Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 29, 2022

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DAY 272 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/30/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.15°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.96°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.06°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.443 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 368 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.59 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.59 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 80 in SWE DAY: 179 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.41 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 36.71 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -13 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-30 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	272	-13	56.15006	37.95998	47.05502	80.263947083333	0	0	2.59	2.59	F	F	24.15006	368.15006	179	457.40537013787	36.713160424379	0.44252244217402	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-30 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	272	-12	44.24	44.24	44.24	81.933088	0	0	2.59	2.59	F	F	12.24	356.24	180	458.53036495914	37.568808742869	0.12415746124662	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2022-06-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	272	-12	52.32	45.65	48.985	81.715661333333	0.0089	0.0089	2.59	2.5989	F	F	20.32	364.32	180	458.45337490673	37.462820721002	0.31944966926284	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-29 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	272	-12	52.42	42.37	47.395	81.471082666667	0.0239	0.0239	2.59	2.6139	F	F	20.42	364.42	180	458.3667195922	37.343632903545	0.32248491810886	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	272	-12	53.99	43.2	48.595	81.770388916667	0.0411	0.0411	2.59	2.6311	F	F	21.99	365.99	180	458.47275776457	37.489495710105	0.3715782077767	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	53.8	42.84	48.32	83.911186666667	0.1016	0.1116	2.59	2.7016	F	F	21.8	351.8	179	458.70090062394	38.490136896424	0.36550513552211	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	53.1	44.28	48.69	84.967329333333	0.1109	0.2009	2.59	2.7909	F	F	21.1	360.1	179	459.07381604276	39.006276116016	0.34343037158386	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	53.62	44.89	49.255	84.914958666667	0.0881	0.1781	2.59	2.7681	F	F	21.62	360.62	179	459.05534794816	38.98066589673	0.35978259403363	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	53.76	44.71	49.235	83.880884	0.0785	0.1685	2.59	2.7585	F	F	21.76	360.76	179	458.69018622768	38.475338302902	0.36423081855575	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	54.09	44.86	49.475	83.379481333333	0.0737	0.1637	2.59	2.7537	F	F	22.09	362.09	179	458.51278084671	38.230557851703	0.3747875530614	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	53.96	44.43	49.195	82.7101815	0.0383	0.0783	2.59	2.6683	F	F	21.96	360.96	179	458.27561803281	37.904059544518	0.37061713002476	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	53.28	44.39	48.835	83.446048	0.0473	0.0773	2.59	2.6673	F	F	21.28	343.28	179	458.53634635253	38.263045967477	0.34905953312124	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	50.69	44.5	47.595	86.556857333333	0.0424	0.0924	2.59	2.6824	F	F	18.69	359.69	179	459.63318307897	39.784403853433	0.27178716714114	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	52.73	44.43	48.58	86.579434666667	0.1008	0.1508	2.59	2.7408	F	F	20.73	361.73	179	459.6411119595	39.795467623012	0.33196884642401	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	52.71	44.53	48.62	83.965001333333	0.1048	0.1448	2.59	2.7348	F	F	20.71	362.71	179	458.71992634456	38.516419227148	0.3313536391074	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	52.57	44.75	48.66	83.124009333333	0.0679	0.1379	2.59	2.7279	F	F	20.57	361.57	179	458.4223032841	38.105899816795	0.32705999229465	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	51.46	44.47	47.965	82.943825	0.0829	0.1529	2.59	2.7429	F	F	19.46	363.46	179	458.35845416703	38.018003409701	0.29386069466189	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	50.61	44.37	47.49	84.703769333333	0.0849	0.1849	2.59	2.7749	F	F	18.61	343.61	179	458.98084879435	38.877407944695	0.26954195507235	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	53.73	44.23	48.98	87.755757333333	0.034	0.104	2.59	2.694	F	F	21.73	358.73	179	460.0535935763	40.372351518209	0.36327606352416	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	55.84	43.96	49.9	87.630953333333	0.0718	0.1118	2.59	2.7018	F	F	23.84	361.84	179	460.00988904086	40.311105119412	0.43216716686945	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-06-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	60.01	44	52.005	84.689504	0.0728	0.1228	2.59	2.7128	F	F	28.01	364.01	179	458.97581511404	