MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 15, 2022

[ Tuesday, June 14, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 16, 2022 ]

DAY 258 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/16/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.510
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 254

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.89 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.89 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 123 in
SWE DAY: 165
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-16 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022258-2752.8400432.2899842.56501123.0115650.130.895.896.78TT20.84004253.84004165464.97430114195 57.1972164682530.5099756530024716 3123129WETL
2022-06-16 00:00:01FORECAST2022258-2640.2240.2240.22121.9550640.00670.76675.896.6567TT8.22241.22166465.1226281997856.7240598899520.13181109425974161123126WETL
2022-06-15 12:00:01FORECAST2022258-2649.8640.6845.27122.053118666670.0140.7745.896.664TT17.86250.86166465.1556934619856.7737030525910.40330454843401162123127.5WETL
2022-06-15 08:00:01FORECAST2022258-2648.6139.0343.82121.84380.02040.78045.896.6704TT16.61249.61166465.085098609556.6677357379560.36017995733612162123127.5WETL
2022-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2022258-2650.3933.4241.905122.195702416670.0230.7835.896.673TT18.39251.39166465.2037597973256.8459001953080.42198539954418162123127.5WETL
2022-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2022258-2750.9233.7542.335120.6499520.03370.46375.896.3537TF18.92250.92165464.1745504805456.0026372350990.44084345531125162122125WETL
2022-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2022258-2750.8835.9143.395120.632349333330.01850.46855.896.3585TF18.88253.88165464.1685713786155.9937452520990.43941495899903162122125WETL
2022-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2022258-2751.1534.9443.045120.629342666670.02480.47485.896.3648TF19.15254.15165464.1675500767155.992226452950.44907168969633162122125WETL
2022-06-14 12:00:01FORECAST2022258-2752.0935.9444.015120.386513333330.02740.47745.896.3674TF20.09255.09165464.0850402632455.8695798874510.48289055080812162122125WETL
2022-06-14 08:00:03FORECAST2022258-2751.2635.2343.245120.481562430080.03380.50385.896.3938TF19.26254.26165464.1173426010755.9175825874750.45301491139997162123127.5WETL
2022-06-14 04:00:05FORECAST2022258-2752.2535.8644.055120.734518295940.01060.59065.896.4806TT20.25255.25165464.2032714073156.045358364760.48866601601101162123127.5WETL
2022-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2022258-2751.5635.7943.675120.83283571920.0220.3025.896.192TF19.56253.56165464.2366548221256.0950314469510.463791595943162122125WETL
2022-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2022258-2751.7335.5343.63121.053368266570.02340.44345.896.3334TF19.73258.73165464.3115057359256.2064716942570.46991071301798162122125WETL
2022-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2022258-2750.4935.6543.07121.417459145560.02020.53025.896.4202TF18.49257.49165464.4349900433956.3905164293620.42553122124489162123127.5WETL
2022-06-13 12:00:03FORECAST2022258-2750.6335.6743.15121.259955717870.01810.45815.896.3481TF18.63256.63165464.381585522456.3108904966420.43050544268013162122125WETL
2022-06-13 08:00:03FORECAST2022258-2750.4135.743.055121.340800234230.02680.57685.896.4668TT18.41256.41165464.4090000559656.351759702770.42269406786058162123127.5WETL
2022-06-13 04:00:07FORECAST2022258-2750.2435.7643121.812148657540.02110.72115.896.6111TT18.24253.24165464.5687231863956.5901143704270.4166785888984162123127.5WETL
2022-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2022258-2749.4734.7742.12125.54191121960.01810.91815.526.4381TT17.47246.47165465.8258856305758.4806719776240.38969529144089162123127.5WETL
2022-06-12 20:00:02FORECAST2022258-2748.8234.5141.665125.000568016720.01140.99145.936.9214TT16.82251.82165465.6441572626958.2057841515040.367318306286171621241210WETL
2022-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2022258-2749.5934.4942.04124.577523815960.00930.91935.936.8493TT17.59252.59165465.5019677118357.9910824689950.39386921802914162123127.5WETL
2022-06-12 12:00:04FORECAST2022258-2748.7934.5441.665125.222566467360.00580.81585.936.7458TT16.79251.79165465.7187121449958.318492386670.36629566431975162123127.5WETL
