MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 21, 2022

[ Friday, May 20, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 22, 2022 ]

DAY 233 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/22/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.380
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.66 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.77 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 164 in
SWE DAY: 140
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.56 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -52

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-22 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022233-5245.5399628.1800436.86164.1975062500.668.118.77TT13.53996122.53996140466.24590032939 76.5564141333710.3798873935653416 2113126WETL
2022-05-22 00:00:01FORECAST2022233-5133.1633.1633.16167.99596321260.00070.66078.118.7707TT1.16110.16141468.0045435917678.6228740885710.057159963523156161113124.5WETL
2022-05-21 12:00:01FORECAST2022233-5143.2231.8237.52167.893068061940.21050.87058.118.9805TT11.22120.22141467.9705904991778.5690182016650.29316289421089162113126WETL
2022-05-21 08:00:01FORECAST2022233-5139.2230.9935.105167.866686226060.20380.86388.118.9738TT7.22116.22141467.9618836555178.5552106893560.16971227756495161113124.5WETL
2022-05-21 04:00:05FORECAST2022233-5136.128.7732.435167.692193063890.20560.86568.118.9756TT4.1113.1141467.9042806767378.4638949706630.10093332960144161113124.5WETL
2022-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2022233-5240.1529.6934.92168.725606122680.23590.89598.119.0059TT8.15106.15140467.7514289062878.9216433569590.19497962639591161113124.5WETL
2022-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2022233-5240.3327.6533.99168.779403817650.23640.91648.119.0264TT8.33114.33140467.769211991878.9498087242270.20012134306818161113124.5WETL
2022-05-20 16:00:01FORECAST2022233-5237.6128.5733.09169.183553207430.35941.03948.119.1494TT5.61111.61140467.9027278379979.1614460510820.13116986713176161114126WETL
2022-05-20 12:00:02FORECAST2022233-5241.3130.5935.95168.423374995520.37871.05878.119.1687TT9.31115.31140467.6514797760378.763440545530.22951137063023161114126WETL
2022-05-20 08:00:02FORECAST2022233-524131.1236.06168.51847436020.30120.99128.119.1012TT9112140467.6829378173778.8132151652780.21996268847376161114126WETL
2022-05-20 04:00:06FORECAST2022233-5241.4830.9336.205168.795386099680.22190.91198.119.0219TT9.48116.48140467.7744945434478.9581764140430.2348446339975161113124.5WETL
2022-05-20 00:00:02FORECAST2022233-5240.3631.135.73162.422038905860.27030.30038.118.4103TT8.36108.36140465.650840782875.6319589781690.20098613461385161112123WETL
2022-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2022233-5238.3830.9534.665162.446950828090.2610.3618.118.471TT6.38112.38140465.6592087532175.6449185869810.14877997823993161112123WETL
2022-05-19 16:00:02FORECAST2022233-5241.1430.5335.835162.450155647290.33320.44328.118.5532TT9.14114.14140465.6602852207175.6465858128640.22424654366205161112123WETL
2022-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2022233-5241.1130.8535.98162.681294497340.40420.52428.118.6342TT9.11113.11140465.7378994035675.7668443714410.2233246143843161113124.5WETL
2022-05-19 08:00:02FORECAST2022233-5240.5730.5135.54163.445737498730.40230.61238.118.7223TT8.57110.57140465.9942676276576.1647767425830.20710206769546161113124.5WETL
2022-05-19 04:00:06FORECAST2022233-5240.230.5135.355164.278258268940.28350.66358.118.7735TT8.2111.2140466.2729011494776.5985000788380.1963997787522161113124.5WETL
2022-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2022233-5239.9330.935.415165.324230195230.20060.81066.97.7106TT7.9397.93140466.6221397762777.143946050560.18880530791444161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2022233-5240.530.8335.665164.467050167560.15960.73967.137.8696TT8.5105.5140466.3360053479976.6969071865070.20505131798113161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2022233-5240.3930.5235.455163.805330506020.24850.74857.137.8785TT8.39106.39140466.1146908666476.3520709911210.20185315951415161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2022233-5240.3330.6335.48164.423104322080.17320.69327.137.8232TT8.33106.33140466.3213190332676.6739988870170.20012134306818161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2022233-5237.9230.5834.25164.681998699790.19670.80677.378.1767TT5.92104.92140466.4078156414676.8089712890380.13807894266839161113124.5WETL
