Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 5, 2022

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DAY 248 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/06/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.37°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.48°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.93°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.172 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 243 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.90 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.53 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.43 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 137 in SWE DAY: 155 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.72 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 63.78 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -37 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-06 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2022	248	-37	43.37006	38.48	40.92503	137.23308272727	1.02	1.9	2.53	4.43	T	F	11.37006	243.37006	155	464.72451935953	63.775578410658	0.17194041764527	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	248	-36	37.61	37.61	37.61	138.969332	0.0043	0.8843	2.53	3.4143	T	F	5.61	237.61	156	465.81342368915	64.733780326714	0.071906481911459	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-05 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	248	-36	41.36	34.54	37.95	138.62498666667	0.5018	1.3818	2.53	3.9118	T	F	9.36	241.36	156	465.69784532573	64.557357598975	0.13003891384235	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-06-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	248	-36	44.68	34.67	39.675	138.395332	0.6236	1.5036	2.53	4.0336	T	F	12.68	244.68	156	465.62070629136	64.439732233267	0.20341923130242	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-36	44.33	34.01	39.17	137.99191466667	0.9848	1.8648	2.53	4.3948	T	F	12.33	244.33	156	465.48509287284	64.233179214314	0.19468976671262	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.39	35.02	38.705	139.15550933333	1.1351	1.5551	2.53	4.0851	T	F	10.39	237.39	155	465.37322528851	64.759248195119	0.15053941734391	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.1	36.84	38.97	140.13468133333	1.2517	2.1817	2.53	4.7117	T	F	9.1	243.1	155	465.70242267382	65.261060597558	0.12518396772512	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-04 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.57	36.03	39.3	140.29773784369	1.2218	2.1518	2.53	4.6818	T	F	10.57	244.57	155	465.75716275349	65.344676318812	0.15433119169503	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.65	36.49	39.57	139.46611095732	1.1727	2.1027	2.53	4.6327	T	F	10.65	244.65	155	465.47773815639	64.918369877882	0.1560364683514	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	46.78	35.96	41.37	139.58269890125	1.055	1.855	2.53	4.385	T	F	14.78	240.78	155	465.51694700225	64.978111846846	0.26048154858993	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-04 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	44.81	36.16	40.485	139.45340314781	1.0198	1.8698	2.53	4.3998	T	F	12.81	239.81	155	465.47346378334	64.911858599586	0.20672005087851	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	45.44	36.84	41.14	141.11037428069	1.1945	1.7345	2.53	4.2645	T	F	13.44	233.44	155	466.02963702461	65.761616506437	0.22315882590054	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.25	34.55	37.9	141.89571319878	1.5204	2.2604	2.53	4.7904	T	F	9.25	238.25	155	466.29242467581	66.164896158561	0.12796926952121	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	45.01	35.24	40.125	141.56755955506	1.5827	2.3627	2.53	4.8927	T	F	13.01	243.01	155	466.18268268295	65.996344694256	0.21185957714166	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.3	35.18	38.24	141.12811021888	1.5324	2.2724	2.53	4.8024	T	F	9.3	241.3	155	466.0355775561	65.770720355258	0.12890717111293	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.53	35	38.765	141.24655030523	1.4644	2.4444	2.53	4.9744	T	F	10.53	240.53	155	466.07524139491	65.83152002971	0.15348317957595	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.94	35.14	39.04	140.79307737876	1.5169	2.5269	2.53	5.0569	T	F	10.94	239.94	155	465.92331535986	65.598777392028	0.16232153067971	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.94	36.18	39.06	142.29970466452	1.0388	1.9288	2.25	4.1788	T	F	9.94	226.94	155	466.42740298739	66.372481692543	0.14133279810185	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.33	35.64	38.485	143.42515965568	1.1017	1.9817	2.52	4.5017	T	F	9.33	236.33	155	466.80270119353	66.951251946383	0.12947218823694	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.31	35.83	39.07	143.82096146816	1.2136	2.1336	2.52	4.6536	T	F	10.31	236.31	155	466.93443187874	67.15495893539	0.14887421797933	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.44	35.92	38.68	142.30024217013	1.1752	2.0852	2.52	4.6052	T	F	9.44	234.44	155	466.4275824821	66.372757942032	0.13155854287484	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	40.27	35.62	37.945	141.90145297673	1.0864	2.0064	2.57	4.5764	T	F	8.27	230.27	155	466.2943433734	66.167844839516	0.11053517497417	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.92	