Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 9, 2022

[ Wednesday, June 8, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, June 10, 2022 ]

DAY 252 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/10/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.97°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.56°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.343 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 270 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.35 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.37 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.77 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.14 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 130 in SWE DAY: 159 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.15 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 60.13 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -33 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-10 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	252	-33	47.96996	43.16	45.56498	129.55593272727	2.35	2.37	3.77	6.14	T	T	15.96996	269.96996	159	464.15063703505	60.133468707034	0.3428694013741	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-32	47.95	47.95	47.95	129.91280666667	0.112	0.132	3.77	3.902	T	F	15.95	269.95	160	464.77864403185	60.380698124906	0.34211236991995	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-09 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	252	-32	44.79	37.89	41.34	130.38199333333	1.2975	1.3175	3.77	5.0875	T	F	12.79	266.79	160	464.93719480169	60.619438233053	0.23180395382715	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-09 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	252	-32	45.77	38.5	42.135	130.137524	1.2645	1.2845	3.77	5.0545	T	F	13.77	267.77	160	464.85460562839	60.495027396475	0.26377738100764	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	252	-32	46.07	37.45	41.76	130.28196425	1.2704	1.2904	3.77	5.0604	T	F	14.07	268.07	160	464.90340813501	60.568529198349	0.27399565665296	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	43.78	38.43	41.105	131.67580933333	1.2344	1.2544	3.77	5.0244	T	F	11.78	254.78	159	464.86887328292	61.211985123403	0.20123859397014	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	45.72	40.61	43.165	132.610428	1.3356	1.3556	3.77	5.1256	T	F	13.72	261.72	159	465.18430549823	61.688289851003	0.26209340013193	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	45.08	41.41	43.245	132.56554666667	1.1652	1.1852	3.77	4.9552	T	F	13.08	261.08	159	465.16917523423	61.665406007408	0.24103473667917	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	45.16	40.97	43.065	131.68125866667	1.1496	1.1696	3.77	4.9396	T	F	13.16	261.16	159	464.8707145948	61.214760815116	0.24361583468378	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	45	40.64	42.82	131.50643466667	1.1634	1.1934	3.77	4.9634	T	F	13	262	159	464.81162942935	61.125720177857	0.2384685579229	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-08 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	46.95	40.47	43.71	131.61457292754	0.9286	0.9586	3.77	4.7286	T	F	14.95	261.95	159	464.84817994957	61.180794680205	0.30505012688091	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	46.15	41.37	43.76	131.97622266667	1.0108	1.0408	3.77	4.8108	T	F	14.15	247.15	159	464.97034394791	61.365029646266	0.27675315899914	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	45.3	42.18	43.74	133.010116	0.7044	0.7944	3.77	4.5644	T	F	13.3	259.3	159	465.31897110098	61.892130323141	0.24816838421357	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	43.79	40.57	42.18	133.17865333333	0.8374	0.9174	3.77	4.6874	T	F	11.79	257.79	159	465.37571488131	61.97811100193	0.2015288878022	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	43.51	41.17	42.34	131.961828	0.8322	0.9222	3.77	4.6922	T	F	11.51	257.51	159	464.96548362472	61.357695176021	0.19349557658079	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	48.34	42.08	45.21	131.43402133333	0.4509	0.5609	3.77	4.3309	T	F	16.34	259.34	159	464.78714825175	61.08884395878	0.3570154788683	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-07 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	51.23	43.65	47.44	131.20820066667	0.3628	0.4428	3.77	4.2128	T	F	19.23	263.23	159	464.71077488293	60.973864602802	0.4728381586468	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	51.33	43.6	47.465	131.96591066667	0.2907	0.3707	3.77	4.1407	T	F	19.33	261.33	159	464.96686214496	61.359775392782	0.47694791230247	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	52.15	42.76	47.455	132.04402933333	0.2247	0.3347	3.79	4.1247	T	F	20.15	270.15	159	464.99323630936	61.399580535035	0.5107008081563	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	53.86	41.76	47.81	132.19015333333	0.2655	0.4455	3.79	4.2355	T	F	21.86	270.86	159	465.0425561607	61.474046805409	0.58056318885676	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	46.86	41.79	44.325	131.83208666667	0.2566	0.4466	3.79	4.2366	T	F	14.86	264.86	159	464.92166876811	61.291593730249	0.30180336983818	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	51.49	43.42	47.455	131.472872	0.3127	0.5027	3.8	4.3027	T	F	19.49	268.49	159	464.80028327216	61.108628148204	0.48352843925025	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	