MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 2, 2022

[ Sunday, May 1, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 3, 2022 ]

DAY 214 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/03/2022 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.346
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 62

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.90 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 164 in
SWE DAY: 121
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -71

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-05-03 04:00:06OBSERVATION2022214-7140.8700430.8100235.84003163.971128750.900000000000091.69000000000012.844.5300000000001TF8.8700461.87004121456.30752672799 74.821260214710.3458111332918116 21151210WETL
2022-05-03 00:00:01FORECAST2022214-7031.9731.9731.971630.00540.79542.843.6354TF-0.03000000000000152.97122456.4961908376374.4088791065330.094959059618468161113124.5DRYL
2022-05-02 12:00:01FORECAST2022214-7031.9226.2529.085162.549670395140.20540.99542.843.8354TF-0.07999999999999852.92122456.3343553619374.1769990540620.094093137504911161114126DRYL
2022-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2022214-7033.7924.929.345163.346367951680.48931.27932.844.1193TF1.7954.79122456.6205396094274.5873066773330.13056621610546161114126WETL
2022-05-02 04:00:06FORECAST2022214-7038.3126.5932.45162.975553486090.751.542.844.38TF6.3159.31122456.4874102163474.3962883394390.254796518348611621151210WETL
2022-05-02 00:00:02FORECAST2022214-7138.8825.7232.3166.454440561770.79191.58192.844.4219TF6.8851.88121457.1978263277876.1026084074490.273936304229921621151210WETL
2022-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2022214-7137.4726.5332167.202370815330.80251.59252.844.4325TF5.4756.47121457.4648705373776.4892109185760.22791879101811161115127.5WETL
2022-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2022214-7137.7326.4732.1167.309010382550.7261.5162.844.356TF5.7356.73121457.5029042773776.5443581617890.23606368695257161115127.5WETL
2022-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2022214-7137.9525.4831.715166.878643297440.70241.49242.844.3324TF5.9556.95121457.3493477501976.3218386655220.24307871753248161114126WETL
2022-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2022214-7137.8926.8432.365166.454664599740.67791.47792.844.3179TF5.8957.89121457.1979063952376.1027241647210.24115443685615161114126WETL
2022-05-01 04:00:06FORECAST2022214-7137.9924.8631.425166.723506553310.80751.60752.844.4475TF5.9957.99121457.2939532276276.2416514077340.24436616286064161115127.5WETL
2022-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2022214-7137.7324.9231.325164.194126079680.71910.72912.843.5691TF5.7350.73121456.387703867574.9361801900350.23606368695257161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2022214-7137.4226.2231.82163.702716806310.69550.94552.843.7855TF5.4255.42121456.210960832274.6829737250490.22637076000881161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-30 16:00:01FORECAST2022214-7137.0924.9531.02163.553253939030.53380.79382.843.6338TF5.0955.09121456.1571604054274.6059878918960.21630366933073161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-30 12:00:02FORECAST2022214-7137.1326.8431.985163.518278383060.56870.83872.843.6787TF5.1355.13121456.1445677081474.5879744054220.21750996770934161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-30 08:00:03FORECAST2022214-7136.6925.7631.225164.06728227370.53210.96212.843.8021TF4.6951.69121456.3421036281674.8708087293330.2044550107819161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-30 04:00:06FORECAST2022214-7136.5924.9330.76163.770628647160.60531.22532.844.0653TF4.5953.59121456.2353995275874.717958191720.20155422259207161114126WETL
2022-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2022214-7136.3725.0430.705165.297999655390.53241.43242.854.2824TF4.3744.37121456.7839258148975.505469211940.19525972738118161114126WETL
2022-04-29 20:00:03FORECAST2022214-7136.5326.3731.45165.267535126220.51391.38392.944.3239TF4.5350.53121456.7730058441275.4897487880540.19982562315309161114126WETL
2022-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2022214-7135.4924.4129.95165.744542944880.63771.41772.944.3577TF3.4949.49121456.9438917468275.7359564890310.17129549543438161114126WETL
2022-04-29 12:00:03FORECAST2022214-7135.7723.1529.46167.238683986250.84511.65512.944.5951TF3.7749.77121457.4778230379776.5079890777660.17870845103802161115127.5WETL
