Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 31, 2022

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DAY 243 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/01/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.31°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.73°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.608 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 206 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.01 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 148 in SWE DAY: 150 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.87 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 69.01 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -42 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-01 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	243	-42	54.30992	39.16004	46.73498	148.12470375	0	0.22	4.79	5.01	T	F	22.30992	206.30992	150	465.87346244174	69.007368609169	0.60792584665813	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-01 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	243	-41	44.01	44.01	44.01	147.93434533333	0.0003	0.2203	4.79	5.0103	T	F	12.01	196.01	151	466.31060179859	68.983353599067	0.25632188045096	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-31 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	243	-41	49.55	42.18	45.865	147.959092	0.1171	0.3371	4.79	5.1271	T	F	17.55	201.55	151	466.31887279204	68.996117000773	0.43832044378824	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	243	-41	50.44	42.88	46.66	147.69477866667	0.1284	0.3484	4.79	5.1384	T	F	18.44	202.44	151	466.23050537067	68.859811298369	0.47011209757426	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	243	-41	50.19	36.15	43.17	147.96110225	0.1359	0.3559	4.79	5.1459	T	F	18.19	202.19	151	466.31954464816	68.99715382686	0.46115369838105	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-31 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	50.72	36.58	43.65	148.56193866667	0.174	0.324	4.79	5.114	T	F	18.72	200.72	150	466.02000664724	69.232835644967	0.48016327927668	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	49.03	35.15	42.09	148.58965466667	0.1872	0.3472	4.79	5.1372	T	F	17.03	200.03	150	466.02929049263	69.247131338851	0.41991490809453	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	49.05	37.35	43.2	148.49590133333	0.1845	0.3445	4.79	5.1345	T	F	17.05	200.05	150	465.99788392409	69.198775792734	0.42061985193008	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.1	37.82	42.96	148.29898386885	0.2095	0.3695	4.79	5.1595	T	F	16.1	199.1	150	465.93189389349	69.097226416494	0.38745492699229	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.33	37.17	42.75	148.39209000703	0.2011	0.3611	4.79	5.1511	T	F	16.33	200.33	150	465.9630992869	69.145238169338	0.39541919477043	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.42	37.8	43.11	148.41314831674	0.184	0.354	4.79	5.144	T	F	16.42	200.42	150	465.97015615319	69.156097896339	0.39854777643419	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	51.4	38.1	44.75	150.28835056505	0.1869	0.2269	4.79	5.0169	T	F	19.4	198.4	150	466.59704568142	70.124100373986	0.50461317224258	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	51.06	38.11	44.585	149.37478929224	0.1984	0.4584	4.79	5.2484	T	F	19.06	200.06	150	466.29201054263	69.652270823462	0.49238464914778	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-05-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	49.68	37.89	43.785	149.38127064845	0.2374	0.4874	4.79	5.2774	T	F	17.68	198.68	150	466.29417714037	69.655616677203	0.44294437678515	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-05-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	49.32	38.19	43.755	150.15232138107	0.2497	0.4997	4.79	5.2897	T	F	17.32	198.32	150	466.55167081737	70.053816417447	0.43016061481026	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.92	37.54	43.23	150.62072622576	0.1718	0.5318	4.79	5.3218	T	F	16.92	198.92	150	466.70784934446	70.295875203527	0.41604236652587	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-29 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	49.44	38.02	43.73	150.3193784292	0.1648	0.6048	4.79	5.3948	T	F	17.44	200.44	150	466.60739336124	70.140133340533	0.43441442449939	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	50.3	36.27	43.285	152.29318599208	0.0836	0.7236	4.41	5.1336	T	F	18.3	197.3	150	467.26397780581	71.16111987938	0.46509323720361	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	52.75	36.99	44.87	152.07047613401	0.0799	0.7099	4.69	5.3999	T	F	20.75	200.75	150	467.19005831818	71.045814613523	0.55301296329801	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	51.64	37.09	44.365	151.31691973689	0.061	0.741	4.69	5.431	T	F	19.64	201.64	150	466.93963556157	70.655867356244	0.51324313963879	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.84	37.1	42.97	151.00855098077	0.0864	0.7364	4.69	5.4264	T	F	16.84	199.84	150	466.83701980449	70.496381904859	0.41323106032427	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	49.99	36.95	43.47	