652412122DRYL
2022-07-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022292773.555.6764.58518.56887466666700.020.40.42FF41.5490.5199445.596574664628.27422694684330.898012356287721652312120DRYL
2022-07-14 20:00:04FORECAST2022292773.5155.1264.31520.74643200.020.40.42FF41.51502.51199446.436638906669.26196737138550.898215063385421652412122DRYL
2022-07-14 16:00:04FORECAST2022292771.8854.126320.66273733333300.020.40.42FF39.88504.88199446.404436728129.22393762054770.861213653005181652412122DRYL
2022-07-14 12:00:04FORECAST2022292772.3755.1263.74518.57649333333300.020.40.42FF40.37502.37199445.599521922648.27767654833240.873187058978231652412122DRYL
2022-07-14 08:00:04FORECAST2022292770.5455.362.9218.06175200.030.410.44FF38.54505.54199445.40026750228.04470917235840.824652805373521642412120DRYL
2022-07-14 04:00:08FORECAST2022292770.5855.362.9417.27762400.020.410.43FF38.58507.58199445.096233384577.69020536423480.825825364960431642412120DRYL
2022-07-14 00:00:04FORECAST2022292771.4253.4362.42517.65955200.030.40.43FF39.42505.42199445.24439600087.86281656388480.849295112731361652412122DRYL
2022-07-13 20:00:04FORECAST2022292771.3953.4262.40519.5778800.020.40.42FF39.39523.39199445.986409322638.73146840334940.848494886776531642412120DRYL
2022-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2022292772.5856.5364.55518.366685333333000.40.4FF40.58530.58199445.518337491368.18269511493360.878092368742111652412122DRYL
2022-07-13 12:00:04FORECAST2022292775.1557.166.12517.633113333333000.390.39FF43.15523.15199445.234144189587.85086412436460.927633137757631652412122DRYL
2022-07-13 08:00:04FORECAST2022292775.1757.8366.517.154834666667000.40.4FF43.17518.17199445.048568763537.6347346157750.92794677242361652412122DRYL
2022-07-13 04:00:08FORECAST2022292775.1657.8366.49516.96020575000.380.38FF43.16526.16199444.97298683937.54683340998660.92779008515141652412122DRYL
2022-07-13 00:00:04FORECAST2022292770.2451.6160.92519.161705333333000.380.38FF38.24505.24199445.825739043218.54278144156150.815700101615871642412120DRYL
2022-07-12 20:00:04FORECAST2022292772.2354.3863.30521.263385333333000.380.38FF40.23525.23199446.635389095569.49698038184210.869841709538341652412122DRYL
2022-07-12 16:00:04FORECAST2022292772.3454.3963.36521.910256000.380.38FF40.34526.34199446.883720573829.79133672000490.872475271164531652412122DRYL
2022-07-12 12:00:04FORECAST2022292756.2448.9852.6120.7320253333330.00060.00060.380.3806FF24.24515.24199446.431096316579.2554207984230.24398677240982161241227DRYL
2022-07-12 08:00:05FORECAST2022292752.6149.8451.22521.0499666666670.00020.00020.380.3802FF20.61497.61199446.553368830069.39993352876040.13421626332863161231226DRYL
2022-07-12 04:00:07FORECAST2022292750.6449.9550.29520.9723090833330.00020.00020.380.3802FF18.64501.64199446.523512722999.36462912180230.091578272027244161241227DRYL