2022-05-18 04:00:07FORECAST2022233-5242.1729.2335.7165.821824342880.22160.82167.648.4616TT10.17109.17140466.7879556289877.4036303836820.25717757062464162113126WETL
2022-05-18 00:00:04FORECAST2022233-5242.8530.8136.83168.45233313330.17970.77977.678.4497TT10.8597.85140467.6610596803878.7785966187510.28021927830082162113126WETL
2022-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2022233-5243.8330.6237.225168.736835075070.08260.66267.718.3726TT11.83103.83140467.755140890978.9275220640220.31508602055611162113126WETL
2022-05-17 16:00:04FORECAST2022233-5243.8330.5237.175168.320186075170.08290.68297.728.4029TT11.83101.83140467.6173371832378.7094372066550.31508602055611162113126WETL
2022-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2022233-5240.7229.3635.04168.164875480030.06780.64787.718.3578TT8.72101.72140467.5659319786478.6281667298910.21153709388009161113124.5WETL
2022-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2022233-5241.3631.9636.66169.432626688780.11570.79577.788.5757TT9.36102.36140467.9849441660979.2919183408640.23107290615443161113124.5WETL
2022-05-17 04:00:09FORECAST2022233-5241.3131.9636.635169.274714452730.11570.78577.818.5957TT9.31104.31140467.9328251649179.2091953628470.22951137063023161113124.5WETL
2022-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2022233-5246.1231.438.76171.013790992850.07340.68347.688.3634TT14.12101.12140468.5056571376480.1209285287030.40277329148925162113126WETL
2022-05-16 20:00:03FORECAST2022233-5246.1530.6438.395171.380516706830.0690.6497.658.299TT14.15111.15140468.6261296910980.3133882487790.40396681974342162113126WETL
2022-05-16 16:00:04FORECAST2022233-5246.7529.4138.08171.465476200380.05280.61287.698.3028TT14.75112.75140468.6540236093480.3579853313980.42801088490196162113126WETL
2022-05-16 12:00:03FORECAST2022233-5243.8732.1638.015171.9956035660.00410.53417.698.2241TT11.87109.87140468.8279392379480.6363443778350.31654777445891162113126WETL
2022-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2022233-5244.6832.1538.415172.097435880820.07770.63777.638.2677TT12.68102.68140468.8613199358180.689830944650.34673829510498162113126WETL
2022-05-16 04:00:07FORECAST2022233-5244.6932.1538.42172.652455522350.07770.58777.728.3077TT12.69101.69140469.043104035680.9814436575740.34711767100867162113126WETL
2022-05-16 00:00:04FORECAST2022233-5242.3831.8937.135175.728235660330.05170.45176.977.4217TT10.3898.38140470.0458739967482.6003321168660.26418702155033162112124WETL
2022-05-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022233-5242.3232.0937.205177.376142747950.10580.51587.678.1858TT10.32105.32140470.5799125286583.4696497390010.26217445004041162113126WETL
2022-05-15 16:00:04FORECAST2022233-5242.3432.0937.215175.587969210070.10580.40587.567.9658TT10.34108.34140470.0003144245382.5264007378970.2628444344924162112124WETL
2022-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2022233-5246.4230.3338.375175.067817029890.00370.25377.637.8837TT14.42110.42140469.8312234059882.2523266541670.41474754041215162112124WETL
2022-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022233-5247.5929.8338.71175.325965662090.00320.31327.497.8032TT15.59101.59140469.9151702610482.3883310052820.46210664090607162112124WETL
2022-05-15 04:00:07FORECAST2022233-5247.729.8438.77175.237867901980.00320.31327.477.7832TT15.7100.7140469.8865281074282.3419133414090.46659778932481162112124WETL
2022-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2022233-5245.9131.3138.61176.2518241520.00720.39726.56.8972TT13.91100.91140470.2157960711982.8763918026340.39444453198485162112124WETL
2022-05-14 20:00:04FORECAST2022233-5243.2930.837.045177.591109887350.03530.37536.797.1653TT11.2999.29140470.6494124257683.5831515205170.29564249578364162112124WETL
2022-05-14 16:00:04FORECAST2022233-5243.2230.837.01176.905558112830.00670.34676.87.1467TT11.2298.22140470.4276377535683.2212638084930.29316289421089162112124WETL
2022-05-14 12:00:04FORECAST2022233-5238.9331.1335.03181.5931359366100.767.167.92TT6.9387.93140471.9363810540685.700407398180.16228220994027161113124.5WETL
2022-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2022233-5233.131.0832.09182.6256007675100.817.658.46TT1.182.1140472.2662829242586.2479136412820.056454192629055161113124.5WETL
2022-05-14 04:00:08FORECAST2022233-5233.131.0732.085182.3899513162300.817.88.61TT1.181.1140472.19106240386.1229048836410.056454192629055161113124.5WETL