38.870434130004	0.57244914531452	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	57.04	44.64	50.84	84.213029333333	0.0291	0.0891	2.59	2.6791	F	F	25.04	364.04	179	458.80758094134	38.637576272169	0.47243880689342	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	58.39	44.51	51.45	84.010916083333	0.0399	0.0899	2.59	2.6799	F	F	26.39	365.39	179	458.73615706055	38.538844795205	0.51806302090804	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	55.99	45.94	50.965	84.877905333333	0.0053	0.0253	2.59	2.6153	F	F	23.99	349.99	179	459.04227990399	38.962547177689	0.43717145026815	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	54.62	45.96	50.29	86.815804	0.0119	0.0419	2.59	2.6319	F	F	22.62	362.62	179	459.72409465594	39.911316895728	0.39193718352592	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	54.41	45.98	50.195	86.834664	0.011	0.061	2.59	2.651	F	F	22.41	362.41	179	459.73071373124	39.920562057332	0.38511484068459	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	58.43	46.97	52.7	84.472736	0	0.04	2.59	2.63	F	F	26.43	367.43	179	458.89930368575	38.764479730831	0.51941419008082	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	55.02	47.17	51.095	84.118933333333	0	0.04	2.59	2.63	F	F	23.02	360.02	179	458.77433334608	38.591607561783	0.40502278289576	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	58.65	46.7	52.675	83.828531083333	0	0.03	2.59	2.62	F	F	26.65	367.65	179	458.67167337578	38.449772628626	0.52684121902855	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	59.21	46.89	53.05	84.614834666667	0	0.02	2.59	2.61	F	F	27.21	359.21	179	458.94946423954	38.833933036984	0.54569837487757	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	58.46	44.61	51.535	86.89522	0.0011	0.0311	2.59	2.6211	F	F	26.46	368.46	179	459.75196422433	39.950248076705	0.52042742145564	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	58.38	47.89	53.135	86.628282666667	0.0011	0.0811	2.59	2.6711	F	F	26.38	371.38	179	459.65826521756	39.819406129336	0.51772519558521	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	60.08	47.15	53.615	84.865446666667	0	0.07	2.59	2.66	F	F	28.08	371.08	179	459.03788568006	38.956455205161	0.57477589024564	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	61.52	48.13	54.825	84.645249333333	0	0.03	2.59	2.62	F	F	29.52	367.52	179	458.96019820586	38.848800411211	0.62195122317562	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	61.43	48.14	54.785	83.953374086957	0	0.03	2.59	2.62	F	F	29.43	374.43	179	458.71581585011	38.510740487668	0.61904762859378	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	63.67	49.21	56.44	86.425144	0	0.06	2.59	2.65	F	F	31.67	362.67	179	459.58691791866	39.719865561636	0.68894430148979	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	60.98	48.4	54.69	87.961916	0	0.06	2.59	2.65	F	F	28.98	373.98	179	460.12575698835	40.473543185646	0.60443200066335	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	61.12	48.4	54.76	87.865976	0	0.06	2.59	2.65	F	F	29.12	371.12	179	460.09217902263	40.42644835979	0.60899590871506	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	59.29	48.35	53.82	86.478590666667	0.0592	0.1092	2.59	2.6992	F	F	27.29	375.29	179	459.60569327212	39.746052616549	0.54838486510129	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	58.82	48.32	53.57	85.9908	0.0328	0.0428	2.59	2.6328	F	F	26.82	372.82	179	459.43424205396	39.507118021613	0.53257403710535	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-23 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	57.52	48.35	52.935	85.487452416667	0.0328	0.0428	2.59	2.6328	F	F	25.52	374.52	179	459.25709997198	39.260719480871	0.48865032456117	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-23 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	56.26	47.95	52.105	86.647476	0.0279	0.0379	2.59	2.6279	F	F	24.26	368.26	179	459.66500448531	39.828812444181	0.44620400879326	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-22 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	61.13	50.43	55.78	87.5804	0	0.01	2.6	2.61	F	F	29.13	385.13	179	459.99218206	40.286299301688	0.60932133680645	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	60.1	49.6	54.85	88.190644	0	0	2.61	2.61	F	F	28.1	381.1	179	460.20577632244	40.585843786396	0.57544020018175	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-06-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	54.53	49.59	52.06	87.788734666667	0	0	2.61	2.61	F	F	22.53	371.53	179	460.06513944224	40.388536455878	0.38900911841483	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	51.45	49.33	50.39	88.060482666667	0	0	2.62	2.62	F	F	19.45	358.45	179	460.16024573851	40.521933343745	0.29356879065768	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-06-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	272	-13	51.43	49.63	50.53	88.234689416667	0	0	2.61	2.61	F	F	19.43	365.43	179	460.22118005139	40.607472884806	0.29298538538625	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L