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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 13, 2022

[ Tuesday, July 12, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 14, 2022 ]

DAY 286 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/14/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.456
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 526

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 35 in
SWE DAY: 193
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 15.54 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-14 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022286161.2199444.9999653.1099534.671846666667000.380.38FF29.21994526.21994193448.32870011011 15.5443839464840.4564120364726716 2241124DRYL
2022-07-14 00:00:01FORECAST2022286146.2146.2146.2135.9223186666670.00140.00140.380.3814FF14.21511.21194449.3685080742516.1423587458080.060459323373553161241123.5DRYL
2022-07-13 12:00:01FORECAST2022286158.2547.755336.440742666667000.380.38FF26.25523.25194449.5639651743816.3824447671260.34661753498052162241124DRYL
2022-07-13 08:00:02FORECAST2022286157.5646.5752.06536.1272840.00540.00540.380.3854FF25.56522.56194449.4458152181516.2372566089980.32251346189368162241124DRYL
2022-07-13 04:00:06FORECAST2022286158.6647.4553.05536.24562175000.380.38FF26.66523.66194449.490430557516.2920601262320.36124793393338162241124DRYL
2022-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2022286159.6147.753.65538.22020.00020.00020.380.3802FF27.61503.61193449.6707022398317.1865041737470.39590378754198162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 20:00:01FORECAST2022286159.648.353.9540.282082666667000.380.38FF27.6521.6193450.4449767679418.1448617909510.39553412249578162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 16:00:01FORECAST2022286159.8848.0353.95540.276014666667000.380.38FF27.88521.88193450.4427040674418.1420369555130.40591909064473162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 12:00:03FORECAST2022286159.5348.2953.9138.013306666667000.380.38FF27.53521.53193449.5927859288417.0905084466340.39294911512936162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 08:00:03FORECAST2022286159.5248.8554.18537.332433333333000.380.38FF27.52519.52193449.3360788107416.7748092064630.39258021042607162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 04:00:06FORECAST2022286159.8648.9454.436.907150416667000.380.38FF27.86520.86193449.1755105897716.577788132820.40517501397584162241124DRYL
2022-07-12 00:00:03FORECAST2022286159.4348.3753.937.092702666667000.380.38FF27.43507.43193449.245588330216.6637330322440.38926444641607162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2022286160.1448.6154.37540.243801333333000.380.38FF28.14520.14193450.4306383426218.1270411239070.41562207779225162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2022286159.1948.5653.87540.2437466666670.00020.00020.380.3802FF27.19519.19193450.4306178660118.127015676310.38046233588514162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2022286158.9448.1453.5437.5913746666670.00020.00020.380.3802FF26.94519.94193449.4337588078116.8948328151930.37135886552493162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2022286159.5948.7854.18536.957077333333000.380.38FF27.59519.59193449.1943697961216.6009110622530.39516455138794162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 04:00:07FORECAST2022286159.4848.8754.17536.69797425000.380.38FF27.48516.48193449.0964711633116.4809307345170.39110555935019162241124DRYL
2022-07-11 00:00:04FORECAST2022286159.6748.7154.1939.046276000.380.38FF27.67510.67193449.9813957821717.5700977745760.39812373279201162241124DRYL
2022-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2022286161.3249.1555.23540.071860.00070.00070.380.3807FF29.32519.32193450.3662198370518.0470121100390.46022156482173162241124DRYL
2022-07-10 16:00:03FORECAST2022286163.9249.5256.7239.970726666667000.380.38FF31.92520.92193450.3283166882717.9999500566070.55946600314428163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2022286160.6949.2754.9838.589464000.380.38FF28.69517.69193449.8096658487917.3579139071240.43631089594648162241124DRYL
2022-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2022286160.750.155.438.263596000.380.38FF28.7518.7193449.6870400382517.2066432264590.43668885379704162241124DRYL
