Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 19, 2022

[ Saturday, June 18, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, June 20, 2022 ]

DAY 262 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/20/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.95°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.41°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.072 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 248 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.34 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.23 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.53 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.76 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 116 in SWE DAY: 169 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.76 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 54.09 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -23 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-20 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	262	-23	40.94996	33.87002	37.40999	116.38100083333	0.34000000000003	1.23	6.53	7.76	T	T	8.94996	247.94996	169	464.75590671768	54.088757567006	0.072155090815818	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	262	-22	39.54	39.54	39.54	117.95878133333	0.0018	0.8918	6.53	7.4218	T	T	7.54	246.54	170	465.79138998327	54.944184717986	0.054602158805352	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	262	-22	41	37.59	39.295	117.50302533333	0.0345	0.9245	6.53	7.4545	T	T	9	248	170	465.63836982991	54.713917166296	0.072849259947993	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	262	-22	38.88	34.33	36.605	117.57764533333	0.0438	0.9338	6.53	7.4638	T	T	6.88	245.88	170	465.66343563603	54.751610279915	0.047636276238795	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	262	-22	41.57	33.56	37.565	117.07507008333	0.045	0.935	6.53	7.465	T	T	9.57	248.57	170	465.49452243268	54.497803837214	0.081119878779546	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	41.96	33.78	37.87	118.29944666667	0.0626	0.4926	6.53	7.0226	T	T	9.96	248.96	169	465.40312006617	55.056931580768	0.087172996754509	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	41.3	33.48	37.39	118.389428	0.0936	0.6636	6.53	7.1936	T	T	9.3	249.3	169	465.4333991105	55.102393892787	0.077118214300284	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	41	34.46	37.73	118.36242266667	0.091	0.661	6.53	7.191	T	T	9	249	169	465.42431244489	55.088749188944	0.072849259947993	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	40.74	34.1	37.42	118.11363466667	0.1139	0.6839	6.53	7.2139	T	T	8.74	248.74	169	465.34057175106	54.963066287382	0.069297440406708	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	40.35	33.65	37	118.218704	0.1156	0.6856	6.53	7.2156	T	T	8.35	247.35	169	465.37594397496	55.016140969496	0.064220972578689	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	40.38	33.47	36.925	117.78673491667	0.1162	0.7262	6.53	7.2562	T	T	8.38	249.38	169	465.23045858686	54.79797670073	0.0646009452584	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.49	33.75	36.62	118.96231733333	0.1534	0.3434	6.53	6.8734	T	T	7.49	237.49	169	465.62601623896	55.391949902475	0.054047796199485	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.3	34.2	36.75	119.007144	0.1762	0.6062	6.53	7.1362	T	T	7.3	246.3	169	465.64107606211	55.414614591238	0.051981613980453	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	40.03	33.71	36.87	118.96854933333	0.121	0.591	6.53	7.121	T	T	8.03	247.03	169	465.62811002431	55.395100778414	0.060274895002013	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.43	33.41	36.42	118.64803866667	0.1935	0.7535	6.53	7.2835	T	T	7.43	245.43	169	465.52038401939	55.233080523254	0.053388432786366	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.17	33.55	36.36	118.60064266667	0.2206	0.9506	6.53	7.4806	T	T	7.17	242.17	169	465.50444642881	55.209126510648	0.050604313407832	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.33	33.26	36.295	118.79662666667	0.2352	0.9252	6.53	7.4552	T	T	7.33	240.33	169	465.57033644928	55.308185446239	0.052303630467799	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.09	33.28	36.185	120.35251066667	0.2028	0.8328	6.47	7.3028	T	T	7.09	229.09	169	466.09226405516	56.09537418135	0.04977124810929	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.12	33.79	36.455	121.08032533333	0.128	0.778	6.51	7.288	T	T	7.12	239.12	169	466.33570523979	56.464078904983	0.050082360509865	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.56	33.41	36.485	121.18965866667	0.1332	0.7932	6.51	7.3032	T	T	7.56	238.56	169	466.37223644883	56.519492146843	0.05482515464434	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	43.03	33.83	38.43	120.28437866667	0.072	0.702	6.51	7.212	T	T	11.03	240.03	169	466.0694520567	56.060874456154	0.10549685714377	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	41.2	34.02	37.61	120.16028533333	0.0601	