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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 12, 2022

[ Monday, July 11, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 13, 2022 ]

DAY 285 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/13/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.804
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 531

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 38 in
SWE DAY: 192
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.27 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 0

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-07-13 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022285072.6900852.3900462.5400638.453007083333000.380.38FF40.69008530.69008192449.19431946892 17.2728723483310.8042060456444116 42411110DRYL
2022-07-13 00:00:01FORECAST2022285051.8451.8451.8440.8915413333330.00040.00040.380.3804FF19.84509.84193450.6730642441418.4287162343590.13428134670489161241123.5DRYL
2022-07-12 12:00:02FORECAST2022285070.3253.5961.95540.795785333333000.380.38FF38.32528.32193450.6372513184518.3841005679910.736818228494891642411110DRYL
2022-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2022285068.2553.9361.0940.114529333333000.380.38FF36.25526.25193450.3822086974318.0668703220040.66955544256272163241119DRYL
2022-07-12 04:00:05FORECAST2022285068.8353.8561.3439.71575975000.380.38FF36.83526.83193450.2327159567417.8813343785280.6890955632213163241119DRYL
2022-07-12 00:00:02FORECAST2022285069.0353.5661.29539.8223733333330.00080.00080.380.3808FF37.03514.03192449.710647656417.9085453029480.69571544056328163241119DRYL
2022-07-11 20:00:01FORECAST2022285069.253.6161.40543.015073333333000.380.38FF37.2526.2192450.9075234192119.3958201864290.701292503445241642411110DRYL
2022-07-11 16:00:01FORECAST2022285069.45461.742.9651626666670.00130.00130.380.3813FF37.4526.4192450.8888875470219.372514398050.707793639822561642411110DRYL
2022-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2022285069.854.3262.0640.3283706666670.00150.00150.380.3815FF37.8526.8192449.9009831968918.1437736136620.720594726281681642411110DRYL
2022-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST202228507054.2162.10539.708560.00190.00190.380.3819FF38526192449.6678020163117.8556608964330.726891599924041642411110DRYL
2022-07-11 04:00:07FORECAST2022285070.0554.3962.2239.4868489166670.00220.00220.380.3822FF38.05523.05192449.5843021153517.7526674129340.728454770757151642411110DRYL
2022-07-11 00:00:03FORECAST2022285070.2654.2562.25541.8801413333330.00130.00130.380.3813FF38.26517.26192450.483172847418.8662989471380.734971100901611642411110DRYL
2022-07-10 20:00:02FORECAST2022285069.9154.0661.98542.9250226666670.00110.00110.380.3811FF37.91523.91192450.8738981767319.3537722990450.724066715258511642411110DRYL
2022-07-10 16:00:02FORECAST2022285069.3253.561.4143.015168000.380.38FF37.32523.32192450.9075587640419.3958643927050.705201079793871642411110DRYL
2022-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2022285069.0253.3461.1841.5104680.00090.00090.380.3809FF37.02523.02192450.3446878234118.6940187528640.69538593971291163241119DRYL
2022-07-10 08:00:02FORECAST2022285069.3253.6261.4741.237080.00050.00050.380.3805FF37.32524.32192450.2421890163818.5666731678440.705201079793871642411110DRYL
2022-07-10 04:00:06FORECAST2022285069.3553.6261.48540.7260479710150.00050.00050.380.3805FF37.35523.35192450.0504015795318.3287742441020.706174530959311642411110DRYL
2022-07-10 00:00:03FORECAST2022285069.8353.6861.75542.6441653333330.00110.00110.380.3811FF37.83511.83192450.768975624919.2226667236860.721543731226461642411110DRYL
2022-07-09 20:00:03FORECAST202228507254.4663.2343.7314680.00210.00210.380.3821FF40521192451.1747539641619.7305343153920.785747941456421642411110DRYL
2022-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2022285071.9154.2663.08543.7923666666670.00180.00180.380.3818FF39.91520.91192451.1974480534219.759004084220.783268326973841642411110DRYL
2022-07-09 12:00:03FORECAST2022285072.455463.22542.5941826666670.00040.00040.380.3804FF40.45520.45192450.7502952767319.1993404140710.797896490891941642411110DRYL