2022-07-10 04:00:06FORECAST2022286164.6950.2457.46537.624042637681000.380.38FF32.69521.69193449.4460775275116.9099783842340.58842809083834163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2022286164.0249.556.7639.5099613333330.00170.00170.380.3817FF32.02510.02193450.1555059577317.7856266343770.56324879707768163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST2022286163.6947.8255.75540.650509333333000.380.38FF31.69518.69193450.5829011840318.3164244300220.55074551562344163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2022286162.8250.5756.69540.699709333333000.380.38FF30.82517.82193450.6013099569518.3393423404670.51757233986879163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2022286159.1147.6853.39539.819466666667000.380.38FF27.11513.11193450.2716086955917.92957531340.37754174440782162241124DRYL
2022-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2022286156.1647.7651.9639.595497333333000.380.38FF24.16506.16193450.1876016525517.8254019807330.27591078484078162241124DRYL
2022-07-09 04:00:07FORECAST2022286158.4647.6153.03538.943213833333000.380.38FF26.46511.46193449.942668891417.5222135673780.35408422755949162241124DRYL
2022-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2022286162.6848.7455.7141.581977333333000.380.38FF30.68503.68193450.9310309515618.7506039079240.51221667292593163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-08 20:00:03FORECAST202228616653.7659.8840.758334666667000.40.4FF34535193450.6232423283618.3666529193980.63653389114756163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-08 16:00:04FORECAST2022286165.954.5660.2340.752266666667000.410.41FF33.9534.9193450.6209723754318.3638260318360.63292612764877163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2022286165.015459.50539.090946666667000.410.41FF33.01536.01193449.9981781916217.5908547837860.6003333286569163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2022286163.3554.6258.98538.802252000.40.4FF31.35528.35193449.8896843114917.4567329028550.53781056114465163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-08 04:00:07FORECAST2022286165.9854.6260.338.423601855072000.40.4FF33.98535.98193449.7472637506517.2809097977630.63581329424329163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-08 00:00:04FORECAST2022286166.2655.9761.11537.606090666667000.40.4FF34.26527.26193449.4393081702716.9016553722150.64585689682434163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-07 20:00:04FORECAST2022286166.1255.0860.638.850177333333000.450.45FF34.12540.12193449.9077005619517.4789939504640.64084725756868163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-07 16:00:04FORECAST2022286166.0455.0660.5538.438810666667000.440.44FF34.04539.04193449.7529868368217.2879699077880.63797363494028163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-07 12:00:04FORECAST2022286167.0556.1261.58536.5836426666670.00560.00560.440.4456FF35.05541.05193449.0532520127816.428003709940.67363313266318163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2022286166.9257.2462.0836.1103386666670.00480.00480.450.4548FF34.92537.92193448.8742020146216.2089994534780.6691229653105163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-07 04:00:08FORECAST2022286166.9257.2462.0835.7234384242420.00480.00480.460.4648FF34.92547.92193448.7276784119716.0300955890030.6691229653105163241124.5DRYL
2022-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2022286169.1558.6763.9135.5375240.00370.01370.30.3137FF37.15542.15193448.6572192299215.9441666961560.742637221848861642411110DRYL
2022-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2022286169.1559.6964.4238.355720.00250.01250.380.3925FF37.15550.15193449.721717066617.2494002577260.742637221848861642411110DRYL
2022-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2022286169.2659.6264.4438.8826520.00110.01110.390.4011FF37.26552.26193449.9199073000117.4940791834190.746031799850231642411110DRYL
2022-07-06 12:00:04FORECAST2022286163.0957.9860.53538.43203466666700.10.380.48FF31.09547.09193449.7504370507117.2848243880810.52789133431346163242129DRYL
2022-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2022286163.5361.7862.65538.54459333333300.10.440.54FF31.53545.53193449.7927868104217.3370800518740.54466434178556163242129DRYL
2022-07-06 04:00:07FORECAST2022286163.5562.1862.86538.16918489855100.10.470.57FF31.55548.55193449.6514936863917.1628310024250.54542509085981163242129DRYL