37.21	40.065	140.52306183333	1.0098	2.0298	2.61	4.6398	T	F	10.92	228.92	155	465.83276949197	65.460247071313	0.16188287274486	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.73	36.05	39.39	141.67388133333	0.958	1.888	2.43	4.318	T	F	10.73	224.73	155	466.21824910554	66.050948899213	0.15775408337349	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.17	36.06	39.115	142.96137333333	1.1084	1.9384	2.65	4.5884	T	F	10.17	231.17	155	466.64817531376	66.712664006349	0.1459897597663	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.75	34.62	38.185	143.91672070171	0.9537	1.8337	2.58	4.4137	T	F	9.75	230.75	155	466.96628255764	67.204256063965	0.13756228258075	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.51	34.93	38.22	142.42418103808	1.0547	1.8347	2.56	4.3947	T	F	9.51	232.51	155	466.46896410638	66.436460192532	0.13289820628403	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.69	35.21	38.45	142.25608986799	1.3331	2.0131	2.61	4.6231	T	F	9.69	226.69	155	466.41283743817	66.35006651819	0.13638595004148	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.87	35.85	39.36	141.26764508333	1.1117	1.7617	2.7	4.4617	T	F	10.87	228.87	155	466.08230447332	65.842349567959	0.16078960141666	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.67	36.78	39.225	140.790396	0.7758	1.3858	2.74	4.1258	T	F	9.67	218.67	155	465.92241650292	65.597401524723	0.13599536847704	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-05-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	41.41	36.74	39.075	141.91869866667	0.7225	1.3825	2.78	4.1625	T	F	9.41	223.41	155	466.30010810822	66.176704530845	0.13098725607761	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-05-31 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.8	36.81	40.305	141.72342933333	0.756	1.316	2.83	4.146	T	F	11.8	226.8	155	466.23482046393	66.076397630759	0.18191190982259	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-05-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.56	35.09	39.325	140.42684533333	0.6275	1.1975	2.78	3.9775	T	F	11.56	227.56	155	465.80048964912	65.410893316147	0.17630194353034	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.33	36.16	39.745	140.08474133333	0.82	1.36	2.76	4.12	T	F	11.33	226.33	155	465.68565266482	65.235454196196	0.17102938484595	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-05-31 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.3	36.22	39.76	140.57411597449	0.82	1.38	2.81	4.19	T	F	11.3	227.3	155	465.84989453231	65.486437100689	0.17034915446106	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-05-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.95	37.16	40.555	140.79358666667	1.2285	1.8685	2.81	4.6785	T	F	11.95	228.95	155	465.92348608364	65.599038717952	0.18547406302323	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-05-30 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	44.26	36.16	40.21	140.75111066667	1.1705	1.8005	2.89	4.6905	T	F	12.26	228.26	155	465.90924649612	65.577243914198	0.19297156576503	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-05-30 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.52	36.16	39.34	140.65456933333	1.1705	1.8105	2.81	4.6205	T	F	10.52	228.52	155	465.8768764166	65.527711414736	0.15327165837995	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-05-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	44.06	36.86	40.46	140.17879720219	0.2538	1.0738	2.83	3.9038	T	F	12.06	230.06	155	465.71723515181	65.283681859908	0.18811356718514	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.71	37.08	40.395	140.61663134037	0.3929	1.2129	2.85	4.0629	T	F	11.71	220.71	155	465.86415372509	65.508247959053	0.17979524978172	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-05-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.74	37.08	40.41	140.40213098341	0.3929	1.2229	2.75	3.9729	T	F	11.74	228.74	155	465.79219691488	65.398217042293	0.18049908171937	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	42.49	36.98	39.735	141.87454923172	0.1702	1.2802	2.49	3.7702	T	F	10.49	231.49	155	466.28534972614	66.154023805749	0.15263825108072	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-29 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.94	39.3	41.62	141.07518662558	0.1984	1.1884	2.64	3.8284	T	F	11.94	235.94	155	466.01785036741	65.743555211433	0.18523525075734	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.94	39.29	41.615	141.44859064845	0.1919	1.1819	2.73	3.9119	T	F	11.94	227.94	155	466.1428741949	65.935252595687	0.18523525075734	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	43.65	40.79	42.22	142.34739738107	0.1564	0.5164	2.76	3.2764	F	F	11.65	232.65	155	466.44332854744	66.396993844493	0.17839275427102	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-05-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	40.27	39.2	39.735	143.4797835591	0.0473	0.5273	2.78	3.3073	F	F	8.27	223.27	155	466.82088898909	66.979360113021	0.11053517497417	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-05-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	248	-37	40.26	39.2	39.73	143.1973504292	0.0097	0.4897	2.83	3.3197	F	F	8.26	229.26	155	466.72682169981	66.834044241657	0.11036648810606	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L