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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 30, 2022

[ Sunday, May 29, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 31, 2022 ]

DAY 242 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/31/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.96°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.159
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 187

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 149 in
SWE DAY: 149
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -43

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-31 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022242-4339.4199628.5000833.96002149.263152916670.070000000000050.620000000000054.595.21TF7.41996187.41996149465.75348309052 69.519833368010.158632906304516 1113124.5WETL
2022-05-31 00:00:01FORECAST2022242-4236.9636.9636.96149.9728853333300.554.595.14TF4.96184.96150466.4917928655369.9611201603630.1128535150971161113124.5WETL
2022-05-30 12:00:01FORECAST2022242-4238.4431.7735.105149.770719868850.01310.56314.595.1531TF6.44186.44150466.4242973864169.8567027838860.13911829808769161113124.5WETL
2022-05-30 08:00:02FORECAST2022242-4239.2429.5934.415149.860327340370.01450.56454.595.1545TF7.24187.24150466.4542182426469.9029818351370.15492119913717161113124.5WETL
2022-05-30 04:00:05FORECAST2022242-4239.4928.6634.075149.915005650080.02150.57154.595.1615TF7.49187.49150466.4724725472569.9312233575250.16009308726248161113124.5WETL
2022-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2022242-4339.4328.8634.145151.854277231720.04340.44344.595.0334TF7.43182.43149466.6203438136370.8582950514340.15884168189559161112123WETL
2022-05-29 20:00:02FORECAST2022242-4339.8429.6334.735150.895123958910.0690.6594.595.249TF7.84183.84149466.300123932170.362415002790.1675207106765161113124.5WETL
2022-05-29 16:00:02FORECAST2022242-4339.5628.2833.92150.867875981780.06170.65174.595.2417TF7.56183.56149466.2910156076670.3483351141170.16156116387985161113124.5WETL
2022-05-29 12:00:03FORECAST2022242-4340.0429.7834.91151.626025381070.06010.65014.595.2401TF8.04184.04149466.5442110922570.7402443924670.17186291434326161113124.5WETL
2022-05-29 08:00:02FORECAST2022242-4339.7129.5534.63152.03812355910.08490.76494.595.3549TF7.71184.71149466.6816331203270.953399799110.16473642373793161113124.5WETL
2022-05-29 04:00:08FORECAST2022242-4339.0529.7634.405151.745249095870.10020.84024.595.4302TF7.05186.05149466.5839833116670.8019027717720.15106499922681161113124.5WETL
2022-05-29 00:00:03FORECAST2022242-4338.5129.3233.915153.669200658750.18210.66214.595.2521TF6.51181.51149467.2241378373671.797959789940.14045570433684161113124.5WETL
2022-05-28 20:00:03FORECAST2022242-4338.4929.8734.18153.595457467350.08250.93254.595.5225TF6.49183.49149467.199658948971.7597453448440.14007270315785161113124.5WETL
2022-05-28 16:00:02FORECAST2022242-4338.9929.6634.325152.837254403560.10750.97754.595.5675TF6.99184.99149466.9477090261671.3670057975890.1498606005021161113124.5WETL
2022-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2022242-4339.7130.3735.04152.484004314110.09780.94784.595.5378TF7.71185.71149466.8301586701271.184131928610.16473642373793161113124.5WETL
2022-05-28 08:00:03FORECAST2022242-4339.2729.8134.54152.640313884910.09451.06454.595.6545TF7.27186.27149466.8821865166671.2650434971740.15553594834609161114126WETL
2022-05-28 04:00:08FORECAST2022242-4339.3130.5434.925152.617892440020.14161.18164.595.7716TF7.31187.31149466.8747247781371.2534365291510.15635810720948161114126WETL
2022-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2022242-4340.7830.6335.705155.062880150570.14481.22484.35.5248TF8.78174.78149467.6859055225372.5207235161510.1885452991561161114126WETL
2022-05-27 20:00:03FORECAST2022242-4342.1930.7136.45154.87232646620.14971.22974.465.6897TF10.19184.19149467.6228658182972.4218411380690.22297511380134161114126WETL
2022-05-27 16:00:03FORECAST2022242-4340.3831.0635.72154.775587471620.06551.02554.465.4855TF8.38182.38149467.590850572572.3716485937120.17940759270789161114126WETL
2022-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2022242-4340.7531.0635.905155.441137984270.07851.10854.465.5685TF8.75180.75149467.810951875572.7170667210330.1878501991468161114126WETL