2022-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2022285068.0254.0461.0342.315382666667000.380.38FF36.02516.02192450.6460540140619.0692602228280.6616730624942163241119DRYL
2022-07-09 04:00:07FORECAST2022285074.1556.1565.1541.755157833333000.380.38FF42.15519.15192450.4363667539218.8080415876830.83995045961451642411110DRYL
2022-07-09 00:00:03FORECAST2022285072.5954.9563.7744.622428000.380.38FF40.59506.59192451.5064233983120.1473128696280.801590469361761642411110DRYL
2022-07-08 20:00:03FORECAST2022285075.8959.5267.70544.297509333333000.40.4FF43.89534.89192451.3855558750619.9952558743070.876611637350431652411111DRYL
2022-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2022285075.7459.2767.50544.310465333333000.410.41FF43.74534.74192451.3903773282220.0013176664020.873703969743441652411111DRYL
2022-07-08 12:00:03FORECAST2022285076.6361.0968.8642.731637333333000.410.41FF44.63536.63192450.8016613999319.2634931042060.890271124228311652411111DRYL
2022-07-08 08:00:04FORECAST2022285074.0962.0168.0542.45404000.40.4FF42.09531.09192450.6979061948819.1339469375140.838571021712221642411110DRYL
2022-07-08 04:00:07FORECAST2022285076.1862.0169.09542.146839188406000.40.4FF44.18536.18192450.5830010402218.9906492858710.882099801765271652411111DRYL
2022-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2022285075.4960.768.09541.382737333333000.40.4FF43.49527.49192450.2968078173118.6345145199420.868752734839951652411111DRYL
2022-07-07 20:00:04FORECAST2022285075.4460.4567.94542.557233333333000.450.45FF43.44540.44192450.7364844365919.1820977400140.867746663955871652411111DRYL
2022-07-07 16:00:04FORECAST2022285075.560.4667.9842.143898666667000.440.44FF43.5538.5192450.5819007364618.9892779656710.868953314949781652411111DRYL
2022-07-07 12:00:03FORECAST2022285076.4863.9870.2340.470661333333000.440.44FF44.48540.48192449.9544630840718.2099546908970.887593637983371652411111DRYL
2022-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2022285077.6264.3170.96540.122653333333000.450.45FF45.62536.62192449.8236302431318.0481175773870.906803551984961652411111DRYL
2022-07-07 04:00:07FORECAST2022285077.6164.2970.9539.734987757576000.460.46FF45.61546.61192449.6777519916217.8679399702410.906646281757981652411111DRYL
2022-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2022285076.264.1570.17539.6932293333330.01080.01080.30.3108FF44.2539.2192449.6620297579517.8485380696740.882471846429031652411111DRYL
2022-07-06 20:00:03FORECAST2022285076.264.1570.17541.8820480.01080.01080.380.3908FF44.2547.2192450.4838867755418.867187769160.882471846429031652411111DRYL
2022-07-06 16:00:03FORECAST2022285076.6964.1670.42541.653760.01080.01080.390.4008FF44.69548.69192450.3983825307218.7607861303230.891329238204281652411111DRYL
2022-07-06 12:00:04FORECAST2022285077.2961.369.29540.2627120.09670.09670.380.4767FF45.29550.29192449.8762988966118.11323985810.901509956360111652421122DRYL
2022-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2022285079.3863.7871.5839.8840360.09720.09720.440.5372FF47.38548.38192449.7338557255117.9372012921750.931543452149611652421122DRYL
2022-07-06 04:00:07FORECAST2022285079.3863.7871.5839.0180488985510.09720.09720.470.5672FF47.38551.38192449.4075897051817.5350073104970.931543452149611652421122DRYL
2022-07-06 00:00:04FORECAST2022285082.2866.7374.50537.1755386666670.02340.02340.570.5934FF50.28546.28192448.711020097316.6810738777870.960907489090831652411111DRYL
2022-07-05 20:00:05FORECAST2022285084.0566.9475.49539.964160.00690.00690.590.5969FF52.05561.05192449.7640066842517.974440725370.973116298079961652411111DRYL
2022-07-05 16:00:04FORECAST2022285083.7767.0575.4140.899944000.730.73FF51.77563.77192450.1156917227318.4097065849810.971428549144981652411111DRYL
2022-07-05 12:00:05FORECAST2022285069.4658.1963.82542.481614666667000.640.64FF37.46533.46192450.7082158174619.1468127514580.709731078418251642411110DRYL
2022-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2022285061.5359.360.41542.598382666667000.670.67FF29.53519.53192450.7518650614119.20130043560.42311759432133162241124DRYL
2022-07-05 04:00:07FORECAST2022285060.1959.3259.75542.917483710145000.690.69FF28.19522.19192450.8710827543719.3502523494860.3744577417833162241124DRYL