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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 14, 2022

[ Wednesday, July 13, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, July 15, 2022 ]

DAY 287 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/15/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.713
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 513

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 31 in
SWE DAY: 194
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 13.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-15 04:00:06OBSERVATION2022287267.1300645.3599656.2450131.105580833333000.380.38FF35.13006513.13006194447.54013562458 13.9209958648310.7126769299166616 4241125DRYL
2022-07-15 00:00:01FORECAST2022287249.6749.6749.6732.9034040.00090.00090.380.3809FF17.67495.67195448.792869258814.7668130895410.12614269856728161231123DRYL
2022-07-14 12:00:02FORECAST2022287262.8351.4857.15533.1078773333330.00290.00290.380.3829FF30.83508.83195448.8702897698114.8611424922770.55611472497533163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-14 08:00:02FORECAST2022287262.848.7155.75532.6894040.00190.00190.380.3819FF30.8508.8195448.7117985554114.6681212625440.55495685526323163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-14 04:00:06FORECAST2022287261.9145.853.85532.140725333333000.380.38FF29.91507.91195448.5037383942414.4152354667030.5204361139579163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-14 00:00:02FORECAST2022287264.5445.7155.12532.9037893333330.0020.0020.380.382FF32.54495.54194448.2253307372214.7483118564410.62102788934371163231124DRYL
2022-07-13 20:00:01FORECAST2022287264.7247.8156.26535.005196000.380.38FF32.72507.72194449.0221018969515.7181066852350.62769946127159163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-13 16:00:01FORECAST2022287264.7847.6256.235.01192000.380.38FF32.78507.78194449.024644554915.7212149331850.62991494393287163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2022287264.7347.4956.1133.457528000.380.38FF32.73507.73194448.4356996165715.0035499761210.62806900416906163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-13 08:00:03FORECAST2022287265.0347.4556.2433.11269066666700.010.380.39FF33.03508.03194448.3047284552314.8445757977420.63909906641088163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-13 04:00:06FORECAST2022287264.5547.8356.1933.21145775000.380.38FF32.55508.55194448.3422524734114.890099775560.62139950022541163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-13 00:00:03FORECAST2022287265.0148.1856.59535.1588666666670.00030.00030.380.3803FF33.01489.01194449.0802010987415.789150913070.6383671983718163231124DRYL
2022-07-12 20:00:02FORECAST2022287264.8848.0456.4637.234470666667000.380.38FF32.88506.88194449.8627196175816.7504002376280.63359782461762163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-12 16:00:02FORECAST2022287265.3348.0456.68537.1756493333330.00030.00030.380.3803FF33.33507.33194449.840600279716.7231164118940.65001468662441163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-12 12:00:04FORECAST2022287265.5348.3656.94534.901024000.380.38FF33.53507.53194448.9827040575715.6699561298980.65722418842529163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-12 08:00:04FORECAST2022287265.8248.5857.234.233325333333000.380.38FF33.82505.82194448.729932798815.3615177763060.66757651314489163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-12 04:00:06FORECAST2022287264.9148.5856.74533.86177975000.380.38FF32.91505.91194448.5890907128315.1900249879710.63470031268061163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2022287264.548.3356.41534.087348000.380.38FF32.5491.5194448.6746129041115.2941276688280.61954033042858163231124DRYL
2022-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2022287267.4848.958.1937.048534666667000.380.38FF35.48507.48194449.7927884376216.6641637152480.72421601977484164241125DRYL
2022-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2022287267.1447.357.2237.1138066666670.00380.00380.380.3838FF35.14506.14194449.8173412271916.694433837620.71300782134591164241125DRYL