2022-05-27 08:00:04FORECAST2022242-4340.5431.1335.835155.14239064410.08561.14564.515.6556TF8.54180.54149467.7122004699972.5619889143280.18302882522796161114126WETL
2022-05-27 04:00:07FORECAST2022242-4341.7231.9736.845154.959412927730.08841.11844.625.7384TF9.72185.72149467.6516798829172.4670297693210.21111940747176161114126WETL
2022-05-27 00:00:03FORECAST2022242-4342.6332.0437.335155.447255347820.08731.18734.395.5773TF10.63180.63149467.8129731968872.7202426995570.23440922519956161114126WETL
2022-05-26 20:00:03FORECAST2022242-4340.8632.2636.56157.456349858020.08881.33884.916.2488TT8.86182.86149468.4751293491273.7643838665750.19040662165579161114126WETL
2022-05-26 16:00:03FORECAST2022242-4340.6733.2136.94156.431197386390.11241.34245.036.3724TT8.67182.67149468.1376824287773.2313382040240.18600433195513161114126WETL
2022-05-26 12:00:04FORECAST2022242-4336.8833.2935.085155.768500185480.16021.360256.3602TT4.88182.88149467.9190759590472.8870526703130.11154186553995161114126WETL
2022-05-26 08:00:04FORECAST2022242-4335.8533.2934.57155.791189462690.16021.26024.846.1002TT3.85180.85149467.9265666431672.8988363985310.095617641771961161114126WETL
2022-05-26 04:00:07FORECAST2022242-4337.7133.2635.485155.325920287060.16151.20154.765.9615TF5.71182.71149467.7728753603672.6572523506730.12568586594288161114126WETL
2022-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2022242-4342.233.7937.995157.423451813860.03971.22974.645.8697TF10.2175.2149468.4643140214773.7472693648740.22323140777128161114126WETL
2022-05-25 20:00:03FORECAST2022242-4342.0533.0137.53158.147490296660.0411.2514.655.901TF10.05186.05149468.7021349721674.1240663425340.21940460867944161114126WETL
2022-05-25 16:00:04FORECAST2022242-4342.0533.0137.53157.614559869520.04411.25414.595.8441TF10.05180.05149468.5271287284573.8466971814660.21940460867944161114126WETL
2022-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2022242-4346.835.6441.22154.981968759850.02681.12684.565.6868TF14.8187.8149467.6591418316372.4787345096070.35703357459108162114128WETL
2022-05-25 08:00:04FORECAST2022242-4345.7735.6440.705155.738400296220.02011.23014.545.7701TF13.77190.77149467.9091380541472.8714206445330.3246189941024162114128WETL
2022-05-25 04:00:08FORECAST2022242-4346.3835.2540.815159.169059498250.02071.13074.785.9107TF14.38188.38149469.0369411910574.6561687993150.3436747728402162114128WETL
2022-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2022242-4346.7135.7841.245158.453849321660.07010.93014.695.6201TF14.71178.71149468.8026314335274.2835815227640.35415551444914162113126WETL
2022-05-24 20:00:04FORECAST2022242-4346.835.7741.285159.374960836770.07010.90014.585.4801TF14.8194.8149469.1043175847474.7634822434270.35703357459108162113126WETL
2022-05-24 16:00:04FORECAST2022242-4345.0135.5940.3159.425099575810.11360.94364.575.5136TF13.01200.01149469.1207189792474.789617336340.30150881988156162123127.5WETL
2022-05-24 12:00:05FORECAST2022242-4341.8932.6937.29163.337221136060.1211.5314.66.131TT9.89196.89149470.3940346876.8328544636130.21536447160633161115127.5WETL
2022-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2022242-4342.6532.537.575163.310555758660.11771.46774.836.2977TT10.65186.65149470.3853984010376.8189008336310.23493654126902161114126WETL
2022-05-24 04:00:08FORECAST2022242-4341.9232.537.21162.962762598240.11771.46774.586.0477TT9.92187.92149470.2727029170976.6369388419120.21611869862007161114126WETL
2022-05-24 00:00:04FORECAST2022242-4344.4734.5739.52161.905983784750.05330.57335.045.6133TF12.47175.47149469.9296632144676.0844244323750.28555233978661162113126WETL
2022-05-23 20:00:04FORECAST2022242-4341.8334.5738.2161.682174073180.04280.57284.945.5128TF9.83183.83149469.8568943821575.9674841869780.21386059904056161113124.5WETL
2022-05-23 16:00:04FORECAST2022242-4340.8833.7437.31163.39858801960.04080.720855.7208TF8.88181.88149470.4139077261976.8649683072440.19087370571288161113124.5WETL
2022-05-23 12:00:03FORECAST2022242-4336.7333.1334.93163.883093610230.01960.94964.65.5496TF4.73177.73149470.5707012479577.1185822828490.1091119058298161113124.5WETL
2022-05-23 08:00:04FORECAST2022242-4334.1433.1333.635164.313642434240.01440.94444.615.5544TF2.14165.14149470.7098716948977.3440535479380.072967022921445161113124.5WETL
2022-05-23 04:00:10FORECAST2022242-4332.1731.0731.62166.730581983460.02611.17614.645.8161TF0.17158.17149471.4883034061778.6115192253050.052224625799016161114126WETL