2022-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2022214-7136.5623.6630.11168.135915901421.01141.83142.94.7314TF4.5647.56121457.7974764567676.9721980014170.20068880794798161115127.5WETL
2022-04-29 04:00:07FORECAST2022214-7136.722.9729.835167.794308390370.90231.69232.914.6023TF4.751.7121457.6758591128676.7954042468110.20474644718294161115127.5WETL
2022-04-29 00:00:04FORECAST2022214-7136.3120.9728.64169.521145981740.811.592.814.4TF4.3146.31121458.2895588011377.6897711994320.19356395619327161115127.5WETL
2022-04-28 20:00:02FORECAST2022214-7135.6421.5928.615169.561122837940.9111.7613.014.771TF3.6453.64121458.3037342952177.7104957879160.17524200167495161115127.5WETL
2022-04-28 16:00:03FORECAST2022214-7135.3220.9328.125169.480068231140.94671.75673.034.7867TF3.3251.32121458.2749914386677.6684768176490.16689187847104161115127.5WETL
2022-04-28 12:00:04FORECAST2022214-7135.2220.828.01171.615082019121.18692.05693.035.0869TF3.2250.22121459.0301194318678.7764915955430.16433585124953161115127.5WETL
2022-04-28 08:00:03FORECAST2022214-7134.8822.3728.625171.970467387191.15391.93393.044.9739TF2.8845.88121459.1554177732678.9611717978280.15583580433391161115127.5WETL
2022-04-28 04:00:08FORECAST2022214-7134.8822.1928.535172.088597082581.15151.95153.095.0415TF2.8848.88121459.1970417606279.0225747010550.15583580433391161115127.5WETL
2022-04-28 00:00:03FORECAST2022214-7133.924.9129.405169.462396143991.07231.86232.944.8023TF1.939.9121458.2687239360877.6593160360570.13298003403296161115127.5WETL
2022-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2022214-7133.1323.5928.36169.777076867131.03081.81083.064.8708TF1.1345.13121458.3802850934977.8224648966960.11671816015219161115127.5WETL
2022-04-27 16:00:02FORECAST2022214-7132.4323.5728169.177998121480.99851.858534.8585TF0.4346.43121458.1678219147977.5119149152230.10320142957165161115127.5WETL
2022-04-27 12:00:04FORECAST2022214-7133.4927.4930.49169.366332702250.35291.18292.974.1529TF1.4945.49121458.2346495883477.6095221178770.12413723710136161114126WETL
2022-04-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022214-7133.4927.530.495170.392370389090.35291.112934.1129TF1.4938.49121458.5981625597278.1416279746320.12413723710136161114126WETL
2022-04-27 04:00:07FORECAST2022214-7133.7922.1227.955170.982506443310.46421.204234.2042TF1.7942.79121458.8068120167678.4479386918920.13056621610546161114126WETL
2022-04-27 00:00:04FORECAST2022214-7138.7426.2632.5172.355930788850.53761.24762.573.8176TF6.7449.74121459.2911929301679.1615610605970.26917031414161162114128DRYL
2022-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2022214-7136.8328.2932.56169.882812176230.38941.14942.954.0994TF4.8351.83121458.4177505491177.8772966147830.20855751072482161114126WETL
2022-04-26 16:00:04FORECAST2022214-7136.7628.1932.475169.582644335070.38941.11942.954.0694TF4.7650.76121458.3113650610577.721653215870.20650023752441161114126WETL
2022-04-26 12:00:04FORECAST2022214-7137.1929.2333.21172.11697788940.23921.22923.164.3892TF5.1953.19121459.2070401149779.0373279701240.21932666300095161114126WETL
2022-04-26 08:00:04FORECAST2022214-7137.1929.2533.22172.651985276150.23921.14923.14.2492TF5.1944.19121459.3953845789779.3155251742580.21932666300095161114126WETL
2022-04-26 04:00:07FORECAST2022214-7136.6328.6632.645172.508360998690.26961.15963.074.2296TF4.6349.63121459.3448480932379.2408268777540.20271157320534161114126WETL
2022-04-26 00:00:04FORECAST2022214-7144.6232.9438.78169.227180475180.19380.68382.893.5738TF12.6255.62121458.1852766123377.5374024963470.49532975108769162113126DRYL
2022-04-25 20:00:04FORECAST2022214-7146.2635.8641.06168.788218548910.16080.56082.953.5108TF14.2670.26121458.0294129493177.309968654720.56223752399682163113127.5DRYL
2022-04-25 16:00:03FORECAST2022214-7146.435.8341.115168.585821723170.15380.55382.93.4538FF14.472.4121457.957488681677.2051395436670.56789443571581163113127.5DRYL
2022-04-25 12:00:04FORECAST2022214-7137.7533.635.675173.958610459080.08021.02022.83.8202TF5.7545.75121459.8542956252279.9956142806030.23669678040888161114126DRYL
2022-04-25 08:00:04FORECAST2022214-7136.132.7434.42174.451686999730.02870.95872.893.8487TF4.134.1121460.0270778350280.2524997938760.18769968142986161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-25 04:00:08FORECAST2022214-7136.132.7434.42174.782687012810.01920.94922.883.8292TF4.136.1121460.1429444065380.4250202333580.18769968142986161113124.5DRYL