2022-07-11 12:00:04FORECAST2022287265.347.4256.3634.5955866666670.00080.00080.380.3808FF33.3505.3194448.8671275801515.5288216140170.64892850691175163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2022287262.7346.8354.7834.0228986666670.00110.00110.380.3811FF30.73502.73194448.6501825136715.2643796964440.55225335216736163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-11 04:00:08FORECAST2022287265.548.4656.9833.593071583333000.380.38FF33.5501.5194448.4871484338615.0660608815440.65614632668096163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-11 00:00:04FORECAST2022287264.9948.3156.6535.963732000.380.38FF32.99495.99194449.3841312603716.1615304617010.63763482403535163231124DRYL
2022-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2022287264.9948.5256.75536.992104000.380.38FF32.99503.99194449.7715581328816.6379962546940.63763482403535163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2022287265.0249.6857.3536.857514666667000.380.38FF33.02506.02194449.7209107453716.5755950637040.63873319583105163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2022287269.0350.9559.9935.1380840.03470.03470.380.4147FF37.03507.03194449.0723449958115.779541780540.772427041877791642411110DRYL
2022-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST202228726651.0758.53534.9055320.04740.04740.380.4274FF34505194448.984409198515.6720396627790.67393904324795163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 04:00:07FORECAST2022287268.9550.0859.51534.2623706376810.05260.05260.380.4326FF36.95510.95194448.7409374254715.3749283183720.770060504605051642411110DRYL
2022-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2022287272.3949.5260.95535.8407893333330.00140.00140.380.3814FF40.39502.39194449.3377463184916.1046195053160.858879275992871652411111DRYL
2022-07-09 20:00:04FORECAST2022287270.9648.9759.96537.0437666666670.00140.00140.380.3814FF38.96509.96194449.7909947417916.6619526579830.825231831749611642411110DRYL
2022-07-09 16:00:04FORECAST2022287270.5551.0160.7837.0680386666670.00140.00140.380.3814FF38.55508.55194449.8001255108416.6732084447070.814716775649891642411110DRYL
2022-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2022287268.4747.1657.81536.543621333333000.380.38FF36.47501.47194449.6027220685916.430111625710.755576227089951642411110DRYL
2022-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2022287267.6247.2957.45536.387712000.380.38FF35.62493.62194449.5439832772616.3578769948260.72876788467027164231124.5DRYL
2022-07-09 04:00:08FORECAST2022287267.5147.3557.4335.741441833333000.380.38FF35.51498.51194449.3002529953216.0586388581340.72519456790278164231124.5DRYL
2022-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2022287267.1148.9258.01538.314113333333000.380.38FF35.11491.11194450.2681249984417.2516239715780.71200860648989164231124.5DRYL
2022-07-08 20:00:04FORECAST2022287272.7355.0963.9136.695726666667000.40.4FF40.73527.73194449.6600052917716.5006006471190.866187210660771652411111DRYL
2022-07-08 16:00:04FORECAST2022287272.7354.9563.8436.695726666667000.410.41FF40.73527.73194449.6600052917716.5006006471190.866187210660771652411111DRYL
2022-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2022287269.953.6561.77535.354097333333000.410.41FF37.9525.9194449.1539804430815.8794335422390.797262774528991642411110DRYL
2022-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2022287270.553.8262.1635.038233333333000.40.4FF38.5518.5194449.034594435815.733378894580.813408165625531642411110DRYL
2022-07-08 04:00:08FORECAST2022287270.4953.8262.15534.659528521739000.40.4FF38.49526.49194448.8913303880415.5583618687460.81314576005491642411110DRYL
2022-07-08 00:00:04FORECAST2022287268.5953.4461.01533.943916000.40.4FF36.59515.59194448.6202376126515.2279276614240.759242672817511642411110DRYL
2022-07-07 20:00:04FORECAST2022287267.452.6560.02535.857833333333000.450.45FF35.4527.4194449.3441777007116.1125086332960.7215982264398164241125DRYL
2022-07-07 16:00:04FORECAST2022287267.3652.6359.99536.173424000.440.44FF35.36526.36194449.4632123759516.2586233536770.72028480953892164241125DRYL
2022-07-07 12:00:04FORECAST2022287262.2255.0458.6334.94440800.010.440.45FF30.22523.22194448.9991131484815.6900082014990.53249096793304163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2022287257.2555.956.57535.030726666667000.450.45FF25.25515.25194449.0317560019815.7299087091590.34310502302936162241124DRYL
2022-07-07 04:00:08FORECAST2022287257.1156.3656.73535.045571757576000.460.46FF25.11525.11194449.0373692011915.7367713441730.33809017266431162241124DRYL