51.46	42.76	47.11	131.79175650666	0.0979	0.2679	3.81	4.0779	T	F	19.46	267.46	159	464.90804595544	61.271047990547	0.48229419440806	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	52.18	42.06	47.12	133.35845466667	0.0877	0.2977	2.82	3.1177	F	F	20.18	262.18	159	465.43622429271	62.069855617564	0.51193568932024	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	50.64	41.82	46.23	133.48145466667	0.1513	0.3813	3.38	3.7613	T	F	18.64	264.64	159	465.47760216154	62.132627451274	0.44866385637723	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	55.68	43.39	49.535	133.40568666667	0.2804	0.5304	3.37	3.9004	T	F	23.68	268.68	159	465.45211492329	62.093959001794	0.65217480560733	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-06-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	51.32	45.29	48.305	132.88061333333	0.2833	0.5733	3.36	3.9333	T	F	19.32	268.32	159	465.27535315174	61.826074295687	0.47653681933699	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-06-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	52.19	43.65	47.92	132.63559733333	0.1218	0.4018	3.5	3.9018	T	F	20.19	269.19	159	465.19278975553	61.701123544385	0.51234729153279	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-05 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	55.05	45.12	50.085	132.05281866667	0.1305	0.3905	3.86	4.2505	T	F	23.05	271.05	159	464.99620340734	61.404059329238	0.62785148980409	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	52.63	45.9	49.265	133.01086666667	0.1014	0.3314	3.58	3.9114	T	F	20.63	266.63	159	465.3192238921	61.892513246549	0.53043856079272	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	56.59	43.81	50.2	133.80176666667	0.139	0.339	4.31	4.649	T	F	24.59	277.59	159	465.58529621313	62.29613516734	0.68620907056694	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	57.2	44.81	51.005	134.43453935371	0.139	0.259	4.23	4.489	T	F	25.2	276.2	159	465.79778723692	62.619310959172	0.70818913722214	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-06-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	59.35	46.83	53.09	132.92442393873	0.2309	0.3509	4.21	4.5609	T	F	27.35	280.35	159	465.29011066044	61.848419923925	0.77936955790208	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-06-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	60.7	45.68	53.19	133.1555948194	0.0252	0.1252	3.91	4.0352	T	F	28.7	272.7	159	465.3679528888	61.966346576793	0.81844923091138	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-06-04 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	60.76	45.64	53.2	132.84029442462	0.0252	0.0652	3.98	4.0452	T	F	28.76	278.76	159	465.26177036243	61.805510559466	0.82007938853616	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-06-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	54.51	46.51	50.51	134.77591784443	0.2124	0.2624	3.87	4.1324	T	F	22.51	265.51	159	465.91228359897	62.793755657046	0.60658466880702	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	57.64	47.56	52.6	135.31848352703	0	0.02	4.47	4.49	T	F	25.64	279.64	159	466.09405281442	63.071140407817	0.72358468055794	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-06-03 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	57.88	47.56	52.72	134.89491070337	0	0.02	4.6	4.62	T	F	25.88	280.88	159	465.95216978416	62.854576335076	0.73181115278726	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-06-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	53.73	48.49	51.11	133.84765764884	0.0057	0.0057	4.48	4.4857	T	F	21.73	277.73	159	465.60071832564	62.319565547503	0.57531240026631	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	58.18	48.01	53.095	134.40910029975	0.0058	0.0158	4.52	4.5358	T	F	26.18	276.18	159	465.78925115064	62.606314176453	0.74191825203456	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-06-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	58.18	47.98	53.08	133.62067585763	0.0058	0.0158	4.59	4.6058	T	F	26.18	282.18	159	465.52442133291	62.203687806736	0.74191825203456	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-06-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	49.65	42.88	46.265	136.8523397587	0.9747	1.0047	3.84	4.8447	T	F	17.65	248.65	159	466.60656907438	63.856200724609	0.4085692560992	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	49.84	42.35	46.095	138.44911237727	0.9492	0.9992	4.2	5.1992	T	F	17.84	256.84	159	467.13799089393	64.674840196965	0.41620375907752	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	48.19	42.52	45.355	138.97545891518	0.8938	0.9538	4.28	5.2338	T	F	16.19	256.19	159	467.31269245907	64.944995891386	0.35125617624741	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	55.66	48.57	52.115	136.99717693329	0	0.01	4.12	4.13	T	F	23.66	270.66	159	466.65486126155	63.930398595028	0.65141156424434	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-06-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	51.09	48.57	49.83	137.58275062209	0	0.01	4.11	4.12	T	F	19.09	259.09	159	466.84992455926	64.230496748579	0.46708945520872	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-06-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	252	-33	50.41	48.77	49.59	136.82983959554	0	0.01	4.24	4.25	T	F	18.41	253.41	159	466.59906538598	63.844675272194	0.43928639187101	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L