151.08493788491	0.0858	0.7658	4.77	5.5358	T	F	17.99	200.99	150	466.8624465358	70.535883735657	0.45400092518344	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	52.52	38.22	45.37	151.02561644002	0.0906	0.8106	4.85	5.6606	T	F	20.52	204.52	150	466.84270077223	70.505206664649	0.5448027380772	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	53.18	36.94	45.06	153.4543134839	0.0509	0.7709	4.6	5.3709	T	F	21.18	193.18	150	467.64869031266	71.762708723575	0.56829905902079	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	53.18	35.98	44.58	153.2916944662	0.0509	0.7809	4.76	5.5409	T	F	21.18	202.18	150	467.59487859621	71.678411263729	0.56829905902079	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	53.68	37.85	45.765	153.11579813828	0.051	0.651	4.69	5.341	T	F	21.68	200.68	150	467.5366483006	71.587247063445	0.58594433664435	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	50.87	35.02	42.945	154.01876598427	0.0519	0.7019	4.72	5.4219	T	F	18.87	196.87	150	467.83529903003	72.055415440488	0.48555344302038	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	47.69	35.89	41.79	153.76189331077	0.0282	0.7182	4.77	5.4882	T	F	15.69	193.69	150	467.7504097684	71.922188602877	0.37337650532512	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-27 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	49.27	35.02	42.145	153.67458226106	0.0255	0.7155	4.85	5.5655	T	F	17.27	200.27	150	467.72154328441	71.87691277873	0.42839055400271	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	52.97	35.84	44.405	153.92954468115	0.0119	0.7019	4.69	5.3919	T	F	20.97	198.97	150	467.80582015292	72.009136895331	0.5608450684423	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	50.42	33.93	42.175	156.12466985802	0.1303	0.8903	5.29	6.1803	T	F	18.42	198.42	150	468.52915719776	73.148959986357	0.46939480800249	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	50.42	34.3	42.36	155.11520671973	0.1303	0.8703	5.43	6.3003	T	T	18.42	198.42	150	468.19702002751	72.624477547127	0.46939480800249	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.57	36.18	42.375	154.60787218548	0.1382	0.8382	5.46	6.2982	T	F	16.57	196.57	150	468.02977317665	72.361087350292	0.40377649975881	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.75	35.73	42.24	154.60339212936	0.1528	0.7928	5.26	6.0528	T	F	16.75	194.75	150	468.02829533044	72.358762070606	0.41007365640705	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-26 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	52.83	35.74	44.285	154.0018936204	0.151	0.771	5.14	5.911	T	F	20.83	200.83	150	467.82972488323	72.046663523926	0.55586355924221	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	52.14	36.65	44.395	156.12391581386	0.0886	0.6686	5.09	5.7586	T	F	20.14	192.14	150	468.52890941715	73.148568010205	0.53119766075181	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.26	36.66	42.46	156.98478496333	0.0824	0.6624	5.12	5.7824	T	F	16.26	199.26	150	468.81148417952	73.596270032259	0.39299049233577	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.23	36.66	42.445	156.45338520286	0.0824	0.6924	5.03	5.7224	T	F	16.23	193.23	150	468.63712861708	73.319865203889	0.39195088728669	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	52.95	38.78	45.865	153.25767275985	0.0401	0.6101	4.92	5.5301	T	F	20.95	205.95	150	467.58361777512	71.660777080845	0.56013399500825	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	52.29	38.72	45.505	154.17127096288	0.0109	0.6809	4.9	5.5809	T	F	20.29	208.29	150	467.88567147988	72.134528637375	0.53657333198459	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	52.43	38.7	45.565	157.59815816491	0.0109	0.6809	5.04	5.7209	T	F	20.43	205.43	150	469.01244336293	73.915497230423	0.54158462714527	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-05-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	51.02	40.15	45.585	156.82614932166	0.0332	0.5332	4.92	5.4532	T	F	19.02	195.02	150	468.75945947852	73.513740988118	0.49094624762157	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-05-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	51.23	40.13	45.68	157.97932083677	0.0307	0.5707	4.74	5.3107	T	F	19.23	211.23	150	469.1371658766	74.113970844471	0.49849873437265	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	48.92	38.54	43.73	158.41507824248	0.0121	0.5921	4.73	5.3221	T	F	16.92	213.92	150	469.27960480537	74.340965312841	0.41604236652587	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	44.78	36.53	40.655	162.87441313606	0	0.97	4.96	5.93	T	F	12.78	206.78	150	470.72823122914	76.669584408025	0.27917441435799	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-05-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	38.13	35.62	36.875	163.10309575866	0	0.92	5.18	6.1	T	F	6.13	190.13	150	470.80207799293	76.789276410257	0.11797178231779	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-05-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	243	-42	36.98	35.62	36.3	162.86786126491	0	0.92	4.93	5.85	T	F	4.98	189.98	150	470.7261148504	76.666155567225	0.098694139730939	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L