2022-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2022258-2745.7435.2940.515125.002896641110.01290.80295.876.6729TT13.74251.74165465.644939514858.2069662456240.26834022912485162123127.5WETL
2022-06-12 04:00:07FORECAST2022258-2749.2134.8242.015124.441485544680.00590.68595.816.4959TT17.21254.21165465.4562113604757.9220623976950.38069588308569162123127.5WETL
2022-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2022258-2746.2733.0939.68124.002203243810.00490.65495.766.4149TT14.27242.27165465.3083511472857.6992607300050.28438990459885162123127.5WETL
2022-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2022258-2749.8633.3341.595126.702194418550.00310.68315.826.5031TT17.86256.86165466.2145508027759.0704066565670.40330454843401162123127.5WETL
2022-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2022258-2747.5935.0741.33126.837441923710.00250.65255.876.5225TT15.59254.59165466.2597807597459.1391978634760.32623619372084162123127.5WETL
2022-06-11 12:00:01FORECAST2022258-2747.1135.841.455126.170204891890.00610.70615.856.5561TT15.11255.11165466.0364901166558.7999194451150.31072690232092162123127.5WETL
2022-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2022258-2746.2335.4440.835126.099215649690.0080.7085.86.508TT14.23246.23165466.0127113106858.7638373790640.28316278979791162123127.5WETL
2022-06-11 04:00:07FORECAST2022258-2745.3136.1740.74126.175980161170.00880.68885.886.5688TT13.31249.31165466.0384244325558.8028549955450.2556618297746162123127.5WETL
2022-06-11 00:00:04FORECAST2022258-2749.8835.9642.92129.460295442320.00560.71565.466.1756TF17.88245.88165467.1338594010560.4752874491710.40400577934913162123127.5WETL
2022-06-10 20:00:04FORECAST2022258-2749.4634.7642.11130.682992291970.00620.76626.226.9862TT17.46254.46165467.5393432939261.0994403958730.38934803032339162123127.5WETL
2022-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2022258-2749.435.9442.67131.238093387380.00890.89896.287.1789TT17.4254.4165467.723016669861.383076941140.38726632744292162123127.5WETL
2022-06-10 12:00:04FORECAST2022258-2747.6935.1341.41129.496494522590.1590.7596.267.019TT15.69252.69165467.1458822279360.493754179180.32950662865431162123127.5WETL
2022-06-10 08:00:04FORECAST2022258-2747.7335.1241.425128.459627369460.1590.6296.467.089TT15.73248.73165466.8010687588959.9650913484320.33081847815267162123127.5WETL
2022-06-10 04:00:07FORECAST2022258-2748.7434.6941.715127.860300135280.15960.64966.427.0696TT16.74252.74165466.6013460333359.6597881473490.36459337152408162123127.5WETL
2022-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2022258-2746.1137.1341.62128.801606881750.01470.61474.535.1447TF14.11254.11165466.9148955125460.1393888190380.27949674794796162123127.5WETL
2022-06-09 20:00:04FORECAST2022258-2746.0937.1441.615128.789058458850.01470.46475.976.4347TF14.09248.09165466.9107205585460.1329920850760.27888798655726162122125WETL
2022-06-09 16:00:04FORECAST2022258-2747.9535.0341.49127.655041556350.01350.39355.76.0935TF15.95252.95165466.5328747410759.5552735124740.33807044712039162122125WETL
2022-06-09 12:00:04FORECAST2022258-2747.8236.2942.055127.653900276020.11810.55815.816.3681TF15.82248.82165466.5324939266659.5546924552380.33377772167539162123127.5WETL
2022-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2022258-2747.7736.2442.005127.9139706280.12160.62165.986.6016TT15.77249.77165466.6192438465359.6871202518430.33213240720946162123127.5WETL
2022-06-09 04:00:07FORECAST2022258-2750.336.2443.27128.148587613280.12140.66146.26.8614TT18.3252.3165466.6974543062459.8066196120550.41879954878092162123127.5WETL
2022-06-09 00:00:04FORECAST2022258-2742.5736.4239.495128.801512229870.2440.5346.987.514TT10.57234.57165466.9148640216560.1393405685920.18274991705228161123126WETL
2022-06-08 20:00:04FORECAST2022258-2742.6136.5439.575129.589319995850.17830.47836.667.1383TT10.61243.61165467.1767073685360.5411118257860.18371135679947161122124WETL
2022-06-08 16:00:04FORECAST2022258-2743.4535.8439.645129.934780326230.02730.33735.916.2473TF11.45244.45165467.2913627260360.7174005641520.2046220408458161122124WETL
2022-06-08 12:00:04FORECAST2022258-2742.7239.8641.29126.615314132710.00160.16165.495.6516TF10.72254.72165466.1854877876959.0262219803470.18637148817308161122124WETL
2022-06-08 08:00:04FORECAST2022258-2741.2939.8640.575126.3831836385900.165.856.01TF9.29250.29165466.1078045032658.9081882519180.1536504791527161122124WETL
2022-06-08 04:00:07FORECAST2022258-2742.1640.841.48125.6292289275400.135.165.29TF10.16263.16165465.855174701258.5250263896140.17307657485577161122124WETL