0.7001	6.52	7.2201	T	T	9.2	239.2	169	466.02789290538	55.998044584802	0.075674672492756	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	43.07	34.18	38.625	119.96619433333	0.0788	0.6988	6.54	7.2388	T	T	11.07	240.07	169	465.96286509722	55.899791626369	0.10623199810323	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	43.71	35.93	39.82	118.676868	0.1411	0.7811	6.48	7.2611	T	T	11.71	229.71	169	465.53007736131	55.247651541038	0.11849904458635	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	42.18	35.41	38.795	119.635212	0.1054	0.7054	6.48	7.1854	T	T	10.18	241.18	169	465.85189955332	55.732290763664	0.090732609174862	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	42.34	35.97	39.155	119.44748666667	0.0825	0.8225	6.52	7.3425	T	T	10.34	241.34	169	465.7889210546	55.637315937151	0.093388159803782	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	42.91	35.38	39.145	118.34152533333	0.0435	0.6635	6.49	7.1535	T	T	10.91	243.91	169	465.41728055122	55.078190896923	0.10331345469487	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.68	35.25	37.465	118.367	0.055	0.735	6.51	7.245	T	T	7.68	239.68	169	465.4258526548	55.091061901191	0.056178231596608	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	39.68	35.21	37.445	118.51964241667	0.0551	0.6251	6.48	7.1051	T	T	7.68	242.68	169	465.47720448125	55.168191828228	0.056178231596608	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	45.59	36.14	40.865	116.49277066667	0.0821	0.7121	6.18	6.8921	T	T	13.59	250.59	169	464.79370034522	54.145105941627	0.16017520626672	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	46.23	37.25	41.74	116.23463466667	0.0487	0.6387	6.18	6.8187	T	T	14.23	257.23	169	464.70639852742	54.014978460097	0.17631665404593	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	46.17	37.25	41.71	116.086488	0.044	0.594	6.2	6.794	T	T	14.17	258.17	169	464.65626933867	53.940314434709	0.17476117929417	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	46.4	38.34	42.37	115.511176	0.0214	0.3514	6.2	6.5514	T	T	14.4	259.4	169	464.46141894502	53.650484708967	0.18077110940282	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	46.83	38	42.415	115.92241709675	0.0402	0.3802	6.19	6.5702	T	T	14.83	254.83	169	464.60072976182	53.857639578904	0.19234893707031	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	46.76	38.04	42.4	116.2219489626	0.0402	0.4002	6.31	6.7102	T	T	14.76	254.76	169	464.70210673557	54.008584531835	0.19043394693303	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-14 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	53.03	41.75	47.39	114.99252238586	0.1667	0.4967	6.05	6.5467	T	T	21.03	268.03	169	464.28551376154	53.389362334656	0.40236524054305	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	51.35	39.52	45.435	116.0647615999	0.0249	0.3249	6.27	6.5949	T	T	19.35	270.35	169	464.64891607301	53.929365671667	0.3387917857436	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	51.63	39.52	45.575	116.49242981223	0.0249	0.3349	6.36	6.6949	T	T	19.63	263.63	169	464.79358510569	54.144934090098	0.34912878393008	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	55.04	40.59	47.815	116.22171171787	0.0093	0.1993	6.23	6.4293	T	F	23.04	264.04	169	464.70202647027	54.008464955139	0.48181684458547	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	54.3	40.36	47.33	116.49536556757	0.0082	0.3182	6.23	6.5482	T	F	22.3	258.3	169	464.79457765237	54.146414237436	0.45230966168221	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	54.3	40.36	47.33	116.81408465754	0.0082	0.3182	6.38	6.6982	T	T	22.3	258.3	169	464.90228907506	54.3071353535	0.45230966168221	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-06-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	46.15	39.88	43.015	120.30692188627	0.0858	0.2058	6.2	6.4058	T	F	14.15	252.15	169	466.07700042847	56.072289283534	0.17424462472796	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	46.08	39.04	42.56	120.05930268339	0.0579	0.1679	6.69	6.8579	T	T	14.08	259.08	169	465.9940639082	55.946922367416	0.17244431580463	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	46.08	39.13	42.605	119.81791581596	0.025	0.135	6.62	6.755	T	T	14.08	261.08	169	465.91316459393	55.824744332861	0.17244431580463	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	37.74	36.09	36.915	121.63069313403	0.02	0.05	6.5	6.55	T	F	5.74	246.74	169	466.51949497583	56.743089534448	0.037290702663825	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-06-12 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	37.7	36.09	36.895	121.72109264111	0.0142	0.0442	6.47	6.5142	T	F	5.7	242.7	169	466.54965841427	56.788934193521	0.036963903931817	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-06-12 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	262	-23	38.95	37.44	38.195	121.02224954468	0.008	0.028	6.24	6.268	T	F	6.95	250.95	169	466.31629642986	56.434647193285	0